The Winterfell Huis Clos

THE PRINCES OF DORNE



Here is Tywin Lannister on Doran Martell.
Prince Oberyn’s presence here is unfortunate. His brother is a cautious man, a reasoned man, subtle, deliberate, even indolent to a degree. He is a man who weighs the consequences of every word and every action.
(Tyrion VI, ASoS)

The outcome of Quentyn's mission seems at odds with Tywin's opinion. We have this feeling all along Quentyn's quest: the poor boy was inadequate and never really given the means to succeed.

How to reconcile the Tywin's views on Doran Martell with the trust mistakenly put by Doran in Quentyn's success?

As we will see, a close look at the mission shows that it's not reasonable to believe that Doran and the Yronwoods wanted its success. The lamentable failure of Quentyn is not due to misfortune but largely to deliberate neglect.

We have little reliable information on the workings of Doran Martell's mind. Much of it comes from Arianne, from whom Doran has kept secrets in the past.

We are going to examine first a series of details at odds with Quentyn's views on his purpose. Then, we will try to revisit all the appearances in Quentyn's quest.

Here is the timeline of the Martell family, the numbers given correspond approximately to the years that have passed since Aegon's Landing.
  • War of the ninepenny kings 259
  • Oberyn kills Lord Yronwood in a duel 274
  • Doran travels to Norvos and marries Mellario
  • Ariane born 277
  • Harrenhal Tourney 281
  • Quentyn born 282
  • Sack of King's Landing 283
  • Pact of marriage Viserys-Arianne in Braavos
  • Oberyn tries to raise Dorne for Viserys
  • Trystane born 287
  • Quentyn sent to Yronwood
  • Ariane's fostering at Tyrosh denied
  • Mellario leaves Dorne
  • Quentyn begins his quest for Daenerys 300


Contents
  1. The Dragon Book
  2. A goodly Garment
  3. Fifty thousand Spears
  4. Quentyn's Companions
  5. Doran's Influence in the Free Cities
  6. Tyrion's Analysis
  7. House Yronwood
  8. The Dragon Queen
  9. Ser Gerris and the Windblown
  10. The other Targaryen Cause
  11. Corsairs or Mummers?
  12. Ser Archibald
  13. Quentyn?
  14. The Braavos Pact
  15. Arianne
  16. The most sentimental Man in Westeros

1. The Dragon Book

Throughout AFfC and ADwD, books about dragons form a recurring theme (Lomax's book at the Wall, Tyrion recollects all his readings on the subject for Griff, tomes about dragons are present at the Citadel, Dany mentions that her reading taught her little about dragons, Aemon's recalls Barth's theories about the gender of dragons, Dany recalls what she has read, and did not learn much from, even as early as AGoT we learn that there is a book about dragons in the library of Winterfell). Moreover, the lack of knowledge about dragons is an important aspect of Dany's present situation.

The best account of the literature about dragons is given by Tyrion aboard the Shy Maid.
Tyrion had read much and more of dragons through the years. The greater part of those accounts were idle tales and could not be relied on, and the books that Illyrio had provided them were not the ones he might have wished for. What he really wanted was the complete text of The Fires of the Freehold, Galendro’s history of Valyria. No complete copy was known to Westeros, however; even the Citadel’s lacked twenty-seven scrolls. They must have a library in Old Volantis, surely. I may find a better copy there, if I can find a way inside the Black Walls to the city’s heart.
He was less hopeful concerning Septon Barth’s
Dragons, Wyrms, and Wyverns: Their Unnatural History. Barth had been a blacksmith’s son who rose to be King’s Hand during the reign of Jaehaerys the Conciliator. His enemies always claimed he was more sorcerer than septon. Baelor the Blessed had ordered all Barth’s writings destroyed when he came to the Iron Throne. Ten years ago, Tyrion had read a fragment of Unnatural History that had eluded the Blessed Baelor, but he doubted that any of Barth’s work had found its way across the narrow sea. And of course there was even less chance of his coming on the fragmentary, anonymous, blood-soaked tome sometimes called Blood and Fire and sometimes The Death of Dragons, the only surviving copy of which was supposedly hidden away in a locked vault beneath the Citadel.
(Tyrion IV, ADwD)
It's evident that any of these books would be precious to Dany, who has no idea of how to tame her beasts.

When Arianne was locked in the tower, Doran had put a few books at her disposal, presumably so that she can reflect on her mistakes and acquire wisdom.
During the daylight hours she would try to read, but the books that they had given her were deadly dull: ponderous old histories and geographies, annotated maps, a dry-as-dust study of the laws of Dorne, The Seven-Pointed Star and Lives of the High Septons, a huge tome about dragons that somehow made them about as interesting as newts. Arianne would have given much and more for a copy of Ten Thousand Ships or The Loves of Queen Nymeria, anything to occupy her thoughts and let her escape her tower for an hour or two, but such amusements were denied her.
(The princess in the Tower, AFfC)

...a huge tome about dragons that somehow made them about as interesting as newts.   

A priori, Quentyn Martell never had access to the book. There are three possible explanations.
  • Doran did not consider the book important enough to mention to Quentyn.
  • Quentyn had access to the book, but never mentioned it in his internal monologue.
  • Doran considers the book important but chose not to tell Quentyn.
We will see that the first two options are not likely.

It is important to consider the book in the context of the existing literature on dragons, as it has been described by Tyrion.

The reports that Dany is in Meereen came necessarily with the news that she has dragons. So it's impossible that Quentyn left for Meereen without knowing that there are dragons at his destination. Secondly, when Doran talked to Arianne over the cyvasse board, the prince finally grasped a piece.
Her father plucked up a cyvasse piece. “I must know how you learned that Quentyn was abroad. Your brother went with Cletus Yronwood, Maester Kedry, and three of Lord Yronwood’s best young knights on a long and perilous voyage, with an uncertain welcome at its end. He has gone to bring us back our heart’s desire.”
She narrowed her eyes. “What is our heart’s desire?”
“Vengeance.” His voice was soft, as if he were afraid that someone might be listening. “Justice.” Prince Doran pressed the onyx dragon into her palm with his swollen, gouty fingers, and whispered, “Fire and blood.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

Note that Doran put the dragon in Arianne's palm, as if he wanted to give Arianne control over the dragons (which is coherent with the fact that he gave her the book to read). But the scene is subject to several interpretations. For instance, it could prefigure an attempt by Ariane to seduce Aegon – often seen as a black dragon (hence the onyx piece). However, we don't really get the confirmation that Doran expects dragons as much as he expects Daenerys until later, when Arianne is anxious to have news of her brother.
Prince Doran shared his secret smile with her. “From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants.”
“No dragons?”
“Elephants. Easy enough to hide a young dragon in a big cog’s hold, though. Daenerys is most vulnerable at sea. If I were her, I would keep myself and my intentions hidden as long as I could, so I might take King’s Landing unawares.”
(The Watcher, ADwD)
When Quentyn reflect on his mission, shortly before his death, he thinks:
The dragons, Prince Quentyn thought. Yes. We came for the dragons.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)

So Doran expects a dragon to come back. So there is little doubt that the presence of Dragons with Dany were central to the mission, as Quentyn understood from Doran. And Quentyn is desperate for information about dragons when he attempts the kidnapping. There is no sign that Doran Martell expected Quentyn to kidnap a dragon.
What did he know of dragons? What does any man know of dragons? They have been gone from the world for more than a century.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
Quentyn recalls having been sent books, but not mention of dragons.
I want to ride in tourneys, hawk and hunt, visit with my mother in Norvos, read some of those books my father sends me.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)

The following dialogue between Quentyn and Gerris indicates clearly that Quentyn reads the books he is given.
“The triarchs are neither kings nor princes. Volantis is a freehold, like Valyria of old. All freeborn landholders share the rule. Even women are allowed to vote, provided they own land. The three triarchs are chosen from amongst those noble families who can prove unbroken descent from old Valyria, to serve until the first day of the new year. And you would know all this if you had troubled to read the book that Maester Kedry gave you.”
“It had no pictures.”
“There were maps.”
“Maps do not count. If he had told me it was about tigers and elephants, I might have given it a try. It looked suspiciously like a history.”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Quentyn did recall a thing he had read about dragons.
Quentyn’s readings had suggested that the same thing had occurred in the Seven Kingdoms. None of the dragons bred and raised in the Dragonpit of King’s Landing had ever approached the size of Vhagar or Meraxes, much less that of the Black Dread, King Aegon’s monster.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
However, such knowledge seems common, even to the like of Barristan Selmy.
“In King’s Landing, your ancestors raised an immense Domed castle for their dragons. The Dragonpit, it is called. It still stands atop the Hill of Rhaenys, though all in ruins now. That was where the royal dragons dwelt in days of yore, and a cavernous dwelling it was, with iron doors so wide that thirty knights could ride through them abreast. Yet even so, it was noted that none of the pit dragons ever reached the size of their ancestors. The maesters say it was because of the walls around them, and the great Dorne above their heads.”
(Daenerys I, ASoS)

It is established clearly that Quentyn reads books he is given, however dull. The prince evens scolds Gerris for skipping his reading duties.
“The triarchs are neither kings nor princes. Volantis is a freehold, like Valyria of old. All freeborn landholders share the rule. Even women are allowed to vote, provided they own land. The three triarchs are chosen from amongst those noble families who can prove unbroken descent from old Valyria, to serve until the first day of the new year. And you would know all this if you had troubled to read the book that Maester Kedry gave you.”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)

Arianne's book seems the opposite of a book made of idle tales. So it's likely to be a useful book. Given its naturalistic nature, it could be Barth's book. One can conduct an argument to that effect: consider Tyrion's thoughts.
When the Halfmaester appeared on deck, yawning, the dwarf was writing down what he recalled concerning the mating habits of dragons, on which subject Barth, Munkun, and Thomax held markedly divergent views.
                           (Tyrion V, ADwD)

Let's agree that any serious book about a beast would say something about its mating habits. It's not unreasonable to infer that the list of authoritative books about dragons (at least those known to Tyrion) of a naturalistic nature is not much longer than the works of Barth, Munkun and Thomax.

Grand Maester Munkun's tome is called The Dance of the Dragons, A True Telling. It is mentioned when Tyrion meets Haldon. It tells the history of the Dance of the Dragons. As it happens, it's a subject of interest to Arianne. We know that because she has mentioned Christon Cole the Kingmaker, a pivotal character of the story, to Arys Oakheart.
“The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again. Anders Yronwood is Criston Cole reborn. He whispers in my brother’s ear that he should rule after my father, that it is not right for men to kneel to women... that Arianne especially is unfit to rule, being the willful wanton that she is.”
(The Soiled Knight, AFfC)
Hence, the book in the tower is not Munkun's.

Maester Thomax’s Dragonkin, Being a History of House Targaryen from Exile to Apotheosis, with a Consideration of the Life and Death of Dragons has been found by Samwell at the library at the Wall. Judging from the title, it's rather a history book with a side interest in Dragons. Arianne likes ancient history, when it's not too ponderous. Hence, it does not seem to be the book in the tower either.

Other books known to Tyrion include Galendro's The Fires of the Freehold (a history of Valyria) and The Death of Dragons/Blood and Fire (which is anonymous), but they seem to be of a different nature.

So, if we limit ourselves to Tyrion's considerable knowledge, we are left with Barth's Dragons, Wyrms, and Wyverns: Their Unnatural History.

How could Quentyn not have been given the book or, at least, told about the book before the mission? Moreover, Illyrio has provided books about dragons to Tyrion to bring to Dany (see comparison with Aegon below).

Daenerys mentioned to Quentyn the knowledge she acquired in books.
“One of them. All I know of dragons is what my brother told me when I was a girl, and some I read in books, but it is said that even Aegon the Conqueror never dared mount Vhagar or Meraxes, nor did his sisters ride Balerion the Black Dread. Dragons live longer than men, some for hundreds of years, so Balerion had other riders after Aegon died ... but no rider ever flew two dragons.”
(Daenerys VIII, ADwD)

But Quentyn has nothing to say to Daenerys about dragons. Here is the subject of conversation they settled on.
“Tell me of this other Daenerys. I know less than I should of the history of my father’s kingdom. I never had a maester growing up.” Only a brother.
“It would be my pleasure, Your Grace,” said Quentyn.
(Daenerys VIII, ADwD)

In fact, Barth's book would have been crucially important for Quentyn. Indeed, here is what Tyrion thinks when he saw the preparation of the Yunkai Army in Meereen.
[…]Crossbows were much in evidence as well. Every other man seemed to be clutching one, with a quiverfull of bolts hanging from his hip.
If anyone had thought to ask him, Tyrion could have told them not to bother. Unless one of those long iron scorpion bolts chanced to find an eye, the queen’s pet monster was not like to be brought down by such toys. Dragons are not so easy to kill as that. Tickle him with these and you’ll only make him angry.
The eyes were where a dragon was most vulnerable. The eyes, and the brain behind them. Not the underbelly, as certain old tales would have it. The scales there were just as tough as those along a dragon’s back and flanks. And not down the gullet either. That was madness. These would-be dragonslayers might as well try to quench a fire with a spear thrust. “Death comes out of the dragon’s mouth,” Septon Barth had written in his Unnatural History, “but death does not go in that way.”
(Tyrion X, ADwD)
The inadequateness of crossbows is established shortly before Quentyn's death.
Quentyn heard the rattle of chains, the deep thrum of a crossbow.
“No,” he screamed, “no, don’t, don’t,” but it was too late. The fool was all that he had time to think as the quarrel caromed off Viserion’s neck to vanish in the gloom. A line of fire gleamed in its wake—dragon’s blood, glowing gold and red.
  (The Dragontamer, ADwD)
So it seems Barth's book could have saved Quentyn.
 

