The Winterfell Huis Clos

SEVEN DAYS OF BATTLE




Predicting the future course of events is not always a foolish task in fiction. But my beliefs regarding future events in GRRM's world are summarized by one word: agnosticism. An excerpt from an interview of the author follows.
So you always want to frustrate our expectations, am I right?
Yes, it was always my intention: to play with the reader’s expectations. Before I was a writer I was a voracious reader and I am still, and I have read many, many books with very predictable plots. As a reader, what I seek is a book that delights and surprises me. I want to not know what is gonna happen. For me, that’s the essence of storytelling and for this reason I want my readers to turn the pages with increasing fever: to know what happens next. There are a lot of expectations, mainly in the fantasy genre, which you have the hero and he is the chosen one, and he is always protected by his destiny. I didn’t want it for my books.

Thus GRRM is careful to avoid linear continuations of storylines. When a character explains his plan, it follows from this rule that the forthcoming story will be about the failure of the plan. There is a certain tension between such a storytelling method and another rule seemingly followed by GRRM: make the story feel coherent by preparing carefully in advance the dramatic turns. So vague suggestions are implanted into the mind of the reader, but without letting said reader rationalize any definite prediction. Hence the author escapes any accusation of invoking the deus ex machina, and makes the reader feel fairly treated a posteriori.

What GRRM calls the "battle of ice" (that is the battle between Stannis, Roose etc for the control of the north) is about to take place. If my task here were to determine its outcome in advance, I would feel discouraged by the overwhelming number of parameters.

Physicists are still mystified by the impossibility of predicting the future as well as we can determine the past, since the world is ruled at the microscopic level by time-reversible laws (an explanation). However the asymmetry is an irrefutable fact of the human subjective experience – and readers are human. For all the time we have spent trying to understand the guests and events at the Huis Clos, we have no idea of what will follow.

I am willing to depart from my agnosticism about the battle of ice. But only to some extent. The battle is part of the future from the point of view of the last events we witnessed in the Winterfell area. But it is also part of the past, since the letter sent to the Wall postdates the battle, and consists largely in the announcement of the outcome of the battle. So I can hope to not be completely foolish by attempting to put forward my guesses.

The letter itself will be the subject of our last discussion. For the the moment, we assume the content of the letter to be true. Otherwise, all speculations about the battle are groundless. We will start by reviewing what we know about the battle, and try to give a rational assessment.

As we will see the outcome claimed in the letter is well in line with what we can guess from the first chapter of TWoW published online.


Contents
  1. Leaving the Castle
  2. Remaining in the Castle
  3. Stannis
  4. The Clans
  5. Mance and the Clans
  6. The Karstarks
  7. More Northmen
  8. The Sacrifices at the Crofter's Village
  9. Asha Greyjoy
  10. Alysane Mormont
  11. Tycho Nestoris
  12. The Conspirators
  13. The Outlook of the Battle
  14. The Letter

1. Leaving the Castle

The departure of the Freys and Manderlys from Winterfell is due to the unbearability of the situation there. Theon gives us a concise and, I believe, accurate account of Roose's thinking given the circumstances.
Do that, Theon thought. Ride out into the snow and die. Leave Winterfell to me and the ghosts. Roose Bolton would welcome such a fight, he sensed. He needs an end to this. The castle was too crowded to withstand a long siege, and too many of the lords here were of uncertain loyalty. Fat Wyman Manderly, Whoresbane Umber, the men of House Hornwood and House Tallhart, the Lockes and Flints and Ryswells, all of them were northmen, sworn to House Stark for generations beyond count. It was the girl who held them here, Lord Eddard’s blood, but the girl was just a mummer’s ploy, a lamb in a direwolf’s skin. So why not send the north-men forth to battle Stannis before the farce unraveled? Slaughter in the snow. And every man who falls is one less foe for the Dreadfort.
(A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD)
Hence after the fight in the Great Hall, Roose takes a decision.
“I see you all want blood,” the Lord of the Dreadfort said. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird’s black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship’s hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. “Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis.” Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. “His host lies not three days’ ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well.”
(Theon, ADwD)

So the departure of the Freys and Manderlys from the castle is rushed, and apparently the result of the tactics of Abel and the washerwomen. Theon repeats the analysis to Stannis.
"The castle was too crowded. Men were at each other's throats, the Manderlys and Freys especially. It's them his lordship's sent after you, the ones that he's well rid of."
(Theon, TWoW)

Most of the fighting men inside the castle are sworn to the Dreadfort (two to four thousand men) or to the Twins (two thousand men, including five hundred men on horse). Manderly has three hundred men, Whoresbane four hundred. The Dustin/Ryswell contingent is probably considerable, but no numbers are given in the text. Indeed they lost few men in the recent wars, and Barrowton is an important seat in the north. The Cerwyns, Tallharts, Hornwoods have suffered from both the War of the Five Kings and the Sack of Winterfell.

Theon sees the troops leaving the castle as he goes from the kitchen to the Great Keep with the washerwomen.
The passages were clogged with troops: armored knights in woolen surcoats and fur cloaks, men-at-arms with spears across their shoulders, archers carrying unstrung bows and sheaves of arrows, freeriders, grooms leading warhorses. The Frey men wore the badge of the two towers, those from White Harbor displayed merman and trident. They shouldered through the storm in opposite directions and eyed each other warily as they passed, but no swords were drawn. Not here. It may be different out there in the woods.
(Theon, ADwD)
So Freys and Manderlys might settle their differences before they meet Stannis.


2. Remaining in the Castle

The Bolton troops in the castle are mainly veterans from the war of the five kings, and men Ramsay has brought from the Dreadfort, probably veterans from the Sack of Winterfell.

We see them all in Moat Cailin.
Behind him were the camps, crowded with Dreadfort men and those the Ryswells had brought from the Rills, with the Barrowton host between them. South of Moat Cailin, another army was coming up the causeway, an army of Boltons and Freys marching beneath the banners of the Dreadfort.
(Reek II, ADwD)

We are given no numbers for the the men in the camps. We saw the Bolton men coming back from the south in Moat Cailin, remains of the decimation of the Young Wolf's host.
The northmen followed hard behind the van, their tattered banners streaming in the wind. Reek watched them pass. Most were afoot, and there were so few of them. He remembered the great host that marched south with Young Wolf, beneath the direwolf of Winterfell. Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter, but only two in ten were coming back, and most of those were Dreadfort men.
(Reek II, ADwD)

That makes two to four thousand Dreadfort men with Roose. They came back victorious from the south. Ramsay sacked Winterfell with the Dreadfort garrison, six hundred men. Stannis asked Theon about Roose's forces.
"How many men does Bolton have at Winterfell?"
"Five thousand. Six. More." He gave the king a ghastly grin, all shattered teeth and splinters. "More than you."
(Theon, TWoW)
Of course, we don't know if that number includes the Freys, and the other northmen.

In Winterfell, the morale seemed good.
“The gods of the north have unleashed their wroth on Lord Stannis,” Roose Bolton announced come morning as men gathered in Winterfell’s Great Hall to break their fast. “He is a stranger here, and the old gods will not suffer him to live.”
His men roared their approval, banging their fists on the long plank tables.
(The Turncloak, ADwD)

So there seems no reason for Roose to doubt the loyalty of his men, despite that they are unhappy over the meals.

The men from the Rills and from Barrowton do not seem eager to leave the castle.
“How long must we sit here waiting for this king who never comes?” Ser Hosteen Frey demanded. “We should take the fight to Stannis and make an end to him.”
“Leave the castle?” croaked one-armed Harwood Stout. His tone suggested he would sooner have his remaining arm hacked off. “Would you have us charge blindly into the snow?”
“To fight Lord Stannis we would first need to find him,” Roose Ryswell pointed out. “Our scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate, but of late, none of them return.”
(A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD)

Theon came to Stannis with an opinion on who will leave the castle, after the Manderlys and the Freys.
"Lord Ramsay," Theon hissed.  "The son, not the father.  You must not let him take him.  Roose... Roose is safe within the walls of Winterfell with his fat new wife.  Ramsay is coming."
(Theon, TWoW)
As far as we know, Roose only ordered the Freys and Manderlys to deliver battle to Stannis.
“I see you all want blood,” the Lord of the Dreadfort said. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird’s black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship’s hand, a parchment. That will be wet as well. Dark wings, dark words. “Rather than use our swords upon each other, you might try them on Lord Stannis.” Lord Bolton unrolled the parchment. “His host lies not three days’ ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure. Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well.”
(Theon, ADwD)
It is a mystery why Roose does not seem disturbed by the horns and the drums heard during the night.

