THE  UNHOODED MAN AND THE BUTCHER

(A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD)

Contents

1. Entrance
2. In the Great Hall
3. In the Solar
4. News brought to Winterfell?
5. The Escape
6. The devoted Squire
7. Ramsay's Day before the Escape
8. What has happened?

1. Entrance

Two days before the encounter with Theon, we learned about the state of Winterfell's gates.

Winterfell’s great main gates were closed and barred, and so choked with ice and snow that the portcullis would need to be chipped free before it could be raised. Much the same was true of the Hunter’s Gate, though there at least ice was not a problem, since the gate had seen recent use. The Kingsroad Gate had not, and ice had frozen those drawbridge chains rock hard. Which left the Battlements Gate, a small arched postern in the inner wall. Only half a gate, in truth, it had a drawbridge that spanned the frozen moat but no corresponding gateway through the outer wall, offering access to the outer ramparts but not the world beyond.

We had been warned before.

Every gate was closed and barred and heavily guarded, though; no one was allowed to enter or depart the castle without Lord Bolton’s leave.

And again.

Lord Bolton had Winterfell sewn up tight as a babe’s swaddling clothes. No one could come or go without his leave.

So nobody comes in the castle at this point. We have been told a day before that.

“To fight Lord Stannis we would first need to find him,” Roose Ryswell pointed out. “Our scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate, but of late, none of them return.”

Given that Crowfood greenboys are out of the castle digging traps, it means that the outriders have been ambushed by Mors' men. Since the hooded man managed to get in, he must have had Mors' leave, which is well in line with our remarks about their common use of the word kinslayer.

One can wonder about a secret passage. Bran knows that there is a secret tunnel in the inner Wall.

And he knew you could get inside the inner wall by the south gate, climb three floors and run all the way around Winterfell through a narrow tunnel in the stone, and then come out on ground level at the north gate, with a hundred feet of wall looming over you. Even Maester Luwin didn’t know that, Bran was convinced.

Such a passage seems to be of little help to get inside the castle. In any case, it doesn't help to get across the outer Wall. One could wonder if there is a passage through the crypts. Neither Ramsay when he put the castle to the torch, nor Roose when he came to restore the place seems to have ever paid any attention to the crypts. Since the Dreadfort has crypts as well, it would be surprising if Roose were fooled by such a possibility. We don't know whether Roose is aware of Barbrey Dustin's visit with Theon. In any case, Roose did not have the entrance of the cryptes guarded. He might be entirely unaware of the crypts, since his ally Barbrey Dustin could not locate the entrance.

Let's assume that the man has entered the castle by the Hunter's Gate. The man does not seem to have sneaked in. Indeed, he spoke to Theon on his own volition, and wouldn't have had he wanted to remain discreet.

Furthermore, Theon meets the man on his way out of the Great Hall. The snow has limited circulation to the trenches in Winterfell: He found himself alone in a white wilderness, walls of snow looming up to either side of him chest high. In other words, Theon is in a corridor. This is further confirmed by the fact that : Farther on, he came upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. The use of the phrase the opposite direction (definite article) seems to indicate that there is no alternative to going forward and backward. However, the phrase farther on is unfortunately vague, and does not rule out that Theon has walked some distance.

We have some further understanding of the system of trenches during the escape the next day.

Not ten yards from the door, Rowan dropped her empty pail, and her sisters did likewise. The Great Keep was already lost to sight behind them. The yard was a white wilderness, full of half-heard sounds that echoed strangely amidst the storm. The icy trenches rose around them, knee high, then waist high, then higher than their heads. They were in the heart of Winterfell with the castle all around them, but no sign of it could be seen. They might have easily been lost amidst the Land of Always Winter, a thousand leagues beyond the Wall. “It’s cold,” Jeyne Poole whimpered as she stumbled along at Theon’s side.
And soon to be colder. Beyond the castle walls, winter was waiting with its icy teeth. If we get that far. “This way,” he said when they came to a junction where three trenches crossed.
“Frenya, Holly, go with them,” Rowan said. “We will be along with Abel. Do not wait for us.” And with that, she whirled and plunged into the snow, toward the Great Hall. Willow and Myrtle hurried after her, cloaks snapping in the wind.

At the junction where the three trenches meet, one can go to the Great Hall, or to the Great Keep or towards other places, which include the Battlement Gate. Apparently at the junction, one can not hear clearly the sounds, and it is doubtful that Theon could still have heard the sad, soft song that Abel was singing the previous night when Theon had just left the Great Hall.

The natural understanding seems to be that the man can hardly go anywhere but to the Great Hall.

Hence, the man is not paying a clandestine visit to Winterfell. However, he does not wear any distinctive mark, while Theon is able to identify most men by the badge of their house (Tallhart, Cerwyn, Hornwood, Flint, Frey etc). Not wearing such a mark is suspicious. Roose has set watchers everywhere in Winterfell as we understand from Theon.