2. A goodly Garment

Throughout the story, especially the later books, the concern the main characters have for their appearance, especially their clothing in important occasions, is a leitmotiv: Davos laments his lamentable appearance before appearing at Manderly's court, Sansa ponders at length what she should wear before meeting the Lords Declarants, Melisandre notes that Jon neglects the trappings of power, Arianne considers what to wear before facing again her father, Theon worries about his clothings for the Winterfell wedding, Jaime hesitates between wearing a white cloak or Lannister colors before meeting the Blackfish, Jon choose carefully his horse to make a good impression on Tormund, etc, etc.

When Tyrion inquires about the chests Illyrio has provided to meet Dany, Duck and Haldon reply.
“It’s just armor,” said Duck, with a shrug. “Clothing as well,” Haldon broke in. “Court clothes, for all our party. Fine woolens, velvets, silken cloaks. One does not come before a queen looking shabby ... nor empty-handed. The magister has been kind enough to provide us with suitable gifts.”
(Tyrion III, ADwD)
One does not come before a queen looking shabby ...

Those are the clothes prepared for Aegon's wedding proposal. So Illyrio has planned gifts and fine clothes for Aegon. Here is how Quentyn appears to Dany when they first meet at Meereen court.
Greenguts was huge and bald as a stone, with arms thick enough to rival even Strong Belwas. Gerrold was a lean, tall youth with sun streaks in his hair and laughing blue-green eyes. That smile has won many a maiden’s heart, I’ll wager. His cloak was made of soft brown wool lined with sandsilk, a goodly garment.
Frog, the squire, was the youngest of the three, and the least impressive, a solemn, stocky lad, brown of hair and eye. His face was squarish, with a high forehead, heavy jaw, and broad nose. The stubble on his cheeks and chin made him look like a boy trying to grow his first beard. Dany had no inkling why anyone would call him Frog. Perhaps he can jump farther than the others.
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)

Quentyn does look shabby. He has completely neglected his appearance to the point of choosing Frog for a pseudonym. Barristan Selmy confirmed the impression left by Quentyn.
Prince Quentyn was listening intently, at least. That one is his father’s son. Short and stocky, plain-faced, he seemed a decent lad, sober, sensible, dutiful ... but not the sort to make a young girl’s heart beat faster. And Daenerys Targaryen, whatever else she might be, was still a young girl, as she herself would claim when it pleased her to play the innocent. Like all good queens she put her people first—else she would never have wed Hizdahr zo Loraq—but the girl in her still yearned for poetry, passion, and laughter. She wants fire, and Dorne sent her mud.
(The Discarded Knight, ADwD)

Of course, Quentyn has to pretend being a deserter, a circumstance which could explain his poor appearance. But Gerris Drinkwater did catch Dany's attention with his sandsilk cloak. Whatever the logistical difficulties of the mission were, it was thus possible to provide fine clothes for Frog. Gerris could have advised Quentyn, could have lend him his pretty cloak. It was also certainly possible to advise Quentyn not to take from his boot the present he came to offer the queen.
Stone-faced, the stocky lad bent, unlaced his boot, and drew a yellowed parchment from a hidden flap within.
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)

It's interesting to recall Doran's story, who had once succeeded in a quest similar to Quentyn's. Doran Martell went once to Norvos to meet Mellario.
“I remember,” echoed Areo Hotah in his deep voice. “The bears danced and the bells rang, and the prince wore red and gold and orange. My lady asked me who it was who shone so bright.”
(The Captain of the Guards, AFfC)

We do not know the exact circumstances, but, just like Quentyn, Doran Martell traveled across the world to meet his future wife. The first impression made by Doran on Mellario is central to the story of Quentyn's parents, and Quentyn is not aware of it.

Nobody told him, it seems.


3. The fifty thousand Spears of Dorne

The armed forces of Dorne are well-known to amount to fifty thousand soldiers. However, a Dornish state secret is revealed to Arianne by Doran.
Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth.
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)
But when Quentyn is facing Dany, he promises the inflated numbers.
Prince Quentyn answered him. “Dorne is fifty thousand spears and swords, pledged to our queen’s service.”
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)

To have a point of comparison, the Young Wolf's host was comprised of less than twenty thousand swords for all the north. Perhaps, with more time, a larger army could have been assembled. But we see that the northern lords after the war, and they have only a fraction of the numbers they could gather before. So, the north, more populated than Dorne, can not gather a number anywhere close to fifty thousand. During Robert's Rebellion Lewyn Martell led a host of ten thousand Dornishmen.

The relative weakness of the armies of Dorne is, of course, a state secret that Doran would not divulge to any potential enemy. Hence one would understand a certain prudence. However, Quentyn is attempting to gain an ally, and Dorne's forces are part of the marriage basket. So Quentyn can not lie on this point. Moreover, Quentyn is adverse to deception, as we can see in three instances.
Back in the Planky Town Quentyn had played the wineseller, but the mummery had chafed at him, so when the Dornishmen changed ships at Lys they had changed roles as well.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
With the Drinkwater twins.
After Ynys had come the Drinkwater twins, a pair of tawny young maidens who loved hawking, hunting, climbing rocks, and making Quentyn blush. One of them had given him his first kiss, though he never knew which one. As daughters of a landed knight, the twins were too lowborn to marry, but Cletus did not think that was any reason to stop kissing them. “After you’re wed you can take one of them for a paramour. Or both, why not?” But Quentyn thought of several reasons why not, so he had done his best to avoid the twins thereafter, and there had been no second kiss.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
And aboard the Meadowlark.
The captain of the Meadowlark led his crew in a prayer for the souls of their slain shipmates. Then he turned to his Dornish passengers, the three who still remained of the six who had come aboard at the Planky Town. Even the big man had emerged, pale and greensick and unsteady on his feet, struggling up from the depths of the ship’s hold to pay his last respects. “One of you should say some words for your dead, before we give them to the sea,” the captain said. Gerris had obliged, lying with every other word, since he dare not tell the truth of who they’d been or why they’d come.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)

Compare with the embarrassment of Davos, in a similar situation than Quentyn, when he is asked about the extent of the forces with Stannis.
Ser Marlon went on. “How many men can Stannis put into the field, can you tell us that? How many knights ride with him? How many bowmen, how many freeriders, how many men-at-arms?”
Too few, Davos knew. Stannis had come north with no more than fifteen hundred men ... but if he told them that, his mission here was doomed. He fumbled for words and found none.
(Davos IV, ADwD)

Of course, it would not be reasonable to lie to the Queen at this point, since Quentyn is trying to gain an ally, not to impress a foe. So Quentyn has not been told about the real strength of Dorne. A princess ought to know the truth, but not a prince, apparently.


4. Quentyn's companions

Quentyn's escort is composed of Cletus Yronwood, Archibald Yronwood, Willlam Wells, Gerris Drinkwater and Maester Kedry.  All except the maester are young men, devoid of much experience in anything, and not part of Doran's inner circle. And Cletus Yronwood knows from the start that Quentyn intends to propose Daenerys. The mission is of vital importance for Dorne and Doran Martell kept it hidden from Arianne, the Sand Snakes etc.

Maester Kedry is a mystery. He wasn't part of Doran's court, since Doran has already two maesters. Moreover, Arianne does not know Kedry.
Prince Doran was still pretending that her brother was with Lord Yronwood, but Garin’s mother had seen him at the Planky Town, posing as a merchant. One of his companions had a lazy eye, the same as Cletus Yronwood, Lord Anders’s randy son. A maester traveled with them too, a maester skilled in tongues.
(The Queenmaker, ADwD)

It would seem reasonable that Kedry is the maester at Yronwood. He is listed following the members of House Yronwood in the appendices. But the notion is not confirmed in the text. If Kedry was the maester at Yronwood, it means that Quentyn's mission was entirely within Lord Yronwood's hands.

(Note that the areas of expertise of Kedry – the Free cities, their languages, their cultures etc – coincide with those of the halfmaester Haldon…)

So, the experienced, well-informed voice speaking for the interest of House Martell and Dorne was... Quentyn. All these people seem hardly serious in Planky Town, as Quentyn recalls.
Later, in the Planky Town, the Dornishmen had toasted Quentyn’s future bride, made ribald japes about his wedding night to come, and talked about the things they’d see, the deeds they’d do, the glory they would win.
(The Merchant's man, ADwD)
Moreover, Quentyn and co have been spotted in the Planky Town.
My brother is not as clever as he thinks. A clever man would have left from Oldtown, even if it meant a longer voyage. In Oldtown he might have gone unrecognized. Arianne had friends amongst the orphans of the Planky Town, and some had grown curious as to why a prince and a lord’s son might be traveling under false names and seeking passage across the narrow sea. One of them had crept through a window of a night, tickled the lock on Quentyn’s little strongbox, and found the scrolls within.
(The Queenmaker, AFfC)
So the secrecy of the mission was uncovered early on, despite the precautions Doran thought necessary.
Quentyn had begun to think that they might have done better to buy their own ship in the Planky Town. That would have drawn unwanted attention, however. The Spider had informers everywhere, even in the halls of Sunspear. “Dorne will bleed if your purpose is discovered,” his father had warned him, as they watched the children frolic in the pools and fountains of the Water Gardens. “What we do is treason, make no mistake. Trust only your companions, and do your best to avoid attracting notice.”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)

Quentyn's party is odd, since it is composed entirely of men devoted to House Yronwood. No experienced man could speak for Doran. While at Ghost Hill, Arianne reflected.
Only her father and a few of his most trusted men knew about her brother's mission to Slaver's Bay. Lady Toland and her daughters were not amongst them.
(Arianne, TWoW)

Another oddity is the lack of ravens with Quentyn, despite the presence of Maester Kedry. Indeed, Doran would provide later ravens for Arianne.
"Send a raven whenever you have news," Prince Doran told her, "but report only what you know to be true. We are lost in fog here, besieged by rumors, falsehoods, and traveler's tales. I dare not act until I know for a certainty what is happening."
(Arianne, TWoW)
Contrast the prudence of Doran with the carelessness with which Quentyn has been sent to Meereen.


5. Doran's influence in the Free Cities

Doran Martell has had many relations with the Free Cities: he married a Norvoshi, he concluded a pact with the Sealord of Braavos, he fostered the daughter of the Archon of Tyrosh, he visited Volantis in his youth, Doran has spies in Lys, Oberyn founded a sellsword company across the Narrow Sea, Oberyn fathered a daughter with a highborn Volantene, Oberyn's paramour worships a Lysene goddess. Apparently, both the Sealord of Braavos and the Archon of Tyrosh were complicit in the project of marrying Arianne to Viserys.

None of this has been of any help to Quentyn in Lys, in Volantis and beyond. Quentyn had to rely on the tips of the master of the Meadowlark to find lodging in Volantis. How is it that none of these relations were put in play to help Quentyn?

Note that both the Sealord of Braavos and the Archon of Tyrosh were informed of Doran's project of Targaryen restoration.
“It is a secret pact,” Dany said, “made in Braavos when I was just a little girl. Ser Willem Darry signed for us, the man who spirited my brother and myself away from Dragonstone before the Usurper’s men could take us. Prince Oberyn Martell signed for Dorne, with the Sealord of Braavos as witness.”
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)
And Doran told Arianne.
“That green-haired girl was the Archon’s daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I . . . I could not do that to her.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

So Doran could have asked the help of several states who would have provided ships and men for the mission. The first stop of the mission was in Lys, where Doran seems to have connections as well.
“That last part, about the message. Have you had tidings?”
Prince Doran shared his secret smile with her. “From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants.”
(The Watcher, ADwD)
Moreover, Doran is familiar with Volantis.
“I saw Volantis once, on my way to Norvos, where I first met Mellario.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)
Moreover, the Martells have family connection in Volantis, via Oberyn.
...whilst Nym was born from the noblest blood of old Volantis.
(The Captain of Guards, AFfC)
The noblest blood of old Volantis refers certainly to the Old Blood.

Outlanders, foreigners, and freedmen were not allowed inside the Black Wall save at the invitation of those who dwelt within, scions of the Old Blood who could trace their ancestry back to Valyria itself.

(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
There are more indications of diplomatic ties with the Free Cities.
Ser Andrey has been sent to Norvos to serve your lady mother for three years. Garin will spend his next two years in Tyrosh.
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

Quentyn seemed to have got no information on Volantis from his father. He did read the books provided by Maester Kedry, though.