So Theon was convinced that Ramsay is coming behind the Freys and the Manderlys. We are left to suppose that Ramsay's host has been glimpsed leaving the castle, or that Theon was just making a guess. Stannis asked him for specific numbers.
"How many of those is he like to send against us?"
"No more than half." That was a guess, admittedly, but it felt right to him. Roose Bolton was not a man to blunder blindly out into the snow, map or no. He would hold his main strength in reserve, keep his best men with him, trust in Winterfell's massive double wall.
(Theon, TWoW)
I wonder how Theon could be so certain that Ramsay is coming.


3. Stannis

We will not discuss in detail the life of Stannis Baratheon, only the preparation for the battle of Winterfell. Let's recall briefly Stannis' situation in the north.

Stannis Baratheon considers the kingship of the Seven Kingdoms to be his duty, as the rightful heir of Robert. The defense of the realm at the Wall is part of this duty. Stannis hopes that he will thus be recognized as the rightful sovereign among the northmen. Stannis and Melisandre have understood certain things that Jon Snow has not realized, notably about the true nature of Val, and perhaps of Mance. Nevertheless, Jon Snow has outlined the strategy that Stannis has been following: free Deepwood Motte from the ironmen and gain thus the support from that part of the north, rally the quarelling northmen under his banner to defeat Roose Bolton fall. As we will see, the approach has its limits, mainly because Stannis has too few resources: few men, no gold, no support in the south, the sulfurous reputation of the red god. His determination, that he is not a Lannister and his integrity (real or overrated) can help him. But Melisandre, Davos and Jon Snow are his only valuable advisors, and none of them is with him on the road to Winterfell.

The situation is so tense in Winterfell that Stannis could win half of the battle simply by waiting for his enemies to sort out their differences. But let's examine Stannis' military situation.

Stannis' army was comprised of fifteen hundred men at the Wall.
Too few, Davos knew. Stannis had come north with no more than fifteen hundred men ... but if he told them that, his mission here was doomed.
(Davos III, ADwD)

How many remained after the battle at the Wall and the journey to Deepwood Motte? Here is Stannis at Deepwood Motte.
And we had other help, unexpected but most welcome, from a daughter of Bear Island. Alysane Mormont, whose men name her the She-Bear, hid fighters inside a gaggle of fishing sloops and took the ironmen unawares where they lay off the strand. Greyjoy's longships are burned or taken, her crews slain or surrendered. The captains, knights, notable warriors, and others of high birth we shall ransom or make other use of, the rest I mean to hang ...

... more northmen coming in as word spreads of our victory. Fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen, survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell, men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day.
(Jon VII, ADwD)

Most interesting are the survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell. Those men knew what happened at Winterfell: that the Boltons betrayed the north. And Stannis does not seem to know that Ramsay led the battle:
"Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."
Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens.  I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"
(Theon, TWoW)
Neither Manderly, nor Robett Glover has said anything to Stannis about Ramsay.

More worrying even. Here is Arnolf Karstark joining Stannis:
Bent and twisted, the castellan of Karhold leaned heavily on his cane as he made his way to the table.  Lord Arnolf's cloak was fine grey wool, bordered in black sable and clasped with a silver starburst.  A rich garment, Theon thought, on a poor excuse for a man.  He had seen that cloak before, he knew, just as he had seen the man who wore it.  At the Dreadfort.  I remember.  He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell.
(Theon, TWoW)

Whoresbane has not told Stannis about the Karstark betrayal. Of course, he knew since he met Arnolf Karstark at the Dreadfort. Stannis has been warned by Jon Snow, via Tycho Nestoris.
The king plucked a parchment off the table and squinted over it.  A letter, Theon knew.  Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny.  I know what that says, he thought, giggling.
(Theon, TWoW)

Even Mors Umber, supposed to have offered his fealty, has not informed Stannis neither of his strength nor of his presence in Winterfell.
"As you will. Tell me, Theon, how many men did Mors Umber have with him at Winterfell?"
"None. No men." He grinned at his own wit. "He had boys. I saw them." Aside from a handful of half-crippled serjeants, the warriors that Crowfood had brought down from Last Hearth were hardly old enough to shave. "Their spears and axes were older than the hands that clutched them. It was Whoresbane Umber who had the men, inside the castle. I saw them too. Old men, every one." Theon tittered. "Mors took the green boys and Hother took the greybeards. All the real men went with the Greatjon and died at the Red Wedding. Is that what you wanted to know, Your Grace?"
King Stannis ignored the jibe. "Boys," was all he said, disgusted. "Boys will not hold Lord Bolton long."
(Theon, TWoW)
Let's look at the long march through the Wolfswood. It lasted fifty three days until the arrival of Theon.
On the twenty-sixth day of the fifteen-day march, the last of the vegetables was consumed. On the thirty-second day, the last of the grain and fodder. Asha wondered how long a man could live on raw, half-frozen horse meat.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
After thirty-four days, Stannis stopped in the crofter's village.
Somewhere ahead Roose Bolton awaited them behind the walls of Winterfell, but Stannis Baratheon's host sat snowbound and unmoving, walled in by ice and snow, starving.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
After nineteen days at the village.
And there was no food, beyond their failing horses, fish taken from the lakes (fewer every day), and whatever meagre sustenance their foragers could find in these cold, dead woods. With the king's knights and lords claiming the lion's share of the horsemeat, little and less remained for the common men. Small wonder then that they had started eating their own dead.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
There is an account of the casualties.
Justin Massey looked up from his horsemeat. “The cold count last night reached eighty.”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
Massey adds that the horses are decimated.
“Nor I. But you had best choke down some horsemeat all the same, or you may soon wish you had. We had eight hundred horses when we marched from Deepwood Motte. Last night the count was sixty-four.”
That did not shock her. Almost all of their big destriers had failed, including Massey's own. Most of their palfreys were gone as well. Even the garrons of the northmen were faltering for want of fodder.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
So Stannis has lost his cavalry.

One wonders what was Stannis' strategy to take Winterfell. He surely had one.
“If we march, we will die by the hundreds.”
“We will die by the thousands if we stay here,” said Ser Humfrey Clifton. “Press on or die, I say.”
“Press on and die, I answer. And if we reach Winterfell, what then? How do we take it? Half our men are so weak they can scarce put one foot before another. Will you set them to scaling walls? Building siege towers?”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

Tension are mounting between the Queen's men and the northmen, led by the mountain clans, chiefly Big Bucket and the Flint half-brothers.
“Even in this place of fear and darkness, the Lord of Light protects us,” Ser Godry Farring told the men who gathered to watch as the stakes were hammered down into the holes.
“What has your southron god to do with snow?” demanded Artos Flint. His black beard was crusted with ice. “This is the wroth of the old gods come upon us. It is them we should appease.”
“Aye,” said Big Bucket Wull. “Red Rahloo means nothing here. You will only make the old gods angry. They are watching from their island.”
The crofter's village stood between two lakes, the larger dotted with small wooded islands that punched up through the ice like the frozen fists of some drowned giant. From one such island rose a weirwood gnarled and ancient, its bole and branches white as the surrounding snows. Eight days ago Asha had walked out with Aly Mormont to have a closer look at its slitted red eyes and bloody mouth. It is only sap, she'd told herself, the red sap that flows inside these weirwoods. But her eyes were unconvinced; seeing was believing, and what they saw was frozen blood.
“You northmen brought these snows upon us,” insisted Corliss Penny. “You and your demon trees. R'hllor will save us.”
“R'hllor will doom us,” said Artos Flint.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
The Karstark forces are not negligible, but of small help for Stannis.
Behind them, struggling to keep pace, Arnolf Karstark came hobbling, leaning on his blackthorn cane. Lord Arnolf had found them eight days past. The northman had brought a son, three grandsons, four hundred spears, two score archers, a dozen mounted lances, a maester, and a cage of ravens ... but only enough provisions to sustain his own.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
Eventually Stannis can hope to have those men on his side, after the betrayal has been discovered.
"Your Grace, the Karstarks are taken. A few of them resisted, and died for it. Most were too confused, and yielded quietly. We have herded them all into the longhall and confined them there."
"Well done."
"They say they did not know. The ones we've questioned."
"They would."
"We might question them more sharply... "
"No. I believe them. Karstark could never have hoped to keep his treachery a secret if he shared his plans with every baseborn manjack in his service. Some drunken spearman would have let it slip one night whilst laying with a whore. They did not need to know. They are Karhold men. When the moment came they would have obeyed their lords, as they had done all their lives." 
(Theon, TWoW)
But mistrust is building up in Stannis' army.
"One of Lord Peasebury's men was killed, and two of mine were wounded. If it please Your Grace, though, the men are growing anxious. There are hundreds of them gathered around the tower, wondering what's happened. Talk of treason is on every lip.  No one knows who to trust, or who might be arrested next. The northmen especially... "
"I need to talk with them. Is Wull still waiting?"
"Him and Artos Flint. Will you see them?"
(Theon, TWoW)

The Liddle knows that Bran has survived the Sack of Winterfell, and probably suspect Rickon has survived as well. He is not with Stannis, but his son Morgan is there to lead the clan.
“This march was madness. More dying every day, and for what? Some girl?”
“Ned’s girl,” said Morgan Liddle.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

To summarize, Stannis has a starved and weakened army on foot. The northmen with him are much more numerous and and in much better shape, and they have valid horses. The Karstarks might join him as independent northmen. All those northmen don't get along well with the Queen's men. What power has Stannis left? The King is naked.