“I am told you have been wandering the castle,” Lord Bolton began. “Men have reported seeing you in the stables, in the kitchens, in the barracks, on the battlements. You have been observed near the ruins of collapsed keeps, outside Lady Catelyn’s old sept, coming and going from the godswood. Do you deny it?”

Since the way to the Great Hall is a well frequented passage, I don't see any possibility for the hooded man to be paying a secret visit to Winterfell. The absence of identification mark, and the precautions currently taken by Roose because of the recent murders, make unlikely that he could melt into the crowd.

The hooded man is striding in the passages, despite the current conditions in Winterfell.

White walls rose to either side as he and Rowan made their way to the godswood; the paths between keep and tower and hall had turned into a maze of icy trenches, shoveled out hourly to keep them clear. It was easy to get lost in that frozen labyrinth, but Theon Greyjoy knew every twist and turning.

Hence the hooded man seems to be familiar with the castle.

The hooded man wears only a dagger as he is about to enter the Hall. This is in accordance with the rule edicted by Roose.

No longswords had been allowed within the hall, but every man there wore a dagger, even Theon Greyjoy.

If the hooded man came into the castle secretly, how could he know about Roose's rule? His sword was probably left at the entrance of the castle. (The rule is violated all the time by Ramsay, and at least once by the Freys.)

In this scenario, I find unnatural, but not impossible, that no Bolton man came with the hooded man to announce the arrival to the lord.

Hence we are left with the notion that the man is going to the Great Hall, without any apprehension to meet the Warden of the North.

The hooded man's entrance to the castle might have been prepared by an incident that happened two days before.

“The gods have turned against us,” old Lord Locke was heard to say in the Great Hall. “This is their wroth. A wind as cold as hell itself and snows that never end. We are cursed.”
“Stannis is cursed,” a Dreadfort man insisted. “He is the one out there in the storm.”
“Lord Stannis might be warmer than we know,” one foolish freerider argued. “His sorceress can
summon fire. Might be her red god can melt these snows.”
That was unwise, Theon knew at once. The man spoke too loudly, and in the hearing of Yellow Dick and Sour Alyn and Ben Bones. When the tale reached Lord Ramsay, he sent his Bastard’s Boys to seize the man and drag him out into the snow. “As you seem so fond of Stannis, we will send you to him,” he said. Damon Dance-for-Me gave the freerider a few lashes with his long greased whip. Then, whilst Skinner and Yellow Dick made wagers on how fast his blood would freeze, Ramsay had the man dragged up to the Battlements Gate.
[...]
The bleeding freerider was carried across the bridge and up the steps, still protesting. Then Skinner and Sour Alyn seized his arms and legs and tossed him from the wall to the ground eighty feet below. The drifts had climbed so high that they swallowed the man bodily ... but bowmen on the battlements claimed they glimpsed him sometime later, dragging a broken leg through the snow. One feathered his rump with an arrow as he wriggled away. “He will be dead within the hour,” Lord Ramsay promised.
“Or he’ll be sucking Lord Stannis’s cock before the sun goes down,” Whoresbane Umber threw back.

Whoresbane does not believe that Stannis is that close to Winterfell. However, Mors Umber might be, since the Ryswell scouts are said to be disappearing. The poor freerider might have ended up with Crowfood. There he might have reported the tensions inside the castle and the current anxiety about Stannis' arrival. This might have played a role in Crowfood's choice of tactic. It might  have been precious information for the hooded man as well. Beside the general atmosphere inside the castle, there is little that the freerider could have reported to Crowfood.

2. In the Great Hall

Here is the state of the Great Hall before Theon left the place to come across the hooded man.

The reek within the Great Hall was palpable by eventide. With hundreds of horses, dogs, and men squeezed underneath one roof, the floors slimy with mud and melting snow, horseshit, dog turds,
and even human feces, the air redolent with the smells of wet dog, wet wool, and sodden horse blankets, there was no comfort to be found amongst the crowded benches, but there was food. The cooks served up great slabs of fresh horsemeat, charred outside and bloody red within, with roast onions and neeps ... and for once, the common soldiers ate as well as the lords and knights.
The horsemeat was too tough for the ruins of Theon’s teeth. His attempts to chew gave him excruciating pain. So he mashed the neeps and onions up together with the flat of his dagger and made a meal of that, then cut the horse up very small, sucked on each piece, and spat it out. That way at least he had the taste, and some nourishment from the grease and blood. The bone was beyond him, though, so he tossed it to the dogs and watched Grey Jeyne make off with it whilst Sara and Willow snapped at her heels.
Lord Bolton commanded Abel to play for them as they ate. The bard sang “Iron Lances,” then “The Winter Maid.” When Barbrey Dustin asked for something more cheerful, he gave them “The Queen Took Off Her Sandal, the King Took Off His Crown,” and “The Bear and the Maiden Fair.” The Freys joined the singing, and even a few northmen slammed their fists on the table to the chorus, bellowing, “A bear! A bear!” But the noise frightened the horses, so the singers soon let off and the music died away.