“The triarchs are neither kings nor princes. Volantis is a freehold, like Valyria of old. All freeborn landholders share the rule. Even women are allowed to vote, provided they own land. The three triarchs are chosen from amongst those noble families who can prove unbroken descent from old Valyria, to serve until the first day of the new year. And you would know all this if you had troubled to read the book that Maester Kedry gave you.”

(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)


6. Tyrion's Analysis

The calculations of Doran before the mission are not known to us. We saw that Illyrio has provided fine clothes, gifts and books about dragons for Aegon's expedition to Meereen. Tyrion himself is thought valuable in reason of his knowledge about dragons. Here is a dialogue between Aegon and Tyrion over the cyvasse board.
... assuming that our fair Daenerys takes you for her consort.”
“She will. She must.”
“Must?” Tyrion made a tsking sound. “That is not a word queens like to hear. You are her perfect prince, agreed, bright and bold and comely as any maid could wish. Daenerys Targaryen is no maid, however. She is the widow of a Dothraki khal, a mother of dragons and sacker of cities, Aegon the Conqueror with teats. She may not prove as willing as you wish.”
“She’ll be willing.” Prince Aegon sounded shocked. It was plain that he had never before considered the possibility that his bride-to-be might refuse him. “You don’t know her.” He picked up his heavy horse and put it down with a thump.
The dwarf shrugged. “I know that she spent her childhood in exile, impoverished, living on dreams and schemes, running from one city to the next, always fearful, never safe, friendless but for a brother who was by all accounts half-mad ... a brother who sold her maidenhood to the Dothraki for the promise of an army. I know that somewhere out upon the grass her dragons hatched, and so did she. I know she is proud. How not? What else was left her but pride? I know she is strong. How not? The Dothraki despise weakness. If Daenerys had been weak, she would have perished with Viserys. I know she is fierce. Astapor, Yunkai, and Meereen are proof enough of that. She has crossed the grasslands and the red waste, survived assassins and conspiracies and fell sorceries, grieved for a brother and a husband and a son, trod the cities of the slavers to dust beneath her dainty sandaled feet. Now, how do you suppose this queen will react when you turn up with your begging bowl in hand and say, ‘Good morrow to you, Auntie. I am your nephew, Aegon, returned from the dead. I’ve been hiding on a poleboat all my life, but now I’ve washed the blue dye from my hair and I’d like a dragon, please ... and oh, did I mention, my claim to the Iron Throne is stronger than your own?’ ”
Aegon’s mouth twisted in fury. “I will not come to my aunt a beggar. I will come to her a kinsman, with an army.”
“A small army.” There, that’s made him good and angry. The dwarf could not help but think of Joffrey. I have a gift for angering princes. “Queen Daenerys has a large one, and no thanks to you.”
(Tyrion VI, ADwD)

The analysis essentially applies to Quentyn. Doran, himself a cyvasse player, has gone through the same reasoning, hasn't he? So he should have perceived that Dany could refuse Quentyn, and prepared an alternate plan for Quentyn in case the dornish prince is rejected. But there is none as Quentyn recalls.
It runs in the blood. King Aerys II had been mad, all of Westeros knew that. He had exiled two of his Hands and burned a third. If Daenerys is as murdeous as her father, must I still marry her? Prince Doran had never spoken of that possibility.
(The Windblown, ADwD)

So Quentyn was left to imagine that he had to take a dragon by himself. Here is the provisional conclusion.

Of course, it is entirely possible that Doran Martell messed up in the preparation of Quentyn's mission due to own illness, Dorne's lack of resources, the necessity of urgency, unexpected circumstances and we can leave the question at that. But it doesn't make a very interesting story.

In my view, Doran is indeed the calculating, cautious prince described by Tywin Lannister, the subtle cyvasse player Arianne meets when she is freed from the tower. I would rather suspect that at one point we will have a dramatic revelation of the Prince's true intentions.

We will try now to guess what resides in Doran Martell's mind.


7. House Yronwood

House Yronwood is ancient and was once more important than it is now. We learn much about the house through Arianne, who might be biased.
The Yronwoods were an ancient house, proud and powerful. Before the coming of the Rhoynar they had been kings over half of Dorne, with domains that dwarfed those of House Martell.
(Arianne, TWoW)

The coming of the Rhoynar was a thousand years ago. But the decline of the House Yronwood is well remembered in Dorne, most of all by the Yronwoods themselves. Indeed the Yronwoods have kept track of their royal origin in the title the Bloodroyal. More importantly, the decline of House Yronwood seems to have been inversely proportional to the rise of House Martell, now dominant over Dorne.

Over the last century, several Blackfyre rebellions have troubled the realm. Arianne told Arys Oakheart.
Lord Yronwood knows that as well as I do. His forebears rode with Bittersteel during three of the Blackfyre Rebellions.
(The Soiled Knight, AFfC)

Riding three times with Bittersteel seems like a consistent support for the Blackfyre cause. The initial Blackfyre rebellion was fought in part because of the Dornish (specifically Martell) influence at court.
“You can know a man by his friends, Egg. Daeron surrounded himself with maesters, septons, and singers. Always there were women whispering in his ear, and his court was full of Dornishmen. How not, when he had taken a Dornishwoman into his bed, and sold his own sweet sister to the prince of Dorne, though it was Daemon that she loved? Daeron bore the same name as the Young Dragon, but when his Dornish wife gave him a son he named the child Baelor, after the feeblest king who ever sat the Iron Throne.
“Daemon, though . . . Daemon was no more pious than a king need be, and all the great knights of the realm gathered to him. It would suit Lord Bloodraven if their names were all forgotten, so he has forbidden us to sing of them, but I remember. Robb Reyne, Gareth the Grey, Ser Aubrey Ambrose, Lord Gormon Peake, Black Byren Flowers, Redtusk, Fireball . . .Bittersteel! I ask you, has there ever been such a noble company, such a roll of heroes?
(The Sworn Sword)

Naturally, the Martells were Targaryen loyalists. So over the last century, the Yronwoods and the Martells were on opposite sides in the major conflicts of Westeros. That brings us to Oberyn Martell's youth.
Quentyn had been fostered by Lord Anders of House Yronwood, the Bloodroyal, the son of Lord Ormond Yronwood and grandson of Lord Edgar.  In his youth her uncle Oberyn had fought a duel with Edgar, had given him a wound that mortified and killed him.  Afterward men called him 'the Red Viper,' and spoke of poison on his blade.  The Yronwoods were an ancient house, proud and powerful.  Before the coming of the Rhoynar they had been kings over half of Dorne, with domains that dwarfed those of House Martell.  Blood feud and rebellion would surely have followed Lord Edgar's death, had not her father acted at once.  The Red Viper went to Oldtown, thence across to the narrow sea to Lys, though none dared call it exile.  And in due time, Quentyn was given to Lord Anders to foster as a sign of trust.  That helped to heal the breach between Sunspear and the Yronwoods, but it had opened new ones between Quentyn and the Sand Snakes... and Arianne had always been closer to her cousins than to her distant brother.
(Arianne, TWoW)
The story is known to Tyrion.
When he was no more than sixteen, Prince Oberyn had been found abed with the paramour of old Lord Yronwood, a huge man of fierce repute and short temper. A duel ensued, though in view of the prince’s youth and high birth, it was only to first blood. Both men took cuts, and honor was satisfied. Yet Prince Oberyn soon recovered, while Lord Yronwood’s wounds festered and killed him. Afterward men whispered that Oberyn had fought with a poisoned sword, and ever thereafter friends and foes alike called him the Red Viper.
(Tyrion V, ASoS)
The duel seems to have happened about twenty six years ago, before Arianne's birth.

The relationship between House Martell and House Yronwood is structurally antagonistic. It recalls what Jaime told Brienne.
“Every great lord has unruly bannermen who envy him his place,” he told her afterward. “My father had the Reynes and Tarbecks, the Tyrells have the Florents, Hoster Tully had Walder Frey. Only strength keeps such men in their place. The moment they smell weakness... during the Age of Heroes, the Boltons used to flay the Starks and wear their skins as cloaks.”
(Jaime VII, ASoS)
House Yronwood is invested with special military responsibility in Dorne.
The most powerful of the Dornish lords was Anders Yronwood, the Bloodroyal, Lord of Yronwood and Warden of the Stone Way, but Arianne knew better than to look for help from the man who had fostered her brother Quentyn.
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

So the Yronwoods are entrusted to guard one of the two entrances by land to Dorne. The other entrance is under the watch of House Fowler.
The Old Hawk, he was called. He had never gotten on with Anders Yronwood; there was bad blood between their Houses going back a thousand years, from when the Fowlers had chosen Martell over Yronwood during Nymeria’s War.
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

House Yronwood seems to be of Andal stock, while the Martells come from a mix of Rhoynar and the previous inhabitants of Dorne (who might have been Andals as well). This seems reflected in their physical appearance, with at least one exception.
More recently, the youngest of Lord Yronwood’s daughters had taken to following him about the castle. Gwyneth was but twelve, a small, scrawny girl whose dark eyes and brown hair set her apart in that house of blue-eyed blondes.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
It seems to be the common distinction between the stony Dornishmen and the salty Dornishmen.

We know remarkably little about Doran Martell's opinion on House Yronwood. We saw already that Doran sent Quentyn to Yronwood to remedy the problem caused by the death of Lord Yronwood. Doran went much further than that.
“I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my father’s solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later. He’d left a candle burning. When I went to blow it out, I found a letter lying incomplete beside it, a letter to my brother Quentyn, off at Yronwood. My father told Quentyn that he must do all that his maester and his master-at-arms required of him, because ‘one day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne, and a ruler must be strong of mind and body.’”
(The soiled Knight, AFfC)
“This mistrust does you no honor, Arianne. Quentyn should be the one conspiring against me. I sent him away when he was just a child, too young to understand the needs of Dorne. Anders Yronwood has been more a father to him than I have, yet your brother remains faithful and obedient.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

Arianne has seen a letter sent to Quentyn affirming his desire to make him his heir.
“Do you deny you wrote those words?”
“No. That was when Quentyn first went to Yronwood. I did intend for him to follow me, yes. I had other plans for you.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

It would be a considerable gift to House Yronwood to have Quentyn inherit Dorne. Indeed, Quentyn called Lord Yronwood his second father, and called Cletus his best friend. Just before he died he recalled fondly his years of fostering at Yronwood (among other things).
I want to go back to Yronwood and kiss both of your sisters, marry Gwyneth Yronwood, watch her flower into beauty, have a child by her.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
Quentyn even declined knighthood from his famous uncle.
Ser Arys had yet to meet Quentyn Martell. The prince had been fostered by Lord Yronwood from a tender age, had served him as a page, then a squire, had even taken knighthood at his hands in preference to the Red Viper’s.
(The Soiled Knight, AFfC)

Doran has done surprisingly little to raise his eldest son. Naming Quentyn heir is contrary to dornish law, which attributes inheritance to the eldest child. Since Dornish law seems to come from the Rhoynar, the Yronwood might have been delighted by the inobservance of the law. (There is no sign that the Yronwoods do not observe dornish law. Here again, they might regret the old days.)