But Stannis has a plan.
Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."
"He will."
"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come.  We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."
"The ground?" said Theon. "What ground? Here? This misbegotten tower? This wretched little village? You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses."
(Theon, TWoW)
Theon says three armies have left Winterfell.
 "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."
(Theon, TWoW)
The Freys have lost their best commander.
The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"
"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now."
(Theon, TWoW)
Is Theon certain that Ramsay has left the castle? Or is it a expression of his fear of Ramsay?


4. The Mountain Clans

When Stannis left Deepwood Motte, Stannis gave an account of his forces to Jon Snow.

... more northmen coming in as word spreads of our victory. Fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen, survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell, men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day.
(Jon VII, ADwD)

Since Stannis had fifteen hundred men with him when he went to the Wall, and certainly less when he reache Deepwood Motte. That would leave perhaps as much as four thousand northmen who have joined him. Those northmen do not form a homogeneous army. The clans seems well prepared for a battle in the snow and in the woods.
Whilst the southron knights and lordlings struggled, the men of the northern hills fared better. Their garrons were sure-footed beasts that ate less than palfreys, and much less than the big destriers, and the men who rode them were at home in the snow. Many of the wolves donned curious footwear. Bear-paws, they called them, queer elongated things made with bent wood and leather strips. Lashed onto the bottoms of their boots, the things somehow allowed them to walk on top of the snow without breaking through the crust and sinking down to their thighs.
Some had bear-paws for their horses too, and the shaggy little garrons wore them as easily as other mounts wore iron horseshoes ...
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
We see the clansmen leaving Deepwood Motte.
Before them marched the clansmen from the hills; chiefs and champions astride shaggy garrons, their hirsute fighters trotting beside them, clad in furs and boiled leather and old mail. Some painted their faces brown and green and tied bundles of brush about them, to hide amongst the trees.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

The clansmen have used the camouflage tactic successfully in their conquest of Deepwood Motte.
Both were clad in boiled leather and mottled cloaks of brown and green and black, with branches, leaves, and brush sewn about their heads and shoulders.
“Who are you?” Asha asked the wounded man. “A Flint. Who are you?”
(The Wayward Bride, ADwD)

So it seems the clansmen have a tactical advantage over all men from the south, and perhaps over other northmen as well. Let's turn to their motives.

We have been told that the northern clans are quarrelsome.
Galbart Glover’s maester had claimed the mountain clans were too quarrelsome to ever band together without a Stark to lead them.
(The Wayward Bride, ADwD)

The mountain clans are: Flint, Wull, Norrey, Liddle, Harclay, Burley, Knotts and a few unnamed ones. Old Flint and the Norrey are at the Wall. We have an idea of the leaders of the clans through the debate at Deepwood Motte.
But the wolves insisted; Roose Bolton could not be suffered to hold Winterfell, and the Ned’s girl must be rescued from the clutches of his bastard. So said Morgan Liddle, Brandon Norrey, Big Bucket Wull, the Flints, even the She-Bear.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

Note the absence of the The Liddle, that Bran and his friends met on the way to the Wall. The Flints are Old Flint's sons: Artos and Black Donnel. All together the mountain clans might amount to the three thousand men promised by Jon Snow.
Stannis rubbed the back of his neck. “You haggle like a crone with a codfish, Lord Snow. Did Ned Stark father you on some fishwife? How many men?”
“Two thousand. Perhaps three.”
(Jon IV, ADwD)

As we saw, the loyalty of the northmen to Stannis is not certain. Their dislike very much the red god and barely suffer the queen's men.
“A little snow?” Peasebury’s soft girlish mouth twisted in fury. “Your ill counsel forced this march upon us, Wull. I am starting to suspect you have been Bolton’s creature all along. Is that the way of it? Did he send you to us to whisper poison in the king’s ear?”
Big Bucket laughed in his face. “Lord Pea Pod. If you were a man, I would kill you for that, but my sword is made of too fine a steel to besmirch with craven’s blood.” He took a drink of ale and wiped his
mouth. “Aye, men are dying. More will die before we see Winterfell. What of it? This is war. Men die in war. That is as it should be. As it has always been.”
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
It's clear that the alliance with Stannis is circumstancial.

As we have seen, the northmen are well prepared to fight in the dire hivernal conditions.

But why are the mountain clans with Stannis?

Jon Snow gave Stannis his strategy.
“The map is not the land, my father often said. Men have lived in the high valleys and mountain meadows for thousands of years, ruled by their clan chiefs. Petty lords, you would call them, though they do not use such titles amongst themselves. Clan champions fight with huge two-handed greatswords, while the common men sling stones and batter one another with staffs of mountain ash. A quarrelsome folk, it must be said. When they are not fighting one another, they tend their herds, fish the Bay of Ice, and breed the hardiest mounts you’ll ever ride.”
“And they will fight for me, you believe?” “If you ask them.”
“Why should I beg for what is owed me?”
“Ask, I said, not beg.” Jon pulled back his hand. “It is no good sending messages. Your Grace will need to go to them yourself. Eat their bread and salt, drink their ale, listen to their pipers, praise the beauty of their daughters and the courage of their sons, and you’ll have their swords. The clans have not seen a king since Torrhen Stark bent his knee. Your coming does them honor. Command them to fight for you, and they will look at one another and say, ‘Who is this man? He is no king of mine.’ ”
“How many clans are you speaking of?”
“Two score, small and large. Flint, Wull, Norrey, Liddle ... win Old Flint and Big Bucket, the rest will follow.”
“Big Bucket?”
“The Wull. He has the biggest belly in the mountains, and the most men. The Wulls fish the Bay of Ice and warn their little ones that ironmen will carry them off if they don’t behave. To reach them Your Grace must pass through the Norrey’s lands, however. They live the nearest to the Gift and have always been good friends to the Watch. I could give you guides.”
“Could?” Stannis missed little. “Or will?”
“Will. You’ll need them. And some sure-footed garrons too. The paths up there are little more than goat tracks.”
“Goat tracks?” The king’s eyes narrowed. “I speak of moving swiftly, and you waste my time with goat tracks?”
“When the Young Dragon conquered Dorne, he used a goat track to bypass the Dornish watchtowers on the Boneway.”
“I know that tale as well, but Daeron made too much of it in that vain-glorious book of his. Ships won that war, not goat tracks. Oakenfist broke the Planky Town and swept halfway up the Greenblood whilst the main Dornish strength was engaged in the Prince’s Pass.” Stannis drummed his fingers on the map. “These mountain lords will not hinder my passage?”
“Only with feasts. Each will try to outdo the others with his hospitality. My lord father said he never ate half so well as when visiting the clans.”
“For three thousand men, I suppose I can endure some pipes and porridge,” the king said, though his tone begrudged even that.
Jon turned to Melisandre. “My lady, fair warning. The old gods are strong in those mountains. The clansmen will not suffer insults to their heart trees.”
That seemed to amuse her. “Have no fear, Jon Snow, I will not trouble your mountain savages and their dark gods. My place is here with you and your brave brothers.”
(Jon IV, ADwD)

Jon's discourse seems to be that the mountain clans can be brought to Stannis' cause by flattery. I think the reason of their presence is more profound.

It seems that the clans hate the Bolton, and love the Starks. It begins with the Liddle, met in the mountains by Bran and his friends.
The Liddle took out a knife and whittled at a stick. “When there was a Stark in Winterfell, a maiden girl could walk the kingsroad in her name-day gown and still go unmolested, and travelers could find fire, bread, and salt at many an inn and holdfast. But the nights are colder now, and doors are closed. There's squids in the wolfswood, and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers.”
(Bran II, ASoS)
Asha recalls the debate in Deepwood Motte.
But the wolves insisted; Roose Bolton could not be suffered to hold Winterfell, and the Ned’s girl must be rescued from the clutches of his bastard. So said Morgan Liddle, Brandon Norrey, Big Bucket Wull, the Flints, even the She-Bear.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

Morgan Liddle is evidently hiding something, since the Liddle (likely his father, known as The Liddle) knows that Bran has survived.