So a certain confusion reigns in the Hall, because of the necessity to accomodate the horses. But we know that Lord Bolton can see the whole of the Hall from the dais. He could see Abel in the back of the hall, in the proximity of horses.

He turned his head, his pale cold eyes searching the hall until they found the bard Abel beside Theon. “Singer,” he called, “come sing us something soothing.”

The notion that the hooded man could come discreetly to the Great Hall seems unlikely to me. In particular, we have been told what is the standard behavior for those who enter the place.

Men entering the hall huddled by the fires or clapped their hands together over glowing braziers as their cloaks hung dripping from pegs inside the door.

Hence, it is unnatural to keep a cloak inside the hall. We can infer that, if the hooded man kept his cloak after entering the building, it was at the risk of attracting attention. Probably he did not keep it.

We know who was in the Great Hall: Roose Bolton, Barbrey Dustin, Abel, the Freys (does the definite article imply the presence of Hosteen, Aenys, and the Walders?). More noticeable people could have been in attendance as well. However, Ramsay was not present, as the following scene shows.

The Bastard’s Boys gathered beneath a wall sconce where a torch was flaming smokily. Luton and Skinner were throwing dice. Grunt had a woman in his lap, a breast in his hand. Damon Dance-for-Me sat greasing up his whip. “Reek,” he called. He tapped the whip against his calf as a man might do to summon his dog. “You are starting to stink again, Reek.”
Theon had no reply for that beyond a soft “Yes.”
“Lord Ramsay means to cut your lips off when all this is done,” said Damon, stroking his whip with a greasy rag.
My lips have been between his lady’s legs. That insolence cannot go un-punished. “As you say.” Luton guffawed. “I think he wants it.”
“Go away, Reek,” Skinner said. “The smell of you turns my stomach.” The others laughed.
He fled quickly, before they changed their minds. His tormentors would not follow him outside. Not so long as there was food and drink within, willing women and warm fires. As he left the hall, Abel was singing “The Maids That Bloom in Spring.”

A few more things are worthy of notice. A few northmen joined the singing with the Freys. It seems to point to a certain goodwill between the northmen and the men of the riverlands, in spite of the Red Wedding.

Evidently, Barbrey Dustin is in a good mood at this point.
 

3. In the Solar

After meeting with the hooded man, Theon has wandered in the castle for a few hours.

Theon trudged through the storm until his arms and legs were caked with snow and his hands and feet had gone numb from cold, then climbed to the battlements of the inner wall again. Up here, a hundred feet high, a little wind was blowing, stirring the snow. All the crenels had filled up. Theon had to punch through a wall of snow to make a hole ... only to find that he could not see beyond the moat. Of the outer wall, nothing remained but a vague shadow and a few dim lights floating in the dark.

We noted already the dim lights on the outer Wall. This is remarkable, since we have been told that the guards gather in the towers to stay warm.

Then Theon is summoned by Roose.

Theon returned to his own chambers. He was stripping off his wet clothes when Steelshanks Walton found him. “Come with me, turncloak. His lordship wants words with you.”

The next scene seems the continuation of what happened in the Great Hall after the visit of the hooded man.