Finally, it might be worthwile to note that the Yronwoods let pass the opportunity to have their daughter married to Quentyn.
When first he’d come to Yronwood, he had been smitten with Ynys, the eldest of Lord Yronwood’s daughters. Though he never said a word about his feelings, he nursed his dreams for years ... until the day she was dispatched to wed Ser Ryon Allyrion, the heir to Godsgrace. The last time he had seen her, she’d had one boy at her breast and another clinging to her skirts.
(The Merchant's man, ADwD)


8. The Dragon Queen

The mission assigned to Quentyn is not as clear as it seems. It seems there are two sponsors for the mission: Lord Yronwood and Doran Martell. All five men with Quentyn seem to have been chosen by Lord Yronwood. For them, the whole enterprise is about a marriage alliance between Dorne and the Targaryens. Indeed, here is Cletus Yronwood in the Planky Town.
Later, in the Planky Town, the Dornishmen had toasted Quentyn’s future bride, made ribald japes about his wedding night to come, and talked about the things they’d see, the deeds they’d do, the glory they would win.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Here is Cletus' dying breath.
“Give your bride a kiss for me,” Cletus had whispered to him, just before he died.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Quentyn recalls again Cletus.
“All dead,” Quentyn agreed. “For what? To bring me here, so I might wed the dragon queen. A grand adventure, Cletus called it. Demon roads and stormy seas, and at the end of it the most beautiful woman in the world. A tale to tell our grandchildren. But Cletus will never father a child, unless he left a bastard in the belly of that tavern wench he liked. Will will never have his wedding. Their deaths should have some meaning.”
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
The Yronwoods never made any mention of dragons. Quentyn didn't either, until...
“My marriage need not be the end of all your hopes. I know why you are here.”
“For you,” said Quentyn, all awkward gallantry. “No,” said Dany. “For fire and blood.”
(Daenerys VIII, ADwD)
When Quentyn mentioned dragons, Gerris tried to dissuade his prince.
They do not see. His friends had lost sight of his true purpose here. The road leads through her, not to her. Daenerys is the means to the prize, not the prize itself. “ ‘The dragon has three heads,’ she said to me. ‘My marriage need not be the end of all your hopes,’ she said. ‘I know why you are here. For fire and blood.’ I have Targaryen blood in me, you know that. I can trace my lineage back—”
“Fuck your lineage,” said Gerris. “The dragons won’t care about your blood, except maybe how it tastes. You cannot tame a dragon with a history lesson. They’re monsters, not maesters. Quent, is this truly what you want to do?”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
When they faced the dragons, Gerris tried again.
“Quent, this will not work. They are too wild, they ...”
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)

Apparently, the idea of taming dragons is entirely Quentyn's. However, it seems to have been in Doran's mind somehow.
Prince Doran shared his secret smile with her. “From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants.”
“No dragons?”
“Elephants. Easy enough to hide a young dragon in a big cog’s hold, though. Daenerys is most vulnerable at sea. If I were her, I would keep myself and my intentions hidden as long as I could, so I might take King’s Landing unawares.”
(The Watcher, ADwD)


9. Ser Gerris and the Windblown

Here are the key moments of Quentyn's journey.
  • Quentyn leaves the Planky Town posing as a merchant with his five companions.
  • They change ships in Lys and they embark for Volantis on the Meadowlark.
  • On the coast of the disputed lands, a corsair attack kills Cletus, Maester Kedry and Willam Wells.
  • Arch, Gerris and Quentyn reach Volantis.
  • They take residence at the Merchant's House on the advice of the master of the Meadowlark.
  • Quentyn and Gerris look unsuccessfully for a ship during a month.
  • Gerris suggests joining the Windblown who are recruiting at the Merchant's House.
  • The Windblown bring them to Astapor, where the company fights the Butcher King in behalf of the Wise Masters of Yunkai.
  • As the company moves to Meereen, the Tattered Prince orders the westerosis members of the Company to feign desertion and join Daenerys.
  • The false deserters surrender to Daario Naharis.
  • Once in the presence of Daenerys, Quentyn reveals himself to the Queen and his marriage proposal is declined.
  • He commands Gerris to recontact the Windblown.
  • Quentyn decides then to try to steal a dragon, despite the advice of Gerris, who wants to go home.
  • The Windblown accept to help to kidnap a dragon.
  • Quentyn is burned to death in the pyramid of Meereen.
We are going to reexamine the whole sequence of events. At first, the expedition is actually led by Cletus Yronwood.
Gerris greeted him with a smile. Though he did not speak the Volantene tongue as well as Quentyn, their ruse required that he speak for them. Back in the Planky Town Quentyn had played the wineseller, but the mummery had chafed at him, so when the Dornishmen changed ships at Lys they had changed roles as well. Aboard the Meadowlark, Cletus Yronwood became the merchant, Quentyn the servant; in Volantis, with Cletus slain, Gerris had assumed the master’s role.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)

After Cletus' death, Gerris took over. At the arrival at Volantis, Quentyn and co relied on the master of the Meadowlark for lodging tips.
Though the inn had come well recommended by the master of the Meadowlark, that did not mean Quentyn was willing to leave their goods and gold unguarded.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)

In Volantis, Gerris is in charge of negociating the passage towards Slaver's Bay. He failed day after day. He was not alone to be unlucky since the men of the Golden Company had trouble finding ships for Meereen at the same time.
“Can we walk across the waves, ser?” asked Lysono Maar. “I tell you again, we cannot reach the silver queen by sea. I slipped into Volantis myself, posing as a trader, to learn how many ships might be available to us. The harbor teems with galleys, cogs, and carracks of every sort and size, yet even so I soon found myself consorting with smugglers and pirates. We have ten thousand men in the company, as I am sure Lord Connington remembers from his years of service with us. Five hundred knights, each with three horses. Five hundred squires, with one mount apiece. And elephants, we must not forget the elephants. A pirate ship will not suffice. We would need a pirate fleet ... and even if we found one, the word has come back from Slaver’s Bay that Meereen has been closed off by blockade.”
(The Lost Lord, ADwD)
But the Windblown didn't have such a problem. The idea to reach Slaver's Bay is due to Gerris.
Gerris laughed. “You must be more desperate for Daenerys than I knew if you’d endure that stench for months on end. After three days, I’d be begging them to murder me. No, my prince, I pray you, not Adventure.”
“Do you have a better way?” Quentyn asked him. “I do. It’s just now come to me. It has its risks, and it is not what you would call honorable, I grant you ... but it will get you to your queen quicker than the demon road.”
“Tell me,” said Quentyn Martell.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)

After Quentyn had joined the Windblown, he was bound to follow the Company or desert. But he has been given a false identity which put him under Archibald's authority. He stayed close to Archibald during the fighting in Astapor, at Gerris' insistence again.
“I am not a squire,” Quentyn had protested when Gerris Drinkwater—known here as Dornish Gerrold, to distinguish him from Gerrold Redback and Black Gerrold, and sometimes as Drink, since the big man had slipped and called him that—suggested the ruse. “I earned my spurs in Dorne. I am as much a knight as you are.”
But Gerris had the right of it; he and Arch were here to protect Quentyn, and that meant keeping him by the big man’s side. “Arch is the best fighter of the three of us,” Drinkwater had pointed out, “but only you can hope to wed the dragon queen.”
(The Windblown, ADwD)

After the battle at Astapor, Quentyn thought of deserting. Gerris discouraged Quentyn's initiative to desert.
“We can’t know that, not for certain. We need to steal away before we end up fighting the woman I was sent to woo.”
“Wait till Yunkai.” Gerris gestured at the hills. “These lands belong to the Yunkai’i. No one is like to want to feed or shelter three deserters. North of Yunkai, that’s no-man’s-land.”
He was not wrong. Even so, Quentyn felt uneasy. “The big man’s made too many friends. He knows the plan was always to steal off and make our way to Daenerys, but he’s not going to feel good about abandoning men he’s fought with. If we wait too long, it’s going to feel as if we’re deserting them on the eve of battle. He will never do that. You know him as well as I do.”
“It’s desertion whenever we do it,” argued Gerris, “and the Tattered Prince takes a dim view of deserters. He’ll send hunters after us, and Seven save us if they catch us. If we’re lucky, they’ll just chop off a foot to make sure we never run again. If we’re unlucky, they’ll give us to Pretty Meris.”
That last gave Quentyn pause. Pretty Meris frightened him. A Westerosi woman, but taller than he was, just a thumb under six feet. After twenty years amongst the free companies, there was nothing pretty about her, inside or out.
Gerris took him by the arm. “Wait. A few more days, that’s all. We have crossed half the world, be patient for a few more leagues. Somewhere north of Yunkai our chance will come.”
(The Windblown, ADwD)
Then a miracle happened. The Tattered Prince sent his Westerosi men to Daenerys' side.
“A fair question. You’re to ride east, deep into the hills, then swing wide about Yunkai, making for Meereen. Should you come on any Astapori, drive them north or kill them ... but know that is not the purpose of your mission. Beyond the Yellow City, you’re like to come up against the dragon queen’s patrols. Second Sons or Stormcrows. Either will serve. Go over to them.”
“Go over to them?” said the bastard knight, Ser Orson Stone. “You’d have us turn our cloaks?”
“I would,” said the Tattered Prince.
Quentyn Martell almost laughed aloud. The gods are mad.
The Westerosi shifted uneasily. Some stared into their wine cups, as if they hoped to find some wisdom there. Hugh Hungerford frowned. “You think Queen Daenerys will take us in ...”
“I do.”
“... but if she does, what then? Are we spies? Assassins? Envoys? Are you thinking to change sides?”
(The Windblown, ADwD)
The rest of the story is told by Daario.
As he told his tale, from time to time a drop of bright red blood would patter against the marble floor, and Dany would wince. “How many men were killed?” she asked when he was done.
“Of ours? I did not stop to count. We gained more than we lost, though.”
“More turncloaks?”
“More brave men drawn to your noble cause. My queen will like them. One is an axeman from the Basilisk Isles, a brute, bigger than Belwas. You should see him. Some Westerosi too, a score or more. Deserters from the Windblown, unhappy with the Yunkai’i. They’ll make good Stormcrows.”
(Daenerys VI, ADwD)
And later.
“This after that you speak of never comes. You should hold court. My new men do not believe that you are real. The ones who came over from the Windblown. Bred and born in Westeros, most of them, full of tales about Targaryens. They want to see one with their own eyes. The Frog has a gift for you.”
“The Frog?” she said, giggling. “And who is he?”
He shrugged. “Some Dornish boy. He squires for the big knight they call Greenguts. I told him he could give his gift to me and I’d deliver it, but he wouldn’t have it.”
“Oh, a clever frog. ‘Give the gift to me.’ ” She threw the other pillow at him. “Would I have ever seen it?”
Daario stroked his gilded mustachio. “Would I steal from my sweet queen? If it were a gift worthy of you, I would have put it into your soft hands myself.”
“As a token of your love?”
“As to that I will not say, but I told him that he could give it to you. You would not make a liar of Daario Naharis?” Dany was helpless to refuse. “As you wish. Bring your frog to court tomorrow. The others too. The Westerosi.” It would be nice to hear the Common Tongue from someone besides Ser Barristan.
“As my queen commands.” Daario bowed deeply, grinned, and took his leave, his cloak swirling behind him.
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)

Daario seemed to have been fooled by the ploy, and became furious when Quentyn revealed himself at Daenerys' court.
Dany giggled. “I think that I can guess, ser. It is ser, is it not? Daario tells me that you are a knight.”
“If it please Your Grace, we are all three knights.”
Dany glanced at Daario and saw anger flash across his face.
He did not know. “I have need of knights,” she said.
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)
And later.
When Prince Quentyn told them that the other Westerosi had come over to the Stormcrows at the command of the Tattered Prince, only the intercession of Grey Worm and his Unsullied prevented Daario from killing them all. The false deserters had been imprisoned safely in the bowels of the pyramid ... but Daario’s rage continued to fester.
(Daenerys VIII, ADwD)

From what we see, it is not inconceivable that Daenerys would have accepted the proposal, except that she was promised to Hizdahr. In short, Quentyn has arrived too late.

Another character has contributed to Quentyn's rejection and spoke consistently against Dorne in Daenerys' ear.
“I know of this Dorne,” said Reznak mo Reznak. “Dorne is sand and scorpions, and bleak red mountains baking in the sun.”
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)
During the inquiry over the assassination attempt.
King Hizdahr backed away a step. “The locusts? That ... that was the Dornishman. Quentyn, the so-called prince. Ask Reznak if you doubt me.”
“Have you proof of that? Has Reznak?”
“No, else I would have had them seized. Perhaps I should do so in any case. Marghaz will wring a confession out of them, I do not doubt. They’re all poisoners, these Dornish. Reznak says they worship snakes.”
(The Kingbreaker, ADwD)

So Reznak mo Reznak speaks the common tongue and seems to have visited Dorne. We have no more indication that he played a role in Daenerys' decison to decline the wedding proposal. In any case, had Daenerys considered Quentyn seriously, he could have weighted in to dissuade the Queen.

At this point, Daenerys refused Quentyn, but not without showing him her dragons. Quentyn seems to have conceived the idea of stealing the dragons at this point. First, he sent Gerris to find the Windblown, a task Gerris accomplished with surprising ease.
The hour of ghosts was almost upon them when Ser Gerris Drinkwater returned to the pyramid to report that he had found Beans, Books, and Old Bill Bone in one of Meereen’s less savory cellars, drinking yellow wine and watching naked slaves kill one another with bare hands and filed teeth.
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
But Quentyn revealed later his plan to his companions.
They do not see. His friends had lost sight of his true purpose here. The road leads through her, not to her. Daenerys is the means to the prize, not the prize itself. “ ‘The dragon has three heads,’ she said to me. ‘My marriage need not be the end of all your hopes,’ she said. ‘I know why you are here. For fire and blood.’ I have Targaryen blood in me, you know that. I can trace my lineage back—”
“Fuck your lineage,” said Gerris. “The dragons won’t care about your blood, except maybe how it tastes. You cannot tame a dragon with a history lesson. They’re monsters, not maesters. Quent, is this truly what you want to do?”
“This is what I have to do. For Dorne. For my father. For Cletus and Will and Maester Kedry.”
“They’re dead,” said Gerris. “They won’t care.”
“All dead,” Quentyn agreed. “For what? To bring me here, so I might wed the dragon queen. A grand adventure, Cletus called it. Demon roads and stormy seas, and at the end of it the most beautiful woman in the world. A tale to tell our grandchildren. But Cletus will never father a child, unless he left a bastard in the belly of that tavern wench he liked. Will will never have his wedding. Their deaths should have some meaning.”
Gerris pointed to where a corpse slumped against a brick wall, attended by a cloud of glistening green flies. “Did his death have meaning?”
Quentyn looked at the body with distaste. “He died of the flux. Stay well away from him.” The pale mare was inside the city walls. Small wonder that the streets seemed so empty. “The Unsullied will send a corpse cart for him.”
“No doubt. But that was not my question. Men’s lives have meaning, not their deaths. I loved Will and Cletus too, but this will not bring them back to us. This is a mistake, Quent. You cannot trust in sellswords.”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
As we noted already, Gerris tried to discourage Quentyn.