It's not clear whether the hate for the Boltons is due to recent events or is more profound.
“This march was madness. More dying every day, and for what? Some girl?”
“Ned’s girl,” said Morgan Liddle. He was the second of three sons, so the other wolves called him Middle Liddle, though not often in his hearing. It was Morgan who had almost slain Asha in the fight by Deepwood Motte. He had come to her later, on the march, to beg her pardon ... for calling her cunt in his battle lust, not for trying to split her head open with an axe.
“Ned’s girl,” echoed Big Bucket Wull. “And we should have had her and the castle both if you prancing southron jackanapes didn’t piss your satin breeches at a little snow.”
“A little snow?” Peasebury’s soft girlish mouth twisted in fury. “Your ill counsel forced this march upon us, Wull. I am starting to suspect you have been Bolton’s creature all along. Is that the way of it? Did he send you to us to whisper poison in the king’s ear?”
Big Bucket laughed in his face. “Lord Pea Pod. If you were a man, I would kill you for that, but my sword is made of too fine a steel to besmirch with craven’s blood.” He took a drink of ale and wiped his
mouth. “Aye, men are dying. More will die before we see Winterfell. What of it? This is war. Men die in war. That is as it should be. As it has always been.”
Ser Corliss Penny gave the clan chief an incredulous look. “Do you want to die, Wull?”
That seemed to amuse the northman. “I want to live forever in a land where summer lasts a thousand years. I want a castle in the clouds where I can look down over the world. I want to be six-and-twenty again. When I was six-and-twenty I could fight all day and fuck all night. What men want does not matter.
“Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned’s little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Bolton skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue.”
“Aye!” shouted Morgan Liddle. “Blood and battle!” Then all the hill-men were shouting, banging their cups and drinking horns on the table, filling the king’s tent with the clangor.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

“Ned’s girl”. An affective appellation from Big Bucket and Morgan Liddle, undoubtly. The cause of the Starks motivates them almost to the point of fanaticism. However, as we will see, the treacherous Karstarks profess the same attitude.
“You will not take Winterfell!”
“Aye, we will,” came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthor and three grandsons. Lord Arnolf shoved himself up, a vulture rising from its prey. One spotted hand clutched at his son’s shoulder for support. “We’ll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I’ve said as much to His Good Grace the king. March, I said, and before the moon can turn, we’ll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons.”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

But what to make of the fact that The Liddle, absent from Stannis' host, knows that Bran has survived? What to make of the presence of Old Flint and the Norrey at the Wall?

It is certain that the mountain clans have another motivation than helping Stannis to gain the iron throne. It seems that they want to get rid of the Boltons. But which Stark do they plan to support?

The mountain clans are described as quarrelsome, it is not even certain that they all pursue the same goals. There is a little sign of mistrust.
One of Morgan Liddle’s mules had gone astray, but he seemed to think the Flints had stolen him.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

Jon Snow told us that the Wulls and the Flints are the more important of the mountain clans (... win Old Flint and Big Bucket, the rest will follow.)

The Flints are special for many reasons. They have blood ties with the Starks, since Ned Stark's maternal grandmother was a Flint. Their family is ancient and has spread all over the north: branches in Widow's Watch and Flint's Finger. Another branch once held the Wolf's Den. The Flints of Flint's Finger answered Roose's summon to Barrowton and are now with him inside Winterfell. The Flints of Widow's Watch are supposed to follow Manderly, but are nowhere in sight. Old Flint is at the Wall, but is represented by his two sons, the half-brothers Artos and Black Donnel. Artos is a Stark name, the name of the Stark who defeated Redmun Redbeard at Long Lake. The Flint family could be central to the history of the north.

As the Flints are people of the mountains, the Wulls fish the Bay of Ice. It's already a fundamental cultural difference. Theo Wull was with Ned Stark at the Tower of Joy.
“Wull?” said Meera. “Jojen, wasn’t there a Wull who rode with Father during the war?”
“Theo Wull.” Jojen was breathing hard from the climb. “Buckets, they used to call him.” “That’s their sigil,” said Bran. “Three brown buckets on a blue field, with a border of white and
grey checks. Lord Wull came to Winterfell once, to do his fealty and talk with Father, and he had the buckets on his shield. He’s no true lord, though. Well, he is, but they call him just the Wull, and there’s the Knott and the Norrey and the Liddle too. At Winterfell we called them lords, but their own folk don’t.”
(Bran II, ASoS)

The Wull, Big Bucket, is a charismatic character, with an impressive notion of death. But is seems to me that among all the northmen, those who fish the Bay of Ice are the less likely to starve in Winter. Another consequence of their seafaring capabilities could be that they have relations with the wildlings on the Frozen Shore.
The Wull. He has the biggest belly in the mountains, and the most men. The Wulls fish the Bay of Ice and warn their little ones that ironmen will carry them off if they don’t behave.
(Jon IV, ASoS)

It's true that the ironmen raid the Bay of Ice. But they live far away, it seems odd that they would present a more pressing danger  than the willdlings do. Nevertheless, the Wulls don't warn their children about the dangers of the wildlings, like Old Nan did in Winterfell. No the Wulls don't seem to fear the wildlings.

It seems that The Norrey and Old Flint discriminate among wildlings, and their fear of them is moderate.

A point concerning the Red Wedding. It seems some fighters from the mountain were spared alongside the Hornwood archers, the Cerwyn men, etc.

On the way to the Twins, at the crossing of the Trident.
Catelyn turned back to Roose Bolton. “Ser Wendel said something of Lannisters on the Trident?”
“He did, my lady. I blame myself. I delayed too long before leaving Harrenhal. Aenys Frey departed several days before me and crossed the Trident at the ruby ford, though not without difficulty. But by the time we came up the river was a torrent. I had no choice but to ferry my men across in small boats, of which we had too few. Two-thirds of my strength was on the north side when the Lannisters attacked those still waiting to cross. Norrey, Locke, and Burley men chiefly, with Ser Wylis Manderly and his White Harbor knights as rear guard. I was on the wrong side of the Trident, powerless to help them. Ser Wylis rallied our men as best he could, but Gregor Clegane attacked with heavy horse and drove them into the river. As many drowned as were cut down. More fled, and the rest were taken captive.”
Gregor Clegane was always ill news, Catelyn reflected. Would Robb need to march south again to deal with him? Or was the Mountain coming here? “is Clegane across the river, then?”
“No.” Bolton’s voice was soft, but certain. “I left six hundred men at the ford. Spearmen from the rills, the mountains, and the White Knife, a hundred Hornwood longbows, some freeriders and hedge knights, and a strong force of Stout and Cerwyn men to stiffen them. Ronnel Stout and Ser Kyle Condon have the command. Ser Kyle was the late Lord Cerwyn’s right hand, as I’m sure you know, my lady. Lions swim no better than wolves. So long as the river runs high, Ser Gregor will not cross.”
(Catelyn VI, ASoS)

The spearmen from the moutains are not Norrey or Burley, since those remained on the other side of the Trident. The Liddle met by Bran did not seem to like the Boltons. Big Bucket also professes a dislike for House Bolton. But the Karstarks with Stannis also professed a detestation for the Bolton and a desire to avenge the Starks.
“You will not take Winterfell!”
“Aye, we will,” came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthor and three grandsons. Lord Arnolf shoved himself up, a vulture rising from its prey. One spotted hand clutched at his son’s shoulder for support. “We’ll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I’ve said as much to His Good Grace the king. March, I said, and before the moon can turn, we’ll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons.”
Men began to stamp their feet, to pound their fists against the tabletop. Almost all were northmen, Asha noted. Across the fire trench, the south-ron lords sat silent on the benches.
Justin Massey waited until the uproar had died away. Then he said, “Your courage is admirable, Lord Karstark, but courage will not breach the walls of Winterfell. How do you mean to take the castle, pray? With snowballs?”
One of Lord Arnolf’s grandsons gave answer. “We’ll cut down trees for rams to break the gates.” “And die.”
Another grandson made himself heard. “We’ll make ladders, scale the walls.”
“And die.”
Up spoke Arthor Karstark, Lord Arnolf’s younger son. “We’ll raise siege towers.”
“And die, and die, and die.” Ser Justin rolled his eyes. “Gods be good, are all you Karstarks mad?”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

No, they are traitors. But their discourse hardly differs from Big Bucket's. Are there other traitors among the clans? We know that there are quarrels and mistrust among them. In Westeros, populations are rarely homogeneous.


5. Mance and the clans

There are a few signs that Mance Rayder is familiar with the mountain clans.