He had no clean dry clothes, so he wriggled back into the same damp rags and followed. Steelshanks led him back to the Great Keep and the solar that had once been Eddard Stark’s. Lord Bolton was not alone. Lady Dustin sat with him, pale-faced and severe; an iron horsehead brooch clasped Roger Ryswell’s cloak; Aenys Frey stood near the fire, pinched cheeks flushed with cold.
“I am told you have been wandering the castle,” Lord Bolton began. “Men have reported seeing you in the stables, in the kitchens, in the barracks, on the battlements. You have been observed near the ruins of collapsed keeps, outside Lady Catelyn’s old sept, coming and going from the godswood. Do you deny it?”
“No, m’lord.” Theon made sure to muddy up the word. He knew that pleased Lord Bolton. “I cannot sleep, m’lord. I walk.” He kept his head down, fixed upon the old stale rushes scattered on the floor. It was not wise to look his lordship in the face.
“I was a boy here before the war. A ward of Eddard Stark.”
“You were a hostage,” Bolton said. “Yes, m’lord. A hostage.” It was my home, though. Not a true home, but the best I ever knew.
“Someone has been killing my men.”
“Yes, m’lord.”
“Not you, I trust?” Bolton’s voice grew even softer. “You would not repay all my kindnesses with such treachery.”
“No, m’lord, not me. I wouldn’t. I ... only walk, is all.” Lady Dustin spoke up. “Take off your gloves.”
Theon glanced up sharply. “Please, no. I ... I ...”
“Do as she says,” Ser Aenys said. “Show us your hands.”
Theon peeled his gloves off and held his hands up for them to see. It is not as if I stand before them naked. It is not so bad as that. His left hand had three fingers, his right four. Ramsay had taken only the pinky off the one, the ring finger and forefingers from the other.
“The Bastard did this to you,” Lady Dustin said. “If it please m’lady, I ... I asked it of him.” Ramsay always made him ask. Ramsay always makes me beg.
“Why would you do that?”
“I ... I did not need so many fingers.”
“Four is enough.” Ser Aenys Frey fingered the wispy brown beard that sprouted from his weak chin like a rat’s tail. “Four on his right hand. He could still hold a sword. A dagger.”
Lady Dustin laughed. “Are all Freys such fools? Look at him. Hold a dagger? He hardly has the strength to hold a spoon. Do you truly think he could have overcome the Bastard’s disgusting creature and shoved his manhood down his throat?”
“These dead were all strong men,” said Roger Ryswell, “and none of them were stabbed. The turncloak’s not our killer.”
Roose Bolton’s pale eyes were fixed on Theon, as sharp as Skinner’s flaying knife. “I am inclined to agree. Strength aside, he does not have it in him to betray my son.”
Roger Ryswell grunted. “If not him, who? Stannis has some man inside the castle, that’s plain.”
Reek is no man. Not Reek. Not me. He wondered if Lady Dustin had told them about the crypts, the missing swords.
“We must look at Manderly,” muttered Ser Aenys Frey. “Lord Wyman loves us not.”
Ryswell was not convinced. “He loves his steaks and chops and meat pies, though. Prowling the castle by dark would require him to leave the table. The only time he does that is when he seeks the privy for one of his hourlong squats.”
“I do not claim Lord Wyman does the deeds himself. He brought three hundred men with him. A hundred knights. Any of them might have—”
“Night work is not knight’s work,” Lady Dustin said. “And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates ... they all had men with the Young Wolf.”
“House Ryswell too,” said Roger Ryswell. “Even Dustins out of Barrowton.” Lady Dustin parted her lips in a thin, feral smile. “The north remembers, Frey.”
Aenys Frey’s mouth quivered with outrage. “Stark dishonored us. That is what you northmen had best remember.”
Roose Bolton rubbed at his chapped lips. “This squabbling will not serve.” He flicked his fingers at Theon. “You are free to go. Take care where you wander. Else it might be you we find upon the morrow, smiling a red smile.”
“As you say, m’lord.” Theon drew his gloves on over his maimed hands and took his leave, limping on his maimed foot.

We shall note first who is present: Roose Bolton, Barbrey Dustin, Roger Ryswell, Aenys Frey. This is Roose's inner circle. Manderly, Hother Umber are not invited. The most noticeable absence is Ramsay's. But it is not surprising. Ramsay was a pariah in Barrowton.

“It should have been you who threw the feast, to welcome me back,” Ramsay complained, “and it should have been in Barrow Hall, not this pisspot of a castle.”
“Barrow Hall and its kitchens are not mine to dispose of,” his father said mildly. “I am only a guest there. The castle and the town belong to Lady Dustin, and she cannot abide you.”

Roose held a war council while Ramsay was occupied by his wedding night.

“The hall is not the place for such discussions, my lords. Let us adjourn to the solar whilst my son consummates his marriage. The rest of you, remain and enjoy the food and drink.”

This very day, Ramsay has disobeyed his father by divulging Yellow Dick's death.

“Burn the body,” Roose Bolton ordered, “and see that you do not speak of this. I’ll not have this tale spread.”
The tale spread nonetheless. By midday most of Winterfell had heard, many from the lips of Ramsay Bolton, whose “boy” Yellow Dick had been.

A few remarks. Aenys Frey stood near the fire, pinched cheeks flushed with cold. He seems to come from outside. We are told they the Freys sang in the Great Hall just before the hooded man entered. However, there is an indoor passage reserved to the lord between the Great Keep and the Great Hall. It might simply mean that Aenys was not allowed to take the passage. In any case he did not remain continuously with Roose and Barbrey.

Since Roger Ryswell wears his cloak, he possibly came from outside as well.

Barbrey Dustin is pale-faced and severe. Her mood has changed since the previous scene in the Great Hall just before Theon came across the hooded man.

Lord Bolton commanded Abel to play for them as they ate. The bard sang “Iron Lances,” then “The Winter Maid.” When Barbrey Dustin asked for something more cheerful, he gave them “The Queen Took Off Her Sandal, the King Took Off His Crown,” and “The Bear and the Maiden Fair.” The Freys joined the singing, and even a few northmen slammed their fists on the table to the chorus, bellowing, “A bear! A bear!” But the noise frightened the horses, so the singers soon let off and the music died away.

This is confirmed by the conversation. Her body language, she sat with [Roose], suggests sympathy and solidarity towards Lord Bolton.

Let's turn to the conversation.

Roger Ryswell mentions the Lord Wyman's lengthy visits to the privy, which suggests, in view of what happened in White Harbor, that Manderly has used the pretext to meet someone secretly.