After Quentyn's death, Gerris put all the blame on Daenerys for Quentyn's death.
Ser Archibald, the big bald one, had nothing to say. He sat on the edge of his pallet, staring down at his bandaged hands in their linen wrappings. Ser Gerris punched a wall. “I told him it was folly. I begged him to go home. Your bitch of a queen had no use for him, any man could see that. He crossed the world to offer her his love and fealty, and she laughed in his face.”
“She never laughed,” said Selmy. “If you knew her, you would know that.”
“She spurned him. He offered her his heart, and she threw it back at him and went off to fuck her sellsword.”
“You had best guard that tongue, ser.” Ser Barristan did not like this Gerris Drinkwater, nor would he allow him to vilify Daenerys. “Prince Quentyn’s death was his own doing, and yours.”
“Ours? How are we at fault, ser? Quentyn was our friend, yes. A bit of a fool, you might say, but all dreamers are fools. But first and last he was our prince. We owed him our obedience.”
Barristan Selmy could not dispute the truth of that. He had spent the best part of his own life obeying the commands of drunkards and madmen. “He came too late.”
(The Queen's Hand, ADwD)

Gerris's report is of course exaggerated, and Barristan's account is the reasonable one. But the exchange tells us what Gerris was prepared to tell Doran Martell upon his return to Dorne.

Barristan Selmy had his suspicions about Gerris. And seems to realize that his presence was detrimental to Quentyn.
Behind the prince, Ser Gerris Drinkwater was whispering something to Yronwood. Ser Gerris was all his prince was not: tall and lean and comely, with a swordsman’s grace and a courtier’s wit. Selmy did not doubt that many a Dornish maiden had run her fingers through that sun-streaked hair and kissed that teasing smile off his lips. If this one had been the prince, things might have gone elsewise, he could not help but think ... but there was something a bit too pleasant about Drinkwater for his taste. False coin, the old knight thought. He had known such men before.
(The Discarded Knight, ADwD)

It seems Ser Gerris and the Windblown were directing Quentyn's journey until the prince met Daenerys. They brought Quentyn to Daenerys without too much trouble after all (except an unfortunate episode we will discuss later). In front of the Queen, Gerris did whatever he could do to ensure the failure of Quentyn.


10. The other Targaryen Cause

All this finds, after all, a simple explanation. If the Yronwoods support once more the Blackfyre cause, and if Aegon is a Blackfyre, they might have calculated that Quentyn's proposal and rejection by Daenerys is the best option for Aegon. Indeed, after the rejection of Quentyn, Doran Martell has all reason to join Aegon's cause.

A few disparate hints that the Yronwoods might support the Blackfyre cause.

There is an intermediary character for the meeting of Quentyn and the Windblown.
Then a door he had not seen before swung open, and an old woman emerged, a shriveled thing in a dark red tokar fringed with tiny golden skulls. Her skin was white as mare’s milk, her hair so thin that he could see the scalp beneath. “Dorne,” she said, “I be Zahrina. Purple Lotus. Go down here, you find them.”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)

Zahrina is at least well trusted by the Windblown. Most interesting are the tiny golden skulls of the tokar. They remind me unmistakingly of other golden skulls.
The sun was reddening the western sky and painting scarlet shadows on the golden skulls atop their spears when they took their leave of the captain-general’s tent.
(The Lost Lord, ADwD)
The skulls occur as well on the Golden Company's men.
Marq Mandrake, whose pox-scarred face had a hole in one cheek where a slave’s mark had been burned away, wore a chain of golden skulls as well.
(The Lost Lord, ADwD)
They are also on the company's banners.
Even before they had sailed from Volon Therys, he had instructed his captains to show no banners during these first attacks—not Prince Aegon’s three-headed dragon, nor his own griffins, nor the skulls and golden battle standards of the company.
(The Griffin Reborn, ADwD)
Let's turn to the Golden Company in Westeros.
The Halfmaester glanced at another parchment. “We could scarcely have timed our landing better. We have potential friends and allies at every hand.”
(The Griffin reborn, ADwD)
at every hand... As it happens, Yronwood is not far from Griffin's Roost.

The family name of Gerris evokes a hero of the Blackfyre cause (it can be a coincidence).
"That was chivalrous of him," Dunk had to admit. "Did Ser Quentyn die upon the Redgrass Field?"
"Before, ser," Egg replied. "An archer put an arrow through his throat as he dismounted by a stream to have a drink. Just some common man, no one knows who."
(The Mystery Knight)

The Drinkwaters are landed knights. But we don't know how long ago they have been established. Rolly Duckfield provided a vivid example of the freedom of choice for knights to choose their (however significant) names.

A little oddity: Maester Kedry did not bring any raven with him, apparently. It's not in reason of the long distances, since Victarion has brought a maester and ravens across the Narrow Sea.
Euron had taken Kerwin off Greenshield, where he had been in service to Lord Chester, tending his ravens and teaching his children, or perhaps the other away around. And how the mouse had squealed when one of Euron’s mutes delivered him aboard the Iron Victory, dragging him along by the convenient chain about his neck. “If this is his revenge, he wrongs me. It was Euron who insisted he be taken, to keep him from making mischief with his birds.” His brother had given him three cages of ravens too, so Kerwin could send back word of their voyaging, but Victarion had forbidden him to loose them. Let the Crow’s Eye stew and wonder.
(The Iron Suitor, ADwD)

The absence of raven with Kedry can find a justification if indeed the Yronwoods work for the Blackfyre cause. Bloodraven was once Daemon Blackfyre's archenemy, and he seems to have defeated all subsequent Blackfyre rebellions, possibly because he could spy everywhere through the ravens: a thousand eyes and one. We don't know whether the Blackfyre supporters (Varys, Illyrio, the Golden Company) are still aware of Bloodraven's existence somewhere. If they are, it's possible that they mistrust ravens and deliberately avoid using them.

The Yronwoods did not want Quentyn to die, just to fail. After all Quentyn is part of their family. I don't think they fostered a son who became a friend of the heir, and considered Lord Yronwood as a second father, to murder him in cold blood. I suppose they did not foresee that Quentyn would try to steal a dragon. It is the Yronwoods' interest to have Quentyn alive and influential in Dorne.

Indeed, Doran Martell has written to Quentyn in Yronwood that Quentyn would be made his heir.
Her eyes were bold and black as sin, unflinching. “I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my father’s solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later. He’d left a candle burning. When I went to blow it out, I found a letter lying incomplete beside it, a letter to my brother Quentyn, off at Yronwood. My father told Quentyn that he must do all that his maester and his master-at-arms required of him, because ‘one day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne, and a ruler must be strong of mind and body.’” A tear crept down Arianne’s soft cheek. “My father’s words, written in his own hand. They burned themselves into my memory. I cried myself to sleep that night, and many nights thereafter.”
(The Soiled Knight, AFfC)

If Arianne was fourteen then, Quentyn must have been around eight years old. The notion that Quentyn would rule Dorne one day did not escape the Yronwoods, in all likelhood. It's all the more curious that they did not try to marry their daughter Ynys to Quentyn.

Here is Doran's explanation.
“No. That was when Quentyn first went to Yronwood. I did intend for him to follow me, yes. I had other plans for you.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

It would seem that the letter was written just when Quentyn was sent to Yronwood. If the Yronwoods knew that Doran intended Quentyn to rule Dorne, I wonder what Doran told them to explain the move.

A key event, that we are going to examine now, seems to have been beyond Gerris' control.


11. Corsairs or Mummers?

Here is the account of the attack on the Meadowlark.
Quentyn lost two other friends that same day—Willam Wells with his freckles and his crooked teeth, fearless with a lance, and Cletus Yronwood, handsome despite his lazy eye, always randy, always laughing. Cletus had been Quentyn’s dearest friend for half his life, a brother in all but blood. “Give your bride a kiss for me,” Cletus had whispered to him, just before he died.

The corsairs had come aboard in the darkness before the dawn, as the
Meadowlark was anchored off the coast of the Disputed Lands. The crew had beaten them off, at the cost of twelve lives. Afterward the sailors stripped the dead corsairs of boots and belts and weapons, divvied up their purses, and yanked gemstones from their ears and rings from their fingers. One of the corpses was so fat that the ship’s cook had to cut his fingers off with a meat cleaver to claim his rings. It took three Meadowlarks to roll the body into the sea. The other pirates were chucked in after him, without a word of prayer or ceremony.

Their own dead received more tender treatment. The sailors sewed their bodies up in canvas, weighed down with ballast stones so they might sink more quickly. The captain of the
Meadowlark led his crew in a prayer for the souls of their slain shipmates. Then he turned to his Dornish passengers, the three who still remained of the six who had come aboard at the Planky Town. Even the big man had emerged, pale and greensick and unsteady on his feet, struggling up from the depths of the ship’s hold to pay his last respects. “One of you should say some words for your dead, before we give them to the sea,” the captain said. Gerris had obliged, lying with every other word, since he dare not tell the truth of who they’d been or why they’d come.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
 Several things ring false, or at least quite unlucky, in this episode.
  • The melodramatic tone of Cletus as he died.
  • Maester Kedry perished as he was probably spending the night around Ser Archibald at the bottom of the ship.
  • The corsairs seemed particularly incompetent: they have been routed after having taken the ship by surprise.
  • The corsairs seem to have come from the land, not from a ship of their own, which means that the ship had to anchor at this particular spot to be attacked.
  • The big corsair is so fat that one can hardly believe he has participated in a sneaky attack.
  • And why attack with jewelry and all? The jewelry worn by the corsairs of the wealth that the men of the Golden company carry with them at all times.
The fat corsair reminds me of Illyrio (of course he isn't Illyrio). Compare with Illyrio's description by Tyrion.
Jewels danced when he moved his hands; onyx and opal, tiger’s eye and tourmaline, ruby, amethyst, sapphire, emerald, jet and jade, a black diamond, and a green pearl. I could live for years on his rings, Tyrion mused, though I’d need a cleaver to claim them.
(Tyrion I, ADwD)

At the time of the attack, the Golden Company was in the vicinity, in the Disputed Lands. There might be some connection between the Company and a troup of mummers. A company of mummers has a boat nearby when Connington left the Shy Maid to meet the Golden Company, farther south on the Rhoyne.
The Shy Maid was tied up in one of the meaner sections of the long, chaotic riverfront, between a listing poleboat that had not left the pier in years and the gaily painted mummers’ barge. The mummers were a loud and lively lot, always quoting speeches at each other and drunk more oft than not.
(The Lost Lord, ADwD)
Of course Varys was once a mummer.

The Golden Company was then in the Disputed Lands, more or less at the time of the breaking of the contract with Myr, before marching East to Volantis.

Why would a fake attack be arranged? To dispatch Cletus, Kedry and co to the Golden Company? In that case, the organizers did not expect Cletus and co to meet Quentyn again. If the attack was staged, the move does not seem compatible with the notion that Quentyn was expected to come back safely from the trip to Meereen.


12. Ser Archibald

A few words on Ser Archibald Yronwood. He is an Yronwood cousin, still close to the main branch. Quentyn never described him as a close friend. He was, apparently, well integrated in House Yronwood. His pronouncements and tales are odd sometimes. For instance this one.
“Herons are craven,” the big man put in. “One time me and Drink and Cletus were hunting, and we came on these herons wading in the shallows, feasting on tadpoles and small fish. They made a pretty sight, aye, but then a hawk passed overhead, and they all took to the wing like they’d seen a dragon. Kicked up so much wind it blew me off my horse, but Cletus nocked an arrow to his string and brought one down. Tasted like duck, but not so greasy.”
(The Windblown, ADwD)
Here is another one.
The big man looked out toward the terrace. “I knew it would rain,” he said in a gloomy tone. “My bones were aching last night. They always ache before it rains. The dragons won’t like this. Fire and water don’t mix, and that’s a fact. You get a good cookfire lit, blazing away nice, then it starts to piss down rain and next thing your wood is sodden and your flames are dead.”
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)

It points to an aversion to water, which is manifest in the extreme case of seasickness suffered by Archibald.
“You know why he says that,” Quentyn said. “He’d rather die than set foot on another ship.” The big man had been greensick every day of their voyage. In Lys, it had taken him four days to recover his strength. They’d had to take rooms in an inn so Maester Kedry could tuck him into a feather bed and feed him broths and potions until some pink returned to his cheeks.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
The seasickness of Archibald is to be found in another dornish character with Arianne.
The gods were good to them, the sea calm. Even with good winds, the crossing took a day and a night. Jayne Ladybright grew greensick and spent most of the voyage spewing, which Elia Sand seemed to find hilarious.
(Arianne, TWoW)
So Archibald was predictably seasick, and unable to fight, when the corsairs attacked the Meadowlark.