The first hint is given by Jon when he advises Stannis to pay a visit to the clans.
“Ask, I said, not beg.” Jon pulled back his hand. “It is no good sending messages. Your Grace will need to go to them yourself. Eat their bread and salt, drink their ale, listen to their pipers, praise the beauty of their daughters and the courage of their sons, and you’ll have their swords. The clans have not seen a king since Torrhen Stark bent his knee. Your coming does them honor. Command them to fight for you, and they will look at one another and say, ‘Who is this man? He is no king of mine.’ ”
(Jon IV, ADwD)

So visiting the clans in quality of King-beyond-the-Wall could have earned Mance friends in the mountains. In fact, he could have gained respect in another way.
Clan champions fight with huge two-handed greatswords, while the common men sling stones and batter one another with staffs of mountain ash.
(Jon IV, ADwD)
When Mance, disguised as Rattleshirt, fights Jon Snow, here is his weapon of choice.
The wildling waved away the shield Horse offered him. Instead he asked for a two-handed sword.
(Jon VI, ADwD)

Mance is a formidable fighter who had established his valor versus all would-be-Kings-Beyond-the-Wall. When (what was believed to be) Mance's son is in need of a milkmaid, Old Flint and The Norrey show up at the Wall for Alys Karstark's wedding.
Old Flint and The Norrey had been given places of high honor just below the dais. Both men had been too old to march with Stannis; they had sent their sons and grandsons in their stead. But they had been quick enough to descend on Castle Black for the wedding. Each had brought a wet nurse to the Wall as well.
(Jon X, ADwD)
Why such diligence for Mance's son if the clan chiefs do not have respect for the former King-beyond-the-Wall?

I find odd that the mountain clans did not answer maester Aemon's call for help to save the Wall from the Free Folk. We see that they can mobilize thousands of men for Stannis, we see that Old Flint and the Norrey come swiftly for Alys Karstark's wedding. How is it that they did not send help to the Wall when it was under attack by Mance's host?

Finally, there is a curious hint. The mountain clans call their chiefs "The Norrey", "The Wull" etc. Ned Stark is "The Ned" for them. When Jon Snow asks Mance how the King-beyond-the-Wall should be addressed.
I’m Mance to most, The Mance to some.
(Jon I, ASoS)

It seems to me that there is some indication that the mountain clans would follow Mance Rayder. It depends on what Mance has done to prepare his invasion of the Seven Kingdoms. Perhaps, the indication is that Mance could gain the clans' allegiance by defeating their champion, apparently Morgan Liddle.


6. The Karstarks

Arnolf Karstark has negociated an alliance with Ramsay. We see him at the Dreadfort. Then he has declared for Stannis. We learn through Alys Karstark that he plans to betray Stannis. The Karstark betrayal is an importance piece in Roose's project to defeat Stannis.
“Even ruined and broken, Winterfell remains Lady Arya’s home. What better place to wed her, bed her, and stake your claim? That is only half of it, however. We would be fools to march on Stannis. Let Stannis march on us. He is too cautious to come to Barrowton ... but he must come to Winterfell. His clansmen will not abandon the daughter of their precious Ned to such as you. Stannis must march or lose them ... and being the careful commander that he is, he will summon all his friends and allies when he marches. He will summon Arnolf Karstark.”
Ramsay licked his chapped lips. “And we’ll have him.”
(Reek III, ADwD)
Here is Arnolf at the crofter's village.
Over his armor of plate and mail Ser Richard wore his quilted doublet, blazoned with three death’s-head moths on a field of ash and bone. King Stannis walked beside him. Behind them, struggling to keep pace, Arnolf Karstark came hobbling, leaning on his blackthorn cane. Lord Arnolf had found them eight days past. The northman had brought a son, three grandsons, four hundred spears, two score archers, a dozen mounted lances, a maester, and a cage of ravens ... but only enough provisions to sustain his own.
Karstark was no lord in truth, Asha had been given to understand, only castellan of Karhold for as long as the true lord remained a captive of the Lannisters. Gaunt and bent and crooked, with a left shoulder half a foot higher than his right, he had a scrawny neck, squinty grey eyes, and yellow teeth. A few white hairs were all that separated him from baldness; his forked beard was equal parts white and grey, but always ragged. Asha thought there was something sour about his smiles. Yet if the talk was true, it was Karstark who would hold Winterfell should they take it. Somewhere in the distant past House Karstark had sprouted from House Stark, and Lord Arnolf had been the first of Eddard Stark’s bannermen to declare for Stannis.
So far as Asha knew, the gods of the Karstarks were the old gods of the north, gods they shared with the Wulls, the Norreys, the Flints, and the other hill clans. She wondered if Lord Arnolf had come to view the burning at the king’s behest, that he might witness the power of the red god for himself.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

The forces brought by the Karstarks are significant: four hundred spears, two score archers, a dozen mounted lances, a maester, and a cage of ravens ... but only enough provisions to sustain his own. Such forces may play a determinant role in the forthcoming battle.

With two sons, and three grandsons, one understands why Arnolf wanted to take over Karhold to secure a seat for his progeny, which is the game everyone seems to be playing in the Seven Kingdoms.

The Karstarks pretended to be loyal to the Starks.
You will not take Winterfell!
“Aye, we will,” came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthor and three grandsons. Lord Arnolf shoved himself up, a vulture rising from its prey. One spotted hand clutched at his son’s shoulder for support. “We’ll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I’ve said as much to His Good Grace the king. March, I said, and before the moon can turn, we’ll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons.”
Men began to stamp their feet, to pound their fists against the tabletop. Almost all were northmen, Asha noted. Across the fire trench, the south-ron lords sat silent on the benches.
Justin Massey waited until the uproar had died away. Then he said, “Your courage is admirable, Lord Karstark, but courage will not breach the walls of Winterfell. How do you mean to take the castle, pray? With snowballs?”
One of Lord Arnolf’s grandsons gave answer. “We’ll cut down trees for rams to break the gates.” “And die.”
Another grandson made himself heard. “We’ll make ladders, scale the walls.”
“And die.”
Up spoke Arthor Karstark, Lord Arnolf’s younger son. “We’ll raise siege towers.”
“And die, and die, and die.” Ser Justin rolled his eyes. “Gods be good, are all you Karstarks mad?”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
The Karstark have adopted all the appearances of the northern clans' attitude.

But the Karstarks are unmasked via the Braavosi banker's providential arrival.
Bent and twisted, the castellan of Karhold leaned heavily on his cane as he made his way to the table. Lord Arnolf's cloak was fine grey wool, bordered in black sable and clasped with a silver starburst. A rich garment, Theon thought, on a poor excuse for a man. He had seen that cloak before, he knew, just as he had seen the man who wore it. At the Dreadfort. I remember.  He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell.
The man beside him could only be his son. Fifty, Theon judged, with a round soft face like his father's, if Lord Arnolf went to fat. Behind him walked three younger men. The grandsons, he surmised. One wore a chainmail byrnie. The rest were dressed for breakfast, not for battle. Fools.
"Your Grace." Arnolf Karstark bowed his head. "An honor." He looked for a seat. Instead his eyes found Theon. "And who is this?" Recognition came a heartbeat later. Lord Arnolf paled.
His stupid son remained oblivious. "There are no chairs," the oaf observed. One of the ravens screamed inside its cage.
"Only mine." King Stannis sat in it. "It is no Iron Throne, but here and now it suits." A dozen men had filed through the tower door, led by the knight of the moths and the big man in the silvered breastplate. "You are dead men, understand that," the king went on. "Only the manner of your dying remains to be determined. You would be well advised not to waste my time with denials. Confess, and you shall have the same swift end that the Young Wolf gave Lord Rickard.  Lie, and you will burn.  Choose."
"I choose this." One of the grandsons seized his sword hilt, and made to draw it. 
That proved to be a poor choice. The grandson's blade had not even cleared his scabbard before two of the king's knights were on him. It ended with his forearm flopping in the dirt and blood spurting from his stump, and one of his brothers stumbling for the stairs, clutching a belly wound. He staggered up six steps before he fell, and came crashing back down to the floor.
(Theon, TWoW)
That leaves the Karstark forces undecided.
The door opened. Beyond, the world was white. The knight of the three moths entered, his legs caked with snow. He stomped his feet to knock it off and said, "Your Grace, the Karstarks are taken. A few of them resisted, and died for it. Most were too confused, and yielded quietly. We have herded them all into the longhall and confined them there."
"Well done."
"They say they did not know. The ones we've questioned."
"They would."
"We might question them more sharply... "
"No. I believe them. Karstark could never have hoped to keep his treachery a secret if he shared his plans with every baseborn manjack in his service. Some drunken spearman would have let it slip one night whilst laying with a whore. They did not need to know. They are Karhold men. When the moment came they would have obeyed their lords, as they had done all their lives."
(Theon, TWoW)

In any case the official discourse Arnolf Karstark has dispensed to his men seems the one he professed to Stannis.
“We’ll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I’ve said as much to His Good Grace the king. March, I said, and before the moon can turn, we’ll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons.”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

So Stannis might hope to have the Karstarks at his side. The leadership of the Karstark household can be claimed by Harrion Karstark and by Alys Thenn.