The command addressed to Theon to show his hands is very interesting and seems to echo the meeting with the hooded man. I tend to believe that Theon showed his hand, not because the man was special to him, but because he felt he had to defend himself after the man has put the hand on the dagger and threatened him. The man has seen the hand and heard that Ramsay has crippled Theon.

It is widely known that Theon has been skinned here and there by Ramsay. But the mutilation is not common knowledge. And Theon hides his missing parts, out of shame. It's likely that Barbrey is aware of Theon's state, since she had him dressed for the wedding and had hosted him in Barrowton. But Aenys Frey might not be aware of the extent of Theon's plight. Both Barbrey and Aenys ask to see Theon's hands. It's as if they had discussed the matter just before Theon's arrival, following, we can guess, a mention by the hooded man, either in Aenys' presence or repeated to Aenys.

Another detail might allude to a conversation with the man. When Theon says he was once a ward in Winterfell, Roose corrects him: he was a hostage. It's what Roose could have objected, or simply thought, if someone had stated in his presence that Theon is a kinslayer. (For Roose, of course, kinslaying is defined by blood relations, but he could have understood another meaning in someone else.)

The most interesting aspect of the scene is the behavior of Barbrey Dustin, supported apparently by Roger Ryswell. First she insists heavily on Ramsay's cruelty, uses the dreaded word bastard, in the presence of Roose. But we already knew that she hated Ramsay, and she called Ramsay a bastard in a private conversation with Roose in Barrowton. That shows that Ramsay is not respected in the circle around Roose. Whether Barbrey's dislike for Ramsay is currently reaching new heights is unclear. At any rate, Roose does not object to have Ramsay treated with disrespect in presence of a third party.

We come to the most important issue. Barbrey suddenly raised the issue of the Red Wedding, in Roose's presence. But she put all the blame on the Freys. Previously, Barbrey had mentioned that Walda could become Roose's queen.

“Truth be told,” she said, “Lord Bolton aspires to more than mere lordship. Why not King of the North? Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. The Lannisters are a spent force, and you were kind enough to rid him of the Starks. Old Walder Frey will not object to his fat little Walda becoming a queen. White Harbor might prove troublesome should Lord Wyman survive this coming battle ... but I am quite sure that he will not. No more than Stannis. Roose will remove both of them, as he removed the Young Wolf. Who else is there?”

She says plainly that Roose Bolton is responsible for Robb Stark's demise. So her attitude has changed. Roose said in Barrowton that Barbrey would remain loyal to him if a Stark boy were to resurface.

Roose made a face, as if the ale he was sipping had suddenly gone sour. “There are times you make me wonder if you truly are my seed. My forebears were many things, but never fools. No, be quiet now, I have heard enough. We appear strong for the moment, yes. We have powerful friends in the Lannisters and Freys, and the grudging support of much of the north ... but what do you imagine is going to happen when one of Ned Stark’s sons turns up?”
[...]
“Stark’s little wolflings are dead,” said Ramsay, sloshing some more ale into his cup, “and they’ll stay dead. Let them show their ugly faces, and my girls will rip those wolves of theirs to pieces. The sooner they turn up, the sooner I kill them again.”
The elder Bolton sighed. “Again? Surely you misspeak. You never slew Lord Eddard’s sons, those two sweet boys we loved so well. That was Theon Turncloak’s work, remember? How many of our grudging friends do you imagine we’d retain if the truth were known? Only Lady Barbrey, whom you would turn into a pair of boots ... inferior boots. Human skin is not as tough as cowhide and will not wear as well. By the king’s decree you are now a Bolton. Try and act like one. Tales are told of you, Ramsay. I hear them everywhere. People fear you.”

Roose didn't say anything about Barbrey's reaction if she were to know all the truth about the Red Wedding (recall that Roose had taken the precaution to spare at least some men from Barrowton and the Rills before the wedding). The hostility of Barbrey, and to some extent of Roger Ryswell, towards the Freys can be contrasted with their pacific and conciliatory attitude two days before, as the Manderlys and Freys were on the brink of armed hostility.

“Step out into the yard, you sack of suet, and I’ll serve you all the bloody bits that you can stomach,” Ser Hosteen said.
Wyman Manderly laughed, but half a dozen of his knights were on their feet at once. It fell to Roger Ryswell and Barbrey Dustin to calm them with quiet words.

I have discussed already the severe mistrust between Ramsay and the Freys. By telling the Freys that they are not welcome in the north and by underlining the cruelty of Ramsay, Barbrey is likely to increase the tension for the inheritance of the Dreadfort.

Roose ends the conversation by attempting to calm the situation, which seems increasingly out of control. Barbrey, the Freys and Ramsay are mutually incompatible allies now. That might contribute to Roose's decision the next day: sending the Freys in the snow to fight Stannis, hoping thus to get rid of two problems at once (and a third problem: Manderly).