That brings us to the point that there is no sign that Archibald manipulated Quentyn or was aware of Gerris' activities. Here he is in Volantis, having been given the task of guarding Quentyn's possessions.
The big man was waiting in their rooms on the second floor. Though the inn had come well recommended by the master of the Meadowlark, that did not mean Quentyn was willing to leave their goods and gold unguarded. Every port had thieves, rats, and whores, and Volantis had more than most.
“I was about to go out looking for you,” Ser Archibald Yronwood said as he slid the bar back to admit them. It was his cousin Cletus who had started calling him the big man, but the name was well deserved. Arch was six-and-a-half-feet tall, broad of shoulder, huge of belly, with legs like tree trunks, hands the size of hams, and no neck to speak of. Some childhood malady had made all his hair fall out. His bald head reminded Quentyn of a smooth pink boulder. “So,” he demanded, “what did the smuggler say? Do we have a boat?”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
In Astapor, he played dice, fought fiercely and protected his "squire" Frog.
The sellswords loved Greenguts, who bet as fearlessly as he fought, but with far less success. “I’ll want my armor, Frog. Did you scrub that blood off my mail?”
(The Windblown, ADwD)

After Quentyn got rejected by Daenerys, Archibald did not try to oppose Quentyn's projects. Even when Gerris urged Quentyn to go home, Archibald did not follow.
“He’ll do that much. I’ll wager you get your meeting too, if only so Rags can have Pretty Meris cut your liver out and fry it up with onions. We should be heeding Selmy. When Barristan the Bold tells you to run, a wise man laces up his boots. We should find a ship for Volantis whilst the port is still open.”
Just the mention turned Ser Archibald’s cheeks green. “No more ships. I’d sooner hop back to Volantis on one foot.”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
Ser Archibald was fearless facing the dragon's vault.
Archibald Yronwood grasped the iron doors and pulled them apart. Their rusted hinges let out a pair of screams, for all those who might have slept through the breaking of the lock. A wash of sudden heat assaulted them, heavy with the odors of ash, brimstone, and burnt meat.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
When Quentyn is burned, Archibald seems more devoted to Quentyn than Gerris was.
Archibald Yronwood had been cradling his prince’s scorched and smoking body when the Brazen Beasts had found him, as his burned hands could testify. He had used them to beat out the flames that had engulfed Quentyn Martell. Gerris Drinkwater was standing over them with sword in hand, but he had dropped the blade the moment the locusts had appeared.
(The Queen's Hand, ADwD)

Barristan later found Archibald and Gerris as prisoners and formed a better opinion of Archibald than of Gerris.
“We were protecting Quentyn,” said Drinkwater. “We—”
“Be quiet, Drink. He knows.” To Ser Barristan the big knight said, “No need to come and talk if you meant to hang us. So it’s not that, is it?”
“No.”
This one may not be as slow-witted as he seems.
(The Queen's Hand, ADwD)
After Gerris' little comedy, Archibald seems annoyed.
“What he did he did for love of Queen Daenerys,” Gerris Drinkwater insisted. “To prove himself worthy of her hand.”
The old knight had heard enough. “What Prince Quentyn did he did for Dorne. Do you take me for some doting grandfather? I have spent my life around kings and queens and princes. Sunspear means to take up arms against the Iron Throne. No, do not trouble to deny it. Doran Martell is not a man to call his spears without hope of victory. Duty brought Prince Quentyn here. Duty, honor, thirst for glory ... never love. Quentyn was here for dragons, not Daenerys.”
“You did not know him, ser. He—”
“He’s dead, Drink.” Yronwood rose to his feet. “Words won’t fetch him back. Cletus and Will are dead too. So shut your bloody mouth before I stick my fist in it.” The big knight turned to Selmy. “What do you mean to do with us?”
(The Queen's Hand, ADwD)

So shut your bloody mouth before I stick my fist in it. Did Archibald finally perceive Gerris' falseness?

In any case, Archibald took no part in the manipulation of Quentyn.



13. Quentyn?

So far, we reached the conclusion that the Yronwoods did not want Quentyn to succeed in his quest to win the hand of Daenerys. That would be entirely justified if the Yronwoods were supporting Aegon for the crown. Indeed, it is important that Dorne does not give his support to Daenerys. The proposal and refusal of Quentyn would be ultimately an attempt to manipulate Doran Martell, so that he would have no choice but to join the cause of his nephew Aegon.

As we saw already, Doran Martell himself did not do anything to help Quentyn, who was left ignorant of dragons, of the way his father earned the hand of his mother, of the military strength of Dorne.

How could Doran have been so indifferent, so neglectful?

Let's return to Quentyn's early life. Here is Arianne's account.
Though if truth be told, she scarcely knew him. Quentyn had been fostered by Lord Anders of House Yronwood, the Bloodroyal, the son of Lord Ormond Yronwood and grandson of Lord Edgar. In his youth her uncle Oberyn had fought a duel with Edgar, had given him a wound that mortified and killed him. Afterward men called him 'the Red Viper,' and spoke of poison on his blade.  The Yronwoods were an ancient house, proud and powerful. Before the coming of the Rhoynar they had been kings over half of Dorne, with domains that dwarfed those of House Martell. Blood feud and rebellion would surely have followed Lord Edgar's death, had not her father acted at once. The Red Viper went to Oldtown, thence across to the narrow sea to Lys, though none dared call it exile. And in due time, Quentyn was given to Lord Anders to foster as a sign of trust. That helped to heal the breach between Sunspear and the Yronwoods, but it had opened new ones between Quentyn and the Sand Snakes... and Arianne had always been closer to her cousins than to her distant brother.
(Arianne, TWoW)
Arianne had recalled before.
Quentyn had been very young when he was sent to Yronwood; too young, according to their mother. Norvoshi did not foster out their children, and Lady Mellario had never forgiven Prince Doran for taking her son away from her. “I like it no more than you do,” Arianne had overheard her father say, “but there is a blood debt, and Quentyn is the only coin Lord Ormond will accept.”
“Coin?” her mother had screamed. “He is your son. What sort of father uses his own flesh and blood to pay his debts?”
“The princely sort,” Doran Martell had answered.
(The Queenmaker, AFfC)

The birth of Quentyn happened almost a decade after the duel, during Robert's rebellion. The fostering happened after the birth of Trystane, but before the fostering of Arianne in Tyrosh had been denied.

Then Mellario left Dorne and returned to Norvos. After that her children hardly heard of her. Here is what Arianne recalls.
She considered appealing to her own mother, but Lady Mellario was far away in Norvos. Besides, Prince Doran had not listened to his lady wife for many years.
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

Quentyn never recalls anything from his mother, except the following thought the day of his death.
I should have gone to Norvos to see my mother and the place that gave her birth, so she would know that I had not forgotten her.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)

It seems that Mellario has abandoned her children. However, all ties are not cut between Doran and Mellario, since Drey is sent to Norvos in service of Mellario after Arianne's failed rebellion.

We come now to the main question.

Could it be that another boy was sent to Yronwood, while Quentyn went away with his mother? Hence the poor boy who died in Meereen was not Doran's son. (That was my immediate intuition when I closed the book.)

Before we examine further that possibility, I shall add that Arianne mentioned twice a similarity between Doran and Quentyn in the areas of physical appearance, and psychology.
“Why not? You favor him and always have. He looks like you, he thinks like you, and you mean to give him Dorne, don’t trouble to deny it. I read your letter.”
(The Princess in the Tower, ADwD)
Almost as silly as Quentyn riding on a dragon.  Her brother was an earnest boy, well-behaved and dutiful, but dull. And plain, so plain. The gods had given Arianne the beauty she had prayed for, but Quentyn must have prayed for something else. His head was overlarge and sort of square, his hair the color of dried mud. His shoulders slumped as well, and he was too thick about the middle. He looks too much like Father.
(Arianne, TWoW)

Of course, the resemblance does not prove that Quentyn is Doran's son. An imposter could have been chosen to look like Prince Doran. The Water Gardens, where common and highborn children play together, constitute an ideal setting to prepare for a switch. The true Prince could remain there posing as a common boy, and enjoy the same life as the real prince that took his place. This is supported by the fact that Arianne never realized that the daughter of the Archon of Tyrosh was among the children in the Water Gardens.
“Oh, and Frynne, her father was a smith. Her hair was brown. Garin was my favorite, though. When I rode Garin no one could defeat us, not even Nym and that green-haired Tyroshi girl.” “That green-haired girl was the Archon’s daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I... I could not do that to her.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

The behavior of Mellario seems inconsistent. She was outraged at the idea of giving her children away. Nevertheless she left Dorne, after what the children practically did not hear of her again. It is worthwile to reflect on one of Quentyn's last thoughts.
The woman, Quentyn realized. He knows that she is female. He is looking for Daenerys. He wants his mother and does not understand why she’s not here.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)

Quentyn had himself lost contact with his mother long ago. Was he projecting some of his childhood feelings on the beast?

We have no reason to see in Mellario a scheming character. The dispute overheard by Arianne seems real. If there was switch of chidren, it happened later and, in all likehood, it is due to Doran.

Fosterings are common in the Seven Kingdoms, and imposters are never sent in place of real heirs. This would be impractical: what to do with the real child? How to deal with the imposter after he returns home? Moreover paying in false coin is a cause for dishonor.

If Doran gave a fake son to the Yronwoods, the question arises of what he intended to do with the imposter and what he intended to do with the real boy. In principle, Quentyn was not Doran's heir. Therefore, if the real Quentyn went, say to Norvos, with Mellario, he could have lived a satisfactory life there, especially since Norvos is a larger city than Sunspear.
Compared to Tyrosh or Myr or Great Norvos, the shadow city was no more than a town, yet it was the nearest thing to a true city that these Dornish had.
(The Captain of Guards, AFfC)

It is possible that Doran has calculated that the Yronwoods would lead Quentyn to a failure. But he could not have predicted that Quentyn would never come back.

We shall make note of the timeline. Quentyn was born during Robert's Rebellion and was given for fostering at least four years after the death of Elia Martell and her children, and after the birth of Trystane. At that time, Doran was already plotting vengeance. If there was a switch of Quentyn with another boy, it could have happened years before Quentyn went to Yronwood. Hence it is of little interest to pinpoint the moment when the fostering of Quentyn began.

We need now to understand further Doran's plans for vengeance.


14. The Braavos Pact

Apparently, Doran's plan had been to marry Arianne to Viserys and work for a Targaryen restoration. We have few indications of that.
“May we know what it says, Your Grace?” asked Ser Barristan. “It is a secret pact,” Dany said, “made in Braavos when I was just a little girl. Ser Willem Darry signed for us, the man who spirited my brother and myself away from Dragonstone before the Usurper’s men could take us. Prince Oberyn Martell signed for Dorne, with the Sealord of Braavos as witness.” She handed the parchment to Ser Barristan, so he might read it for himself. “The alliance is to be sealed by a marriage, it says. In return for Dorne’s help overthrowing the Usurper, my brother Viserys is to take Prince Doran’s daughter Arianne for his queen.”
The old knight read the pact slowly. “If Robert had known of this, he would have smashed Sunspear as he once smashed Pyke, and claimed the heads of Prince Doran and the Red Viper ... and like as not, the head of this Dornish princess too.”
“No doubt that was why Prince Doran chose to keep the pact a secret,” suggested Daenerys. “If my brother Viserys had known that he had a Dornish princess waiting for him, he would have crossed to Sunspear as soon as he was old enough to wed.”
“And thereby brought Robert’s warhammer down upon himself, and Dorne as well,” said Frog. “My father was content to wait for the day that Prince Viserys found his army.”
(Daenerys VII, ADwD)
Much earlier, we had heard of some turmoil in Dorne after the fall of the Targaryens.
“Is it true he tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?”
“No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn’s bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. But Robert never went to Dorne thereafter, and Prince Oberyn seldom left it.”
(Tyrion VI, ASoS)
Doran himself mentioned the pact to Arianne.
Promised. I was promised. “Who is it? Who have I been betrothed to, all these years?”
“It makes no matter. He is dead.”
That left her more baffled than ever. “The old ones are so frail. Was it a broken hip, a chill, the gout?”
“It was a pot of molten gold. We princes make our careful plans and the gods smash them all awry.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

Before commenting further on Doran's plan, let's note that the Braavos pact has a few problems. First, it seems odd that Willem Darry, master-at-arms at the Red Keep, could be legitimate to negociate a marriage pact. Haven't we been told by Jon Snow?
“Your father is a castellan, not a lord. And a castellan has no right to make marriage pacts.”
(Jon X, ADwD)

So we need to imagine that Viserys' mother arranged a document which gave power to Willem Darry. However, the escape from Dragonstone seems to have been precipitated.
She did not remember Dragonstone either. They had run again, just before the Usurper’s brother set sail with his new-built fleet. By then only Dragonstone itself, the ancient seat of their House, had remained of the Seven Kingdoms that had once been theirs. It would not remain for long. The garrison had been prepared to sell them to the Usurper, but one night Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast.
(Daenerys I, AGoT)

It's somewhat unlikely, but not impossible, that Willem Darry was in position to negotiate the pact with Oberyn Martell. It's not clear to me what Dorne would gain by such a pact. Indeed, as an adult Viserys could have claimed that Willem Darry had no right to make such an arrangement. It seems to me that the existence of the pact, which confirm the Martells as Targaryen loyalist, is the main benefit earned by Dorne. Indeed, in case of Targaryen restoration, Doran would be in position to claim that he had always remained loyal to the rightful rulers of the Seven Kingdoms.