If Harrion Karstark resurfaces, and there is a chance that he does through Manderly, it's possible that the Karstark men would follow their rightful leader into the battle. It seems Alys and the magnar of Thenn have left Castle Black to go to Karhold. So they will not play any role in the coming battle.



7. More northmen

Not all northmen with Stannis belong to the mountain clans.

... more northmen coming in as word spreads of our victory. Fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen, survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell, men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. We are five thousand strong as I write, our numbers swelling every day.
(Jon VII, ADwD)

The survivors of the battle of Winterfell should have told Stannis that Ramsay is responsible for the Sack. Apparently they haven't, since Stannis asks Theon.

Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?
(Theon, TWoW)

Those survivors are said to be men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. Those houses have declared allegiance to House Bolton, even if it is unclear who leads them at the moment. Does it mean that the survivors have renounced their appartenance to houses Hornwood, Cerwyn and Tallhart?

Surely those men are eager for revenge against the Boltons, but they don't seem to constitute a large contingent.

Among the northmen, some are remarkable.
The army covered twenty-two miles the first day, by the reckoning of the guides Lady Sybelle had given them, trackers and hunters sworn to Deepwood with clan names like Forrester and Woods, Branch and Bole.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
Two of those guides are mentioned by name.
They supped that night on a venison stew made from a scrawny hart that a scout called Benjicot Branch had brought down.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
“Branch swears we are only three days from Winterfell,” Ser Richard Horpe told the king that night after the cold count.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)
Certainly a fine hunter. Here is the other one.
“He’s not wrong,” grumbled Ned Woods, one of the scouts from Deepwood. Noseless Ned, he was called; frostbite had claimed the tip of his nose two winters past. Woods knew the wolfwood as well as any man alive. Even the king’s proudest lords had learned to listen when he spoke.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
Noseless Ned and Benjicoot Branch are probably among the scouts that discovered the crofter's village.
The next day the king’s scouts chanced upon an abandoned crofters’ village between two lakes—a mean and meagre place, no more than a few huts, a longhall, and a watchtower.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

Certainly Ned Woods and Benjicoot Branch knew the village, in which an ancient weirwood, possibly a site to blood sacrifice is to be found. Did they lead Stannis deliberately there? They are sworn to Deepwood Motte, and Lady Sybelle is a strong believer in the old gods.


8. The Sacrifices at the Crofter's Village

Here is the village.
The next day the king’s scouts chanced upon an abandoned crofters’ village between two lakes—a mean and meagre place, no more than a few huts, a longhall, and a watchtower.
(The King's Prize, ADwD)

Except for the watchtower, the village resembles a wildling village. Why is it deserted? Did the scouts advise the villagers to leave before Stannis' arrival? Did they simply leave when they saw the army form their watchtower? Did the villagers took refuge in Winterfell? Perhaps they were among the squatters hanged by Roose Bolton?

In addition to the buildings, the village has other interesting features.
The crofter’s village stood between two lakes, the larger dotted with small wooded islands that punched up through the ice like the frozen fists of some drowned giant. From one such island rose a weirwood gnarled and ancient, its bole and branches white as the surrounding snows. Eight days ago Asha had walked out with Aly Mormont to have a closer look at its slitted red eyes and bloody mouth. It is only sap, she’d told herself, the red sap that flows inside these weirwoods. But her eyes were unconvinced; seeing was believing, and what they saw was frozen blood.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

The place is evidently sacred, or has been so in the past. Asha's perception let us suspect it has once been a place for blood sacrifices. It's the first weirwood we see in the wild in the north. I have no idea how common weirwoods are. I suppose that, even in the wolfswood, coming across a weirwood is rare.

So the old gods are watching at the crofter's village.

The crofter's village is the theater of a rivalry between the old gods and the red god. All parties agree that the gods or the god need to be appeased. The sacrifice to the red god is horrific for the onlookers. Stannis is the one who took the decision to let the sacrifice happen. He attended the ceremony until the end.

Here is the prayer.
The Giantslayer raised his arms. “Lord of Light, hear us.
Lord of Light, defend us,” the queen’s men chanted, “for the night is dark and full of terrors.
Ser Godry raised his head toward the darkening sky. “We thank you for the sun that warms us and pray that you will return it to us, Oh lord, that it might light our path to your enemies.” Snowflakes melted on his face. “We thank you for the stars that watch over us by night, and pray that you will rip away this veil that hides them, so we might glory in their sight once more.
Lord of Light, protect us,” the queen’s men prayed, “and keep this savage dark at bay.”
Ser Corliss Penny stepped forward, clutching the torch with both hands. He swung it about his
head in a circle, fanning the flames. One of the captives began to whimper.
R’hllor,” Ser Godry sang, “we give you now four evil men. With glad hearts and true, we give them to your cleansing fires, that the darkness in their souls might be burned away. Let their vile flesh be seared and blackened, that their spirits might rise free and pure to ascend into the light. Accept their blood, Oh lord, and melt the icy chains that bind your servants. Hear their pain, and grant strength to our swords that we might shed the blood of your enemies. Accept this sacrifice, and show us the way to Winterfell, that we might vanquish the unbelievers.
Lord of Light, accept this sacrifice,” a hundred voices echoed. Ser Corliss lit the first pyre with the torch, then thrust it into the wood at the base of the second. A few wisps of smoke began to rise. The captives began to cough. The first flames appeared, shy as maidens, darting and dancing from log to leg. In moments both the stakes were engulfed in fire.
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

The sacrifice has been providentially rewarded by the arrival of Tycho Nestoris. But that did not answer the wishes of Ser Godry, who prays for a clear sky, a melting of the ice, the way to Winterfell and victory over the unbelievers.

Indeed, the Braavosi banker provided none of that, even though he brought a completely different hope for Stannis. It seems that a prayer of Stannis has been answered, but not the prayer formulated by Ser Godry.

Another sacrifice that doesn't dare say its name is coming.
"Wise. I am sorry for your mother, but I do not spare the lives of turncloaks. This one, especially. He slew two sons of Eddard Stark. Every northman in my service would abandon me if I showed him any clemency.  Your brother must die."
 "Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace." The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his chains. "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons.  Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the north. Give him to the tree."
And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."
(Theon, TWoW)
Indeed, the northmen think the old gods need to be appeased.
“What has your southron god to do with snow?” demanded Artos Flint. His black beard was crusted with ice. “This is the wroth of the old gods come upon us. It is them we should appease.”
“Aye,” said Big Bucket Wull. “Red Rahloo means nothing here. You will only make the old gods angry. They are watching from their island.”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)

The sacrifice of Theon would echo a scene in the Winterfell godswood. It would even fulfill a promise made to him by Rowan.
“There will be no more o’ that, I promise. You prayed, and the gods sent us. You want to die as Theon? We’ll give you that. A nice quick death, ’twill hardly hurt at all.” She smiled. “But not till you’ve sung for Abel. He’s waiting for you.”
(A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD)

Does it matter that Theon has King's blood? What will the sacrifice bring?


9. Asha Greyjoy


One point intrigues me about Asha Greyjoy. What are her projects for Sea Dragon Point after her conquest of Deepwood Motte? She treated with considerable respect the Glovers, presumably because of her inner decency, and also, perhaps, because she intended to have good relations with them as neighbors. Even her men do not seem to know the plan.

“You are clinging to Sea Dragon Point the way a drowning man clings to a bit of wreckage. What does Sea Dragon have that anyone could ever want? There are no mines, no gold, no silver, not even tin or iron. The land is too wet for wheat or corn.”
I do not plan on planting wheat or corn. “What’s there? I’ll tell you. Two long coastlines, a hundred hidden coves, otters in the lakes, salmon in the rivers, clams along the shore, colonies of seals offshore, tall pines for building ships.”

(The Wayward Bride, ADwD)

I am more intrigued by the passage that precedes this exchange.

Sea Dragon Point had not always been as thinly peopled as it was now. Old ruins could still be found amongst its hills and bogs, the remains of ancient strongholds of the First Men. In the high places, there were weirwood circles left by the children of the forest.

(The Wayward Bride, ADwD)

Asha has developped a respect for the old gods and the customs of the north. In particular, she suggested to Stannis to give Theon's life to a weirwood rather than to his red god.

"Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace."  The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his chains.  "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear.  That is how Eddard Stark would have done it.  Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons.  Give him to Lord Eddard's gods.  The old gods of the north.  Give him to the tree."

(Theon, TWoW)

In view of the final letter, let's try to determine what Asha knows about the situations at Winterfell and at the Wall.