It is the last time we see Barbrey Dustin. In particular, she is not present during the last scene in the great hall, where every other character of note is present (except maester Henly, and a few Ryswells). It is likely to be significant, but in what sense?

4. News brought to Winterfell?

Let's return now to the hooded man. I tend to conclude from all this that the man met at least Barbrey and Roose, and brought news calculated to drive a wedge between the Dustin/Ryswells and the Freys.

Judging from the conversation, it might be about the Red Wedding.

The notion that the north could be appeased, and the Red Wedding be forgiven, by sacrificing the Freys has been put forward by Qyburn, Roose's old friend.

“A little spittle on Lord Walder’s tomb is not like to disturb the grave worms,” Qyburn agreed, “but it would also be useful if someone were to be punished for the Red Wedding. A few Frey heads would do much to mollify the north.”

That could explain the decision taken the next day by Roose to send the Frey to battle Stannis.

The responsability of Roose Bolton in the Red Wedding is not well known, it seems. We don't know what Roose's official line is. The Freys maintain that the Young Wolf turned into a real wolf.

The Lord of White Harbor leaned forward. “The Freys are no better. They speak of wargs and skinchangers and assert that it was Robb Stark who slew my Wendel. The arrogance of it! They do not expect the north to believe their lies, not truly, but they think we must pretend to believe or die. Roose Bolton lies about his part in the Red Wedding, and his bastard lies about the fall of Winterfell. And yet so long as they held Wylis I had no choice but to eat all this excrement and praise the taste.”

The Freys bear most of the blame for the violation of guest's rights. However, Wyman Manderly is certain of Roose's responsability, as we just saw.

It is certainly known that thousands of northmen were betrayed and murdered at the Twins. Barbrey Dustin said she had spies within Robb's army.

Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell. So I had my own eyes and ears in that host. They kept me well informed.

We never learned who was Barbrey's spy. It might be Ronnel Stout, apparently a kinsman of Lord Harwood Stout. We never heard news of Ronnel's return to the north, not even when Theon was in Barrowton. In any case, Ronnel Stout did not witness the sending of Ned Stark's bones to Winterfell, since he was with Roose's host at the time, as were all the Barrowton men we heard about.

The hooded man could have reported that the prisoners at the Twins, including the Greatjon, have been sent to the King.

“If you will pardon me for intruding on your grief,” he said, in a dry tone, “we have other matters to consider. When you return to the Twins, please inform Lord Walder that King Tommen requires all the captives you took at the Red Wedding.”
Ser Walder frowned. “These prisoners are valuable, ser.”
“His Grace would not ask for them if they were worthless.”
Frey and Rivers exchanged a look. Edwyn said, “My lord grandfather will expect recompense for these prisoners.”

The news of the transfer of the hostages is widely known in the Riverlands.

That same afternoon, the lords of the Trident came to Jaime asking his leave to return to their own lands. He granted it. Lord Piper also wanted to know about his son Marq. “All the captives will be ransomed,” Jaime promised.

If the Greatjon is not prisoner at the Twins anymore, both Mors and (especially) Hother have free reign to accomplish vengeance on the Boltons and the Freys, with the caveat that a being a captive of the Crown might not make that much difference ultimately. That fits well with the arrival of Mors under Winterfell's walls simultaneously with the hooded man.

Of course, it is in Barbrey and Roose's interest to keep the news hidden as long as possible, if only to keep Hother Umber loyal to their cause, and distance themselves from the Freys.

The chronology would seem to allow the news to travel. (Jaime freed Wylis Manderly in Harrenhal, then traveled to Darry and then to Riverun, a relatively short journey compared to Wylis Manderly. After Wylis reached White Harbor, at least three months elapsed before the arrival of the hooded man in Winterfell.) A travel by land is less likely, but can't be rule out. However, traveling to Winterfell is difficult given the current weather conditions.

More likely a raven could have reached Mors Umber, who is primarily concerned by the captivity of his nephew and liege lord.

Someone from the south would have brought the news to Mors, it could be a member of the Brotherhood without Banner, since the Brotherhood had spies in Riverun (Tom o' Sevens) and possible friends among the riverlords that could send the raven.

Or Lord Piper, who seems to hate the Freys passionately, could have sent a raven to the Last Hearth (assuming riverlords have birds in their rookery for such a remote destination). Indeed the Pipers have fought with the Umbers under the Stark banner, and they have been betrayed at the Red Wedding. Both families still have hostages at the Twins.

The feelings of Clemence Piper towards the Freys is encapsuled in the following passage, a war council held by Jaime Lannister.