In any case, Doran Martell did nothing to reinstall Viserys on the Iron Throne, and abandoned completely Daenerys and Viserys.
At first the magisters and archons and merchant princes were pleased to welcome the last Targaryens to their homes and tables, but as the years passed and the Usurper continued to sit upon the Iron Throne, doors closed and their lives grew meaner. Years past they had been forced to sell their last few treasures, and now even the coin they had gotten from Mother’s crown had gone. In the alleys and wine sinks of Pentos, they called her brother “the beggar king.” Dany did not want to know what they called her.
(Daenerys I, AGoT)

Given all the connections in the Free Cities (the Archon of Tyrosh, the Sealord of Braavos, Oberyn married to a highborn Volantene, the sellsword company founded by Oberyn, connections in Lys etc), one would think that Doran could have arranged that Viserys had some shelter. He could have sent Oberyn Martell to take care of the heir, just like Jon Connington has been used by Varys and Illyrio to take care of Aegon Targaryen.

Note that there does not seem to be any connection between Varys and Illyrio's plan and Doran's plan for a Targaryen restoration. It's worth noting that Viserys never seemed to be aware of the pact.

When and why did Doran stop supporting Viserys' restoration? Was it in reason of Viserys' unpleasant personality? Was it because Doran learnt of Aegon's survival? Or did he have other plans with Quentyn?

When Quentyn went to Yronwood, Doran still intended to marry Arianne to Viserys.
“‘One day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne,’ you wrote him. Tell me, Father, when did you decide to disinherit me? Was it the day that Quentyn was born, or the day that I was born? What did I ever do to make you hate me so?” To her fury, there were tears in her eyes.
“I never hated you.” Prince Doran’s voice was parchment-thin, and full of grief. “Arianne, you do not understand.”
“Do you deny you wrote those words?”
“No. That was when Quentyn first went to Yronwood. I did intend for him to follow me, yes. I had other plans for you.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)
Daenerys is not impressed by the pact.
“The Dornish road?” Dany sighed. The three Dornishmen had been at the feast, as befit Prince Quentyn’s rank, though Reznak had taken care to seat them as far as possible from her husband. Hizdahr did not seem to be of a jealous nature, but no man would be pleased by the presence of a rival suitor near his new bride. “The boy seems pleasant and well spoken, but ...”
“House Martell is ancient and noble, and has been a leal friend to House Targaryen for more than a century, Your Grace. I had the honor of serving with Prince Quentyn’s great-uncle in your father’s seven. Prince Lewyn was as valiant a brother-in-arms as any man could wish for. Quentyn Martell is of the same blood, if it please Your Grace.”
“It would please me if he had turned up with these fifty thousand swords he speaks of. Instead he brings two knights and a parchment. Will a parchment shield my people from the Yunkai’i? If he had come with a fleet ...”
“Sunspear has never been a sea power, Your Grace.”
“No.” Dany knew enough of Westerosi history to know that. Nymeria had landed ten thousand ships upon Dorne’s sandy shores, but when she wed her Dornish prince she had burned them all and turned her back upon the sea forever. “Dorne is too far away. To please this prince, I would need to abandon all my people. You should send him home.”
(Daenerys VIII, ADwD)
Barristan Selmy is not either, despite being favorable to the Dornish road.
Prince Quentyn flushed. “The marriage pact—”
“—was made by two dead men and contained not a word about the queen or you. It promised your sister’s hand to the queen’s brother, another dead man. It has no force. Until you turned up here, Her Grace was ignorant of its existence. Your father keeps his secrets well, Prince Quentyn. Too well, I fear. If the queen had known of this pact in Qarth, she might never have turned aside for Slaver’s Bay, but you came too late. I have no wish to salt your wounds, but Her Grace has a new husband and an old paramour, and seems to prefer the both of them to you.”
(The Discarded Knight, ADwD)

So the pact carried little weight, and did not impress anybody. It even seemed stale. After all, it even appeared counterproductive, since it might raise the question of why Doran Martell did not help Daenerys and Viserys in their hour of need. Beside providing the pact, the only effort made by Doran to help Quentyn in his quest seems to be financial in nature.

As far as I can say, the plan to marry Viserys to Arianne seems to have been sincere at first. But it seems to have been abandoned. At which point?

One possible moment would seem when Willem Darry died and Dany and Viserys were expelled from Braavos, a place their never returned to apparently. Dany was old enough to recall the moment.
She remembered Ser Willem dimly, a great grey bear of a man, halfblind, roaring and bellowing orders from his sickbed. The servants had lived in terror of him, but he had always been kind to Dany. He called her “Little Princess” and sometimes “My Lady,” and his hands were soft as old leather. He never left his bed, though, and the smell of sickness clung to him day and night, a hot, moist, sickly sweet odor. That was when they lived in Braavos, in the big house with the red door. Dany had her own room there, with a lemon tree outside her window. After Ser Willem had died, the servants had stolen what little money they had left, and soon after they had been put out of the big house. Dany had cried when the red door closed behind them forever. They had wandered since then, from Braavos to Myr, from Myr to Tyrosh, and on to Qohor and Volantis and Lys, never staying long in any one place. Her brother would not allow it. The Usurper’s hired knives were close behind them, he insisted, though Dany had never seen one.
(Daenerys I, AGoT)

The Sealord apparently supported Viserys, since he witnessed the pact. He could have easily arranged that Dany and Viserys remain in the house with the red door, or somewhere else in Braavos. Here is another sign of change of attitude of Doran Martell.
“Is it true he tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?”
“No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn’s bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. But Robert never went to Dorne thereafter, and Prince Oberyn seldom left it.”
(Tyrion VI, ASoS)

We don't know when the meeting between Jon Arryn and Doran happened. It could be at any point during Robert's reign, but it probably happened only a few years after the fall of the Targaryens.

There is another sign yet.
“That green-haired girl was the Archon’s daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I... I could not do that to her.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

It would seem that after Quentyn went to Yronwood, Doran still intended to marry Ariane to Viserys. That is after the birth of Trystane, who is four years younger than Quentyn.

In any case, there is no sign that Doran intended to pursue his plans to marry Arianne to Viserys after he renounced sending Arianne to Tyrosh. After all, Doran did not send Arianne to Tyrosh, which sounds like a renouncement. What did he do instead? What did he give the Archon of Tyrosh in exchange for the fostering of his daughter?


15. Arianne

Did Doran tell the truth to Arianne when he disclosed his plans? It's not clear, as we will see. First, he hid Quentyn's mission to Arianne in the name of secrecy, and in reason of the fear of Varys. But he entrusted the Yronwoods, a house not particularly close to the Martells, which seems to nurse grudges against the Martell. As we saw, the Yronwoods did little to keep their secret.

The conversation where Doran disclosed his plans to Arianne happened after Arianne was in isolation in the tower, probably to reflect on her rebellion and read the books Doran gave her. Did Doran meet a wiser Arianne?

Doran explains why he left Arianne ignorant of the marriage pact.
“I know. If I kept you ignorant too long, it was only to protect you. Arianne, your nature... to you, a secret was only a choice tale to whisper to Garin and Tyene in your bed of a night. Garin gossips as only the orphans can, and Tyene keeps nothing from Obara and the Lady Nym. And if they knew... Obara is too fond of wine, and Nym is too close to the Fowler twins. And who might the Fowler twins confide in? I could not take the risk.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)
He had told Quentyn to be discreet as well.
Quentyn had begun to think that they might have done better to buy their own ship in the Planky Town. That would have drawn unwanted attention, however. The Spider had informers everywhere, even in the halls of Sunspear. “Dorne will bleed if your purpose is discovered,” his father had warned him, as they watched the children frolic in the pools and fountains of the Water Gardens. “What we do is treason, make no mistake. Trust only your companions, and do your best to avoid attracting notice.”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Finally, Doran tells the tale.
His tale grows ever stranger. “Is that where Quentyn’s gone? To Tyrosh, to court the Archon’s green-haired daughter?”
Her father plucked up a cyvasse piece. “I must know how you learned that Quentyn was abroad. Your brother went with Cletus Yronwood, Maester Kedry, and three of Lord Yronwood’s best young knights on a long and perilous voyage, with an uncertain welcome at its end. He has gone to bring us back our heart’s desire.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

I can't see Doran's answer as a complete lie. However, there are two signs that Doran is not truthful. The picking of a cyvasse piece points to an indirect and subtle thinking. Then there is a preamble: I must know how you learned that Quentyn was abroad.
Arianne has not fulfilled Doran's precondition, which seems to indicate that he feels free to keep his secrets as well.

The rest of the dialogue.
She narrowed her eyes. “What is our heart’s desire?”
“Vengeance.” His voice was soft, as if he were afraid that someone might be listening. “Justice.” Prince Doran pressed the onyx dragon into her palm with his swollen, gouty fingers, and whispered, “Fire and blood.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)
Onyx dragon...

Let's turn now to Arianne's mission to meet Aegon with a small party and see how the treatment of Arianne compares to the treatment of Quentyn.

Quentyn hardly remembered any interaction with his father. Here is one.
“Dorne will bleed if your purpose is discovered,” his father had warned him, as they watched the children frolic in the pools and fountains of the Water Gardens. “What we do is treason, make no mistake. Trust only your companions, and do your best to avoid attracting notice.”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Here is another piece of advice from Doran.
“Maester Kedry will accompany you,” his father said the night they parted. “Heed his counsel. He has devoted half his life to the study of the Nine Free Cities.”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
“Tywin Lannister will send his own men after the queen once word of her reaches King’s Landing.” His father had been certain of that. “His will come with knives. If they reach her first—”
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Quentyn ponders the possibility of failure.
Crawl back to Sunspear defeated, with my tail between my legs? His father’s disappointment would be more than Quentyn could bear, and the scorn of the Sand Snakes would be withering. Doran Martell had put the fate of Dorne into his hands, he could not fail him, not whilst life remained.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
Another reflection underlines how odd is Quentyn's mission.
Quentyn had no idea what Daenerys Targaryen might like. He had promised his father that he would bring her back to Dorne, but more and more he wondered if he was equal to the task.
I never asked for this, he thought.
(The Merchant's Man, ADwD)
We have discussed already the following passage.
If Daenerys is as murdeous as her father, must I still marry her? Prince Doran had never spoken of that possibility.
(The Windblown, ADwD)
Doran has subtly instilled in Quentyn a fear of failure and played on his sense of duty.
It would be sweet to see the Greenblood again, to visit Sunspear and the Water Gardens and breathe the clean sweet mountain air of Yronwood in place of the hot, wet, filthy humors of Slaver’s Bay. His father would speak no word of rebuke, Quentyn knew, but the disappointment would be there in his eyes. His sister would be scornful, the Sand Snakes would mock him with smiles sharp as swords, and Lord Yronwood, his second father, who had sent his own son along to keep him safe ...
“I will not keep you here,” Quentyn told his friends. “My father laid this task on me, not you. Go home, if that is what you want. By whatever means you like. I am staying.”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
That would lead Quentyn to attempt to tame the dragons.
“Fuck your lineage,” said Gerris. “The dragons won’t care about your blood, except maybe how it tastes. You cannot tame a dragon with a history lesson. They’re monsters, not maesters. Quent, is this truly what you want to do?”
“This is what I have to do. For Dorne. For my father. For Cletus and Will and Maester Kedry.”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
Again, the sense of duty expressed to the Tattered Prince.
“I am a prince of Dorne,” said Quentyn. “I had a duty to my father and my people. There was a secret marriage pact.”
(The Spurned Suitor, ADwD)
Another motivation of Quentyn is the desire to be a hero, and the faith in his manifest destiny.
He was not wrong. That was in the stories too. The hero sets out with his friends and companions, faces dangers, comes home triumphant. Only some of his companions don’t return at all. The hero never dies, though. I must be the hero. “All I need is courage. Would you have Dorne remember me as a failure?”
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
Near the end, Quentyn stills thought of his father.
Quentyn let his whip uncoil. “Viserion,” he called, louder this time. He could do this, he would do this, his father had sent him to the far ends of the earth for this, he would not fail him. “VISERION!” He snapped the whip in the air with a crack that echoed off the blackened walls.
(The Dragontamer, ADwD)
At no point, Doran manifested any form of affection for Quentyn, who recalls only duty.