Asha has been to Winterfell to meet her brother, after he had conquered the castle. Her visit had been a short one, less than a day. She left ten of her men that remained with Theon until shortly before the sack. She has seen "Reek" while in Winterfell. If she were to meet Ramsay, she would recognize him. However she didn't know that Ramsay contributed to any particular crime. She might only know that "Reek" left Winterfell at about the same time than she did.

She has ridden with Stannis from Deepwood Motte. There is no sign that she has been informed of what happened at the Wall. But it's possible that Justin Massey has talked to her. So there is no limit on what Asha could have learnt about the events at the Wall. It might even be that Massey has learned things when he was a "wrong-way ranger" and told her. It is likely that Massey and Horpe's mission as "the wrong-way rangers" was to go to The Last Hearth to negociate Crowfood's loyalty to Stannis. 

After Tycho Nestoris and his escort from the Night's Watch reached Stannis, it's even possible that Asha learnt all the events until the arrival of Selyse.

Regarding the situation in Winterfell, Asha could speak in private with Theon for a few moments.

My sister, Theon thought, my sweet sister.
Though he had lost all feeling in his arms, he felt the twisting in his gut, the same as when that bloodless Braavosi banker presented him to Asha as a 'gift.' The memory still rankled. The burly, balding knight who'd been with her had wasted no time shouting for help, so they'd had no more than a few moments before Theon was dragged away to face the king.
That was long enough. He had hated the look on Asha's facewhen she realized who he was; the shock in her eyes, the pity in her voice, the way her mouth twisted in disgust. Instead of rushing forward to embrace him, she had taken half a stepbackwards. "Did the Bastard do this to you?" she had asked."Don't you call him that." Then the words came spilling out of Theon in a rush. He tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen. By then Theon knew how strange and incoherent all this sounded, yet somehow the words would not stop. He was cold and sick and tired... and weak, so weak, so very weak.
She has to understand. She is my sister. He never wanted to do any harm to Bran or Rickon. Reek made him kill those boys, not
him Reek but the other one. "I am no kinslayer," he insisted. He told her how he bedded down with Ramsay's bitches, warned her that Winterfell was full of ghosts. "The swords were gone. Four, I think, or five. I don't recall. The stone kings are angry." He was shaking by then, trembling like an autumn leaf. "The heart tree knew my name. The old gods. Theon, I heard them whisper. There was no wind but the leaves were moving. Theon, they said. My name is Theon." It was good to say the name. The more he said it, the less like he was to forget. "You have to know your name," he'd told his sister. "You...you told me you were Esgred, but that was a lie. Your name is Asha."

"It is," his sister had said, so softly that he was afraid that she might cry. Theon hated that. He hated women weeping.

(Theon, TWoW)

It is not simple to decide what sense Asha made of all this. It is not impossible that she understood that Theon says that Ramsay is Reek. The sentence Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen  does not mean that Theon revealed Abel's true identity. Indeed, there is no sign that Theon knows Abel's true identity. Most likely, Asha saw only madness in Theon.

There is a possibility that Dagmer Cleftjaw plays a role during the battle. Indeed, just like Asha, Dagmer has received a threatening letter from the Boltons, with a piece of Theon's skin. Dagmer appears to be a loyal Greyjoy man. He shouldn't stay passive in such a situation. So there is a good chance that he would come to Theon and Asha's rescue. Torrhen's Square is not so far away.


10. Alysane Mormont


With a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, a disinherited son in exile with the Queen-over-the-sea, a reputation for skinchanging, House Mormont is visibly very important to the whole story.

Alysanne Mormont is the only member of the house we see at the time of the Winterfell wedding. She is alone among the northmen with Stannis to have fought the ironmen without taking her lead from Stannis.

She is never mentioned with her mother during the campaign of the Young Wolf. It's not entirely clear if she remained in Bear Island. Almost all that we know come from the following passage.
“Do you have brothers?” Asha asked her keeper.
“Sisters,” Alysane Mormont replied, gruff as ever. “Five, we were. All girls. Lyanna is back on Bear Island. Lyra and Jory are with our mother. Dacey was murdered.”
“The Red Wedding.”
“Aye.” Alysane stared at Asha for a moment. “I have a son. He’s only two. My daughter’s nine.” “You started young.”
“Too young. But better that than wait too late.”
A stab at me, Asha thought, but let it be. “You are wed.”
“No. My children were fathered by a bear.” Alysane smiled. Her teeth were crooked, but there was something ingratiating about that smile. “Mormont women are skinchangers. We turn into bears and find mates in the woods. Everyone knows.”
Asha smiled back. “Mormont women are all fighters too.”
The other woman’s smile faded. “What we are is what you made us. On Bear Island every child learns to fear krakens rising from the sea.”

(The King's Prize, ADwD)

Like the mountain clans, it seems that Alysanne has taken Stannis as king, despite what Lyanna Mormont had answered to Stannis, when the king asked for fealty.
Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK.
It seems Alysanne wasn't on the Island at the time, otherwise she would have answered herself. What was she doing then?

Alysanne has fought the ironmen in Deepwood Motte, as Stannis reports to Jon Snow, via raven.
And we had other help, unexpected but most welcome, from a daughter of Bear Island. Alysane Mormont, whose men name her the She-Bear, hid fighters inside a gaggle of fishing sloops and took the ironmen unawares where they lay off the strand. Greyjoy’s longships are burned or taken, her crews slain or surrendered. The captains, knights, notable warriors, and others of high birth we shall ransom or make other use of, the rest I mean to hang ...
(Jon VII, ADwD)
Certainly the Mormonts have joined Stannis for the same reason than the mountain clans.

Stannis gives order to Justin Massey shortly before the battle at the crofter's village.
"The black brothers will accompany you as far as Castle Black," the king went on. "The ironmen are to remain here, supposedly to fight for us. Another gift from Tycho Nestoris. Just as well, they would only slow you down. Ironmen were made for ships, not horses. Lady Arya should have a female companion as well. Take Alysane Mormont."
(Theon, TWoW)


11. Tycho Nestoris

The Bravosi banker reached briefly Winterfell and met Crowfood as Crowfood was blowing horns. Note that no horn was heard before the hooded man entered Winterfell. So it does not seem that the hooded man came to Winterfell in company of the banker.

Tycho Nestoris might be more involved in the situation in the north than we are led to believe. We know that he arrived in Eastwatch with a little fleet.
“Cotter Pyke informs me that you came to Eastwatch with three ships. A galleas, a galley, and a cog.”
“Just so, my lord. The crossing can be perilous in this season. One ship alone may founder, where three together may aid one another. The Iron Bank is always prudent in such matters.”

(Jon IX, ADwD)

The banker's explanation is a little odd. Earlier, when Davos was in White Harbor, he inquired about the ships currently in the harbor.
The dockside wharves were swarming. A clutter of small boats were tied up along the fish market, off-loading their catches. He saw three river runners too, long lean boats built tough to brave the swift currents and rocky shoots of the White Knife. It was the seagoing vessels that interested him most, however; a pair of carracks as drab and tattered as the Merry Midwife, the trading galley Storm Dancer, the cogs Brave Magister and Horn of Plenty, a galleas from Braavos marked by her purple hull and sails ...
... and there beyond, the warship.
(Davos II, ADwD)

The warship had been sent by the Iron Throne and it brought the Freys to White Harbor. The galleas from Braavos is more interesting. The purple hull and sails mark it as an official ship.

Even earlier, a small fleet was present at Maidenpool.
A galley, a galleas, and a big two- masted cog were in port, along with a score of little fishing boats.
(Brienne III, ADwD)

So Tycho Nestoris has had an interesting itinerary before he reached Winterfell. What happened during his stop in White Harbor?

The small fleet was in White Harbor when Davos has been arrested and executed by Manderly. The news of this execution arrived in King's Landing precisely when Cersei dismissed the other envoy from the Iron Bank of Braavos: Noho Dimittis. So Tycho Nestoris began his periple in the north before the Iron Throne had refused to pay its debts.

Let's examine the group of people that accompany him in Winterfell. He has taken a few ironmen in his service.
“My lady.” Tristifer Botley took a knee. “The Maid is here as well. Roggon, Grimtongue, Fingers, Rook ... six of us, all those fit enough to ride. Cromm died of his wounds.”
(The Sacrifice, ADwD)
There are also a few men from the Night's Watch send to guide the banker.
When the tip of her nose turned black from frostbite, and the one of the riders from the Night's Watch told her she might lose a piece of it, Jeyne had wept over that as well.
(Theon, TWoW)

We are never told who are these men. They were guides chosen by Jon Snow. He might have chosen them among the men from the mountain clans since Tycho Nestoris was looking for Stannis in Deepwood Motte. Certain events at the Wall have been reported by them, in particular the arrival of Selyse at Castle Black, and perhaps the disappearance of Val. But the banker and these men left the Wall before the marriage of Alys Karstark and before the return of Val.