Edwyn bristled. “If my lord of Piper means to imply—”
“I don’t imply, Frey. I say what I mean straight out, like an honest man. But what would you know of the ways of honest men? You’re a treacherous lying weasel, like all your kin. I’d sooner drink a pint of piss than take the word of any Frey.” He leaned across the table. “Where is Marq, answer me that? What have you done with my son? He was a guest at your bloody wedding.”
“And our honored guest he shall remain,” said Edwyn, “until you prove your loyalty to His Grace, King Tommen.”
“Five knights and twenty men-at-arms went with Marq to the Twins,” said Piper. “Are they your guests as well, Frey?”
“Some of the knights, perhaps. The others were served no more than they deserved. You’d do well to guard your traitor’s tongue, Piper, unless you want your heir returned in pieces.”
My father’s councils never went like this, Jaime thought, as Piper came lurching to his feet. “Say that with a sword in your hand, Frey,” the small man snarled. “Or do you only fight with smears of shit?”
Frey’s pinched face went pale. Beside him Walder Rivers rose. “Edwyn is no man of the sword... but I am, Piper. If you have more remarks to make, come outside and make them.”
“This is a war council, not a war,” Jaime reminded them. “Sit down, the both of you.” Neither man moved. “Now!”
Walder Rivers seated himself. Lord Piper was not so easy to cow. He muttered a curse and strode from the tent.

We already saw that Jaime informed Lord Piper of the royal order to transfer the hostages away from the Twins. Would Piper conceive the idea of informing the Umbers of the transfer?

But Barbrey Dustin mentions explicitly the Greatjon during the conversation: If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. If indeed the Greatjon is no more at the Twins, then Barbrey is hiding the news from the Freys. So Aenys Frey didn't hear anything of the hooded man's announcement. The captivity of Greatjon is one of the Freys' major assets in Winterfell, and gives them much of their political weight. But I don't see why Barbrey would threaten the Freys and deceive them at the same time. So, I tend to believe Barbrey is sincere and news about the Greatjon have not reached Winterfell yet.

What else could the hooded man have reported?

There is the possibility of the news of Robb's will, which seems to have named Jon Snow as heir to the crown of the north. In all likehood, the Freys have the document, since they got hold of the crown. But Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover were witnesses to the decree. They might have reappeared in the meantime and have contacted Robett Glover.

If the news of the will reached Roose Bolton, and later Ramsay, that might change the political situation. The legitimacy of Ramsay over Winterfell is threatened (which could explain the personal tone of the letter sent to the Wall). There is a possibillity that the northern houses that witness the will would rally around Jon Snow. The Freys could play a role in this, since it is likely that they have the document. Could Barbrey Dustin's use of the term bastard (refering to Ramsay), disparraging thus implicitly all bastards, be an indirect reference to Jon? Except for this detail, I find no trace of the reappearance of the will in the conversation in the solar.

An intriguing possibility would be the news of the survival of the Stark children, which would be embarrassing for Roose just before the battle, and would leave Ramsay useless for his father. The survival was known to Manderly and Robett Glover. But there isn't much in the conversation in the solar that would let us believe that such news reached Roose. If it were the case, we could suppose Theon would be questioned – unless Roose considers Theon to be so much Ramsay's creature that questioning would be useless. However, Ramsay had told Roose that the Stark boys have escaped, so Roose would have little to learn from Theon, and nothing new since Roose has had Theon at his disposal for months. The hooded man could have come with the news that Bran and Rickon hid in the crypts, with a potential proof: the disappearance of the swords. ("Go and see the tombs with your own eyes if you don't believe me".) Or course that would make Barbrey blemish, hence her pale face, since she had seen the disappearance of the swords.

The announce of the survival of Bran and Rickon had been considered by Manderly.

“Roose Bolton has Lord Eddard’s daughter. To thwart him White Harbor must have Ned’s son ... and the direwolf. The wolf will prove the boy is who we say he is, should the Dreadfort attempt to deny him. That is my price, Lord Davos. Smuggle me back my liege lord, and I will take Stannis Baratheon as my king.”

And by Roose and Ramsay.

“There are times you make me wonder if you truly are my seed. My fore-bears were many things, but never fools. No, be quiet now, I have heard enough. We appear strong for the moment, yes. We have powerful friends in the Lannisters and Freys, and the grudging support of much of the north ... but what do you imagine is going to happen when one of Ned Stark’s sons turns up?”
Ned Stark’s sons are all dead, Reek thought. Robb was murdered at the Twins, and Bran and Rickon ... we dipped the heads in tar ... His own head was pounding. He did not want to think about anything that had happened before he knew his name. There were things too hurtful to remember, thoughts almost as painful as Ramsay’s flaying knife ...
“Stark’s little wolflings are dead,” said Ramsay, sloshing some more ale into his cup, “and they’ll stay dead. Let them show their ugly faces, and my girls will rip those wolves of theirs to pieces. The sooner they turn up, the sooner I kill them again.”
The elder Bolton sighed. “Again? Surely you misspeak. You never slew Lord Eddard’s sons, those two sweet boys we loved so well. That was Theon Turncloak’s work, remember? How many of our grudging friends do you imagine we’d retain if the truth were known? Only Lady Barbrey, whom you would turn into a pair of boots ... inferior boots. Human skin is not as tough as cowhide and will not wear as well. By the king’s decree you are now a Bolton. Try and act like one. Tales are told of you, Ramsay. I hear them everywhere. People fear you.”