Let's compare with the treatment of Arianne.
On the morning that she left the Water Gardens, her father rose from his chair to kiss her on both cheeks. "The fate of Dorne goes with you, daughter," he said, as he pressed the parchment into her hand. "Go swiftly, go safely, be my eyes and ears and voice... but most of all, take care."
"I will, Father." She did not shed a tear. Arianne Martell was a princess of Dorne, and Dornishmen did not waste water lightly. It was a near thing, though. It was not her father's kisses nor his hoarse words that made her eyes glisten, but the effort that brought him to his feet, his legs trembling under him, his joints swollen and inflamed with gout. Standing was an act of love. Standing was an act of faith. 
He believes in me. I will not fail him.
(Arianne, TWoW)

Just like with Quentyn, Doran instilled in Arianne a sense of duty. However, there seems to be an affection in his treatment of his daughter that was absent in Quentyn, as far as we know through Quentyn's memories.

Doran Martell betrayed his emotions toward Arianne in several other occasions.
“That was my mistake, and it has proved a grievous one. You are my daughter, Arianne. The little girl who used to run to me when she skinned her knee. I found it hard to believe that you would conspire against me. I had to learn the truth.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)
“I never hated you.” Prince Doran’s voice was parchment-thin, and full of grief. “Arianne, you do not understand.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

It's true that Arianne always doubted Doran's affection for her. In the mission to find Aegon, Arianne has been given as companions Doran's people, not the Yronwoods'. She even wonders why Daemon Sands is with her.
Of all the knights in Dorne, why did my father chose this one to be my shield? He knows our history.
(Arianne, TWoW)
At least, this is the sign that Doran has given some thought to the companions given to Arianne.

Note that Arianne avoids Yronwood in her journey to Griffin's Roost. Of course taking a ship is faster and simpler. But there are pirates and other dangers in the Narrow Sea. It could have safer and instructive to go through Yronwood.

Let's have a short look at Arianne's companions.
Seven of them set out together on seven Dornish sand steeds. A small party travels more swiftly than a large one, but the heir to Dorne does not ride alone. From Godsgrace came Ser Daemon Sand, the bastard; once Prince Oberyn's squire, now Arianne's sworn shield.  From Sunspear two bold young knights, Joss Hood and Garibald Shells, to lend their swords to his. From the Water Gardens seven ravens and a tall young lad to tend them. His name was Nate, but he had been working with the birds so long that no one called him anything but Feathers. And since a princess must have some women to attend her, her company also included pretty Jayne Ladybright and wild Elia Sand, a maid of ten-and-four.
(Arianne, TWoW)

The companions of Arianne are signifcantly closer to Doran Martell than the companions of Quentyn were. Daemon Sand was Oberyn's squire (and lover). No man was closer to Doran than Oberyn was. Joss Hood and Garibald Shells are unknown, except that they come from Sunspear. Nate is certainly close to Doran. Jayne Ladybright is probably kin to  Alyse Ladybright, treasurer of Sunspear, and part of Doran's inner circle (along with Ricasso, and Manfred Martell). Elia Sand is, of course, one of Oberyn's daughter.

Arianne is probably not set up for a repeat of Quentyn's story.


16. The most sentimental Man in Westeros

To this day, the word sentimental has been used twice by Martin in the telling of his story. The first occurence is ironic.
Petyr Baelish smiled. “I am desperately sentimental, sweet lady. Best not tell anyone. I have spent years convincing the court that I am wicked and cruel, and I should hate to see all that hard work go for naught.”
(Eddard IV, AGoT)

The second occurence is of interest to us. It's a conversation between Tyrion and Varys, where Doran Martell is mentioned for the first time.
“The only puzzle is what you might have offered for his allegiance. The prince is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe.”
“My father once told me that a lord never lets sentiment get in the way of ambition... and it happens we have an empty seat on the small council, now that Lord Janos has taken the black.”
(Tyrion IV, ACoK)

The plan for vengeance of Doran Martell has hardly any reason to continue after the death of Tywin Lannister. Tywin, Gregor Clegane, Amory Lorch are no more. So Doran could continue a vendetta against House Lannister. But many have already perceived that the Lion is on the decline, and none of the living Lannisters are personally responsible for the death of Elia and her children, which is exactly what Ellaria Sands tells the Sand Snakes.
“A start?” said Ellaria Sand, incredulous. “Gods forbid. I would it were a finish. Tywin Lannister is dead. So are Robert Baratheon, Amory Lorch, and now Gregor Clegane, all those who had a hand in murdering Elia and her children. Even Joffrey, who was not yet born when Elia died. I saw the boy perish with mine own eyes, clawing at his throat as he tried to draw a breath. Who else is there to kill? Do Myrcella and Tommen need to die so the shades of Rhaenys and Aegon can be at rest? Where does it end?”
“It ends in blood, as it began,” said Lady Nym. “It ends when Casterly Rock is cracked open, so the sun can shine on the maggots and the worms within. It ends with the utter ruin of Tywin Lannister and all his works.”
(The Watcher, ADwD)
Later Doran expressed some agreement with Ellaria.
The prince gave her a curious look. “She understood more than you ever will, Nymeria. And she made your father happy. In the end a gentle heart may be worth more than pride or valor. Be that as it may, there are things Ellaria does not know and should not know. This war has already begun.”
(The Watcher, ADwD)
I believe that Doran Martell plays a larger game than mere vengeance against the Lannisters.

Let's explore further a key episode of the life of Doran Martell.
“I saw Volantis once, on my way to Norvos, where I first met Mellario. The bells were ringing, and the bears danced down the steps. Areo will recall the day.”
“I remember,” echoed Areo Hotah in his deep voice. “The bears danced and the bells rang, and the prince wore red and gold and orange. My lady asked me who it was who shone so bright.”
(The Princess in the Tower, AFfC)

Going to Norvos through Volantis necessarily means foregoing the sea route through Pentos and the Valyrian roads. It means that Doran took a ship and undertook a journey upriver on the Rhoyne. Then, necessarily he had to travel through the Rhoynar ancestral lands. Of course half the Martell ancestry is Rhoynar, and has its root in the Rhoyne basin.

It is not clear that meeting Mellario was the purpose of the journey. The meeting happened in Norvos, not Volantis. Indeed the bells are a hallmark of Norvos. Was the journey a sort of pilgrimage?

Queen Nymeria, who led the Rhoynar refugees to Dorne, forbid her people to go back. It does not seem likely that a prince of Dorne should undertake a journey across the Narrow Sea. However, Doran Martell could not have escaped being impressed by what he saw.
All Tyrion could see was something massive rising from the river, humped and ominous. He took it for a hill looming above a wooded island, or some colossal rock overgrown with moss and ferns and hidden by the fog. As the Shy Maid drew nearer, though, the shape of it came clearer. A wooden keep could be seen beside the water, rotted and overgrown. Slender spires took form above it, some of them snapped off like broken spears. Roofless towers appeared and disappeared, thrusting blindly upward. Halls and galleries drifted past: graceful buttresses, delicate arches, fluted columns, terraces and bowers.
All ruined, all desolate, all fallen.
The grey moss grew thickly here, covering the fallen stones in great mounds and bearding all the towers. Black vines crept in and out of windows, through doors and over archways, up the sides of high stone walls. The fog concealed three-quarters of the palace, but what they glimpsed was more than enough for Tyrion to know that this island fastness had been ten times the size of the Red Keep once and a hundred times more beautiful. He knew where he was. “The Palace of Love,” he said softly.
“That was the Rhoynar name,” said Haldon Halfmaester, “but for a thousand years this has been the Palace of Sorrow.”
The ruin was sad enough, but knowing what it had been made it even sadder. There was laughter here once, Tyrion thought. There were gardens bright with flowers and fountains sparkling golden in the sun. These steps once rang to the sound of lovers’ footsteps, and beneath that broken dome marriages beyond count were sealed with a kiss. His thoughts turned to Tysha, who had so briefly been his lady wife. It was Jaime, he thought, despairing. He was my own blood, my big strong brother. When I was small he brought me toys, barrel hoops and blocks and a carved wooden lion. He gave me my first pony and taught me how to ride him. When he said that he had bought you for me, I never doubted him. Why would I? He was Jaime, and you were just some girl who’d played a part. I had feared it from the start, from the moment you first smiled at me and let me touch your hand. My own father could not love me. Why would you if not for gold?
Through the long grey fingers of the fog, he heard again the deep shuddering thrum of a bowstring snapping taut, the grunt Lord Tywin made as the quarrel took him beneath the belly, the slap of cheeks on stone as he sat back down to die. “Wherever whores go,” he said. And where is that? Tyrion wanted to ask him. Where did Tysha go, Father? “How much more of this fog must we endure?”
(Tyrion V, ADwD)

Note how the place affects Tyrion's mood and reminds him of his golden days with Tysha. We are left to imagine what impression it made on Doran Martell.

A comparison with Doran's favorite palace is in order. The Water Gardens evoke for Doran Martell a lost paradise, which could have found an echo in the Sorrows, the palace of his Rhoynish ancestors.
“I am eager to see her once again,” said Ser Balon. “And to visit your Water Gardens. I’ve heard they are very beautiful.”
“Beautiful and peaceful,” the prince said. “Cool breezes, sparkling water, and the laughter of children. The Water Gardens are my favorite place in this world, ser. One of my ancestors had them built to please his Targaryen bride and free her from the dust and heat of Sunspear. Daenerys was her name. She was sister to King Daeron the Good, and it was her marriage that made Dorne part of the Seven Kingdoms. The whole realm knew that the girl loved Daeron’s bastard brother Daemon Blackfyre, and was loved by him in turn, but the king was wise enough to see that the good of thousands must come before the desires of two, even if those two were dear to him. It was Daenerys who filled the gardens with laughing children. Her own children at the start, but later the sons and daughters of lords and landed knights were brought in to be companions to the boys and girls of princely blood. And one summer’s day when it was scorching hot, she took pity on the children of her grooms and cooks and serving men and invited them to use the pools and fountains too, a tradition that has endured till this day.”
(The Watcher, ADwD)
Is Doran Martell driven by a longing for a blessed time, before the dragons came?
“It is that.” A pleasant enough river, I suppose, but the smallest fork of the Trident is twice as wide, and all three of them run swifter. The city was no more impressive. Ghoyan Drohe had never been large, Tyrion recalled from his histories, but it had been a fair place, green and flowering, a city of canals and fountains. Until the war. Until the dragons came.
(Tyrion III, ADwD)

To go further, one would need to examine the relationship of Dorne to the Targaryens. We are not going to do that here. In some sense, the long resistance of the Dornishmen to the Targaryen rule echoes the war of the Rhoynar and the Valyrians. But the dragons that crushed Harren the Black, the Gardener King, etc seemed to have been powerless against Dorne. This is alluded to by House Tolland.
"A dragon eating its own tail, aye," Valena said. "From the days of Aegon's Conquest. He did not conquer here. Elsewhere he burned his foes, him and his sisters, but here we melted away before them, leaving only stone and sand for them to burn. And round and round the dragons went, snapping at their tails for want of any other food, till they were tied in knots."
(Arianne, TWoW)

However, that doesn't explain why Sunspear escaped the dragons. It reminds me of another city never conquered by the Dragons. Qarth, just like Sunspear, is located in the middle of a desert, and was not part of the Valyrian empire, despite the proximity of Slaver's Bay. I find a little detail worthy of interest.
Dany took the warlock’s words well salted, but the magnificence of the great city was not to be denied. Three thick walls encircled Qarth, elaborately carved. The outer was red sandstone, thirty feet high and decorated with animals: snakes slithering, kites flying, fish swimming, intermingled with wolves of the red waste and striped zorses and monstrous elephants. The middle wall, forty feet high, was grey granite alive with scenes of war: the clash of sword and shield and spear, arrows in flight, heroes at battle and babes being butchered, pyres of the dead. The innermost wall was fifty feet of black marble, with carvings that made Dany blush until she told herself that she was being a fool. She was no maid; if she could look on the grey wall’s scenes of slaughter, why should she avert her eyes from the sight of men and women giving pleasure to one another?
The outer gates were banded with copper, the middle with iron; the innermost were studded with golden eyes. All opened at Dany’s approach. As she rode her silver into the city, small children rushd out to scatter flowers in her path. They wore golden sandals and bright paint, no more.
(Daenerys II, ACoK)
Here is Sunspear.
To the west, in the shadows of Sunspear’s massive walls, mud-brick shops and windowless hovels clung to the castle like barnacles to a galley’s hull. Stables and inns and winesinks and pillow houses had grown up west of those, many enclosed by walls of their own, and yet more hovels had risen beneath those walls. And so and so and so, as the bearded priests would say. Compared to Tyrosh or Myr or Great Norvos, the shadow city was no more than a town, yet it was the nearest thing to a true city that these Dornish had.
Lady Nym’s arrival had preceded theirs by some hours, and no doubt she had warned the guards of their coming, for the Threefold Gate was open when they reached it. Only here were the gates lined up one behind the other to allow visitors to pass beneath all three of the Winding Walls directly to the Old Palace, without first making their way through miles of narrow alleys, hidden courts, and noisy bazaars.
(The Captain of Guards, AFfC)

So both cities are protected by a series of three massive walls. Warded against dragons? The idea of warding has already been put forth in the Red Waste.


The Winterfell Huis Clos