That would suppose that the conspirators outside of Winterfell knew about the disappearance of the swords. It doesn't seem that Wex could have told Glover. But Osha left Winterfell with Ned Stark's sword, which bears the mark of Mikken.

Osha carried her long oaken spear in one hand and the torch in the other. A naked sword hung down her back, one of the last to bear Mikken’s mark. He had forged it for Lord Eddard’s tomb, to keep his ghost at rest.

As it happens, Mikken is mentioned by Crowfood when "Arya" is questioned after the escape. Recall that, according to this analysis, Crowfood and the hooded man were in contact before the man entered the castle. Crowfood even goes out of his way to praise Mikken's steel.

Crowfood had fingered his beard. "Dead now, I suppose. That smith of yours as well. A man who knew his steel. What was his name?"
Jeyne had hesitated. Mikken, Theon thought. His name was Mikken. The castle blacksmith had never made any lemoncakes for Sansa, which made him far less important than the castle cook in the sweet little world she had shared with her friend Jeyne Poole. Remember, damn you. Your father was the steward, he had charge of the whole household. The smith's name was Mikken, Mikken, Mikken. I had him put to death before me!
"Mikken," Jeyne said. 
Mors Umber had grunted. "Aye."

An hint to keep in mind at any rate, especially since the other man mentioned by Crowfood, Gage, had been Osha's lover when Theon took Winterfell. Moreover, Crowfood could have named any member of the Stark household that left for King's Landing but he named Mikken and Gage, who are closely related to Osha. (Crowfood last visited Winterfell for the Harvest Feast, when that part of the household had already left, which might have influence his choice in the remaining members.) Of course, Osha herself has never seen Arya.

So has Mors Umber recovered Osha, and perhaps Rickon? The timeline doesn't preclude it, since Davos has left White Harbor at least four months ago. Did the hooded man announce the presence of Rickon?

However, the reappearance of the Stark children has no bearing with the Freys, and would not explain Barbrey Dustin's sudden hostility, unless Barbrey wants to deflect the attention of the northmen on the Freys. Since some funny business happened around the crypts during the last few days in Winterfell: Abel seems to have paid a visit there and Little Walder's body has been found near the entrance.

Did Little Walder lead Ramsay to the crypts to inspect the missing swords?

5. The Escape

One wonder what the hooded man did in Winterfell beside delivering a message to Barbrey Dustin and Roose Bolton. After getting in the Great Hall the hooded man probably went to see Lord Bolton. But then? He might have communicated with Abel and Manderly during the meeting in the solar, supposing Roose left him free reign, which is not particularly likely.

If the hooded man came to coordinate the escape, there could have been an agreement between Abel and Mors that the arrival of the hooded man would signal the presence of Mors Umber outside the castle. That way no message from the hooded man to anyone was necessary, only his presence. However, to coordinate the escape, Abel, Rowan and co needed to send a message outside, simply to warn that the plan of escape would include Theon. They didn't know until a few days before that they would use Theon to exfiltrate "Arya". But the hooded man did more than appear before Abel, since he appears responsible of the circulation of the word kinslayer from Crowfood to Rowan.

There might be a need to exfiltrate Theon from the point of view of the northmen. Indeed Robett Glover's children are prisoner at Harlaw, and Lord Harlaw hosts his sister, Theon's mother. Hence, Theon could prove precious for an hostage exchange – that might even save him during the battle with Stannis. That makes another argument for Robett Glover's involvement in the escape.

We have examined already the possibilities for Abel and the washerwomen to send a message outside: music, snowmen, a Ryswell defector, Squirrel or Abel scaling the Wall.

We saw that the sounding of drums below the Hunter's Gate was synchronized with the sounding of the horn heard at the hour of the wolf.

So the logic of the coordination could have been the following. The hooded man shows up in the Great Hall, which warns Abel and co that Mors is ready outside. Note that Abel was in the Great Hall at the arrival of the hooded man. Then a message is sent back (Squirrel scaling the Wall during the night would be a reasonable explanation), warning that the escape would happen as soon as armies (perhaps specifically the Freys) depart the castle.

What could have happened to the hooded man after going to the Great Hall? It seems clear that if his visit had any importance it remained discreet. If he asked for a private meeting with Roose, it is likely that whatever conversation took place happened in Roose's solar.

(Bran II, ASoS)

(Brienne VIII, AFfC)

(Reek I, ADwD)

(Reek II, ADwD)

(Davos III, ADwD)

(Reek III, ADwD)

(Reek III, ADwD)

(The Prince of Winterfell, ADwD)

(A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD)

(A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD)

(Reek III, ADwD)

(The Prince of Winterfell, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(The Turncloak, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)

(Theon, ADwD)