Among the men with Asha in Deepwood Motte, there were ten men she left with Theon in Winterfell and who abandoned Theon before the Sack.
They made a pitifully small assembly; the ironmen were few, the yard large. “The northmen will be on us before nightfall,” he told them. “Ser Rodrik Cassel and all the lords who have come to his call. I will not run from them. I took this castle and I mean to hold it, to live or die as Prince of Winterfell. But I will not command any man to die with me. If you leave now, before Ser Rodrik’s main force is upon us, there’s still a chance you may win free.” He unsheathed his longsword and drew a line in the dirt. “Those who would stay and fight, step forward.”
No one spoke. The men stood in their mail and fur and boiled leather, as still as if they were made of stone. A few exchanged looks. Urzen shuffled his feet. Dykk Harlaw hawked and spat. A finger of wind ruffled Endehar’s long fair hair.
Theon felt as though he were drowning. Why am I surprised? he thought bleakly. His father had forsaken him, his uncles, his sister, even that wretched creature Reek. Why should his men prove any more loyal? There was nothing to say, nothing to do. He could only stand there beneath the great grey walls and the hard white sky, sword in hand, waiting, waiting...
Wex was the first to cross the line. Three quick steps and he stood at Theon’s side, slouching. Shamed by the boy, Black Lorren followed, all scowls. “Who else?” he demanded. Red Rolfe came forward. Kromm. Werlag. Tymor and his brothers. Ulf the Ill. Harrag Sheepstealer. Four Harlaws and two Botleys. Kenned the Whale was the last. Seventeen in all.
Urzen was among those who did not move, and Stygg, and every man of the ten that Asha had brought from Deepwood Motte. “Go, then,” Theon told them. “Run to my sister. She’ll give you all a warm welcome, I have no doubt.”
Stygg had the grace at least to look ashamed. The rest moved off without a word. Theon turned to the seventeen who remained. “Back to the walls. If the gods should spare us, I shall remember every man of you.”
(Theon VI, ACoK)

There is no sign that Theon recognized any of these men. We never knew what did Urzen and Stygg become. Both have refused to stay loyal to Theon, presumably because they have been slighted by Theon before (Urzen insulted for having let Bran and Rickon escape, and Stygg been deprived of a female captive). We do not know if they went to Deepwood Motte or to Torrhen's Square. We have no sign of their coming to Deepwood Motte, despite what Theon thinks, and Asha did seem to have heard any account of the end of Winterfell.

Before the battle several people are dispatched to the Wall by Stannis: Tycho Nestoris, Justin Massey, "Arya", Alysane Mormont, the men of the Night's Watch that accompanied Tycho to Deepwood Motte. Here are Stannis' orders to Massey.
"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."
Pay it, aye, thought Theon. Pay it with false coin. Jon Snow would see through the impostesure at once. Lord Stark's sullen bastard had known Jeyne Poole, and he had always been fond of his little half-sister Arya. 
"The black brothers will accompany you as far as Castle Black," the king went on. "The ironmen are to remain here, supposedly to fight for us. Another gift from Tycho Nestoris. Just as well, they would only slow you down. Ironmen were made for ships, not horses. Lady Arya should have a female companion as well. Take Alysane Mormont."
Ser Justin pushed back his hair again. "And Lady Asha?"
The king considered that a moment. "No."

(Theon, TWoW)

So it is unlikely these characters will play any role in the coming battle.


12. The Conspirators

It seems that a conspiracy involving Mance, Crowfood, the hooded man has organised the escape of "Arya" from Winterfell. It seems likely that Manderly is involved. The participation of Whoresbane and some of the Ryswells can be suspected.

Apparently the conspirators made no effort to reach Stannis. Crowfood has not informed Stannis of his forces.
"As you will. Tell me, Theon, how many men did Mors Umber have with him at Winterfell?"
"None. No men." He grinned at his own wit. "He had boys. I saw them." Aside from a handful of half-crippled serjeants, the warriors that Crowfood had brought down from Last Hearth were hardly old enough to shave. "Their spears and axes were older than the hands that clutched them. It was Whoresbane Umber who had the men, inside the castle. I saw them too. Old men, every one." Theon tittered. "Mors took the green boys and Hother took the greybeards. All the real men went with the Greatjon and died at the Red Wedding. Is that what you wanted to know, Your Grace?"
King Stannis ignored the jibe. "Boys," was all he said, disgusted. "Boys will not hold Lord Bolton long."
(Theon, TWoW)

Whoresbane has never informed Stannis of Karstark's betrayal. Indeed, Jon Snow's letter reached Stannis at the last minute. Theon recalls the meeting of Whoresbane, Karstark and Ramsay at the Dreadfort.
Bent and twisted, the castellan of Karhold leaned heavily on his cane as he made his way to the table. Lord Arnolf's cloak was fine grey wool, bordered in black sable and clasped with a silver starburst. A rich garment, Theon thought, on a poor excuse for a man. He had seen that cloak before, he knew, just as he had seen the man who wore it. At the Dreadfort. I remember. He sat and supped with Lord Ramsay and Whoresbane Umber, the night they brought Reek up from his cell.
(Theon, TWoW)
Manderly has made no effort to reach Stannis.
"Wyman Manderly." The king's mouth twisted in contempt. "Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. And the Freys... has the Red Wedding been forgotten?"
(Theon, TWoW)

However the conspirators, at least Mance and Crowfood, have already made their moves: the murders in Winterfell, the crumbling of the stables, the horns and drums have caused too much tension to let the Manderlys, Freys, etc cohabitate. Crowfood has continued with the ambush of the Freys.
The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"
"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls.  So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys.  The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now."
(Theon, TWoW)
Such moves make no sense, if the conspirators have not something to follow.

I conclude that the conspirators have a plan to defeat the Boltons without Stannis' help.

That leads again to the notion that Manderly might have troops in the vicinity. Here is a reminder of Manderly's strength in White Harbor.
Wyman Manderly lurched ponderously to his feet. “I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife. Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck. My walls are strong, and my vaults are full of silver. Oldcastle and Widow’s Watch will take their lead from me. My bannermen include a dozen petty lords and a hundred landed knights. I can deliver King Stannis the allegiance of all the lands east of the White Knife, from Widow’s Watch and Ramsgate to the Sheepshead Hills and the headwaters of the Broken Branch. All this I pledge to do if you will meet my price.”
(Davos IV, ADwD)

Manderly has merely a hundred knights with him in Winterfell. Considering that a hundred landed knights are sworn to White Harbor, and that mere knights generally outnumber landed knights by far in any given region, I conclude that Manderly can summon hundreds of knights. Davos saw Manderly raising men.

What did Manderly do with those troops if not bring them to fight the Boltons. Separating the Freys from the Bolton forces before attacking Winterfell, seemed a reasonable plan.

However, some of Manderly forces are up the White Knife, and many of the men he has raised are from the White Knife. It seems logical to me that Manderly has prepared an ambush at some crossing of the river.

In particular, if Whoresbane's participation in the conspiracy is real, the conspirators could count on his troops inside the castle.
“The Whoresbane his own self,” claimed a riverman who’d just brought a load of hides and timber down the White Knife, “with three hundred spear-men and a hundred archers. Some Hornwood men have joined them, and Cerwyns too.”
(Davos II, ADwD)
A hundred archers is a remarkable number. Recall what Maester Luwin told Theon.
“If you had a hundred archers as good as yourself, you might have a chance to hold the castle,” a voice said softly.
(Theon VI, ACoK)

I am note sure Whoresbane will engage his troops in the battle anytime soon. However it is worthwile to recall the axiom enounciated by Crowfood.
Stannis ground his teeth. “He informs me that Umber will not fight Umber, for any cause.”
(Jon IV, ADwD)

Surely it has been repeated by Whoresbane to Roose. Therefore, Whoresbane will refuse to leave the castle to fight Crowfood. We might expect Whoresbane to remain inside.

The conjectural connection between Mance and the clans might be part of the conspiracy.


13. Outlook of the battle

A priori, the forces involved are the Frey host, the Manderly host, the conspirators' hypothetical hidden forces, the Dreadfort men, the Queen's men, the clans, the Karstarks, the Umbers, the Ryswells, the Barrowton men, various northmen without any clear leader (men sworn to the Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Tallharts).

The weather conditions made moving in the snow extraordinarily difficult. The visibility is reduced to ten feet outside Winterfell. One wonders how one can move at all, and why did the Freys accept to leave the castle.

While being numerous, and well equipped, the Frey forces seem likely to be the first to go: they are poorly led after the death of Aenys and Hosteen is the type to fall into traps.
The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"
"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls.  So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys.  The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now."
(Theon, TWoW)

Being from the south, the Freys are not used to fight in the snow, where Crowfood and the northern clans will outmaneuver them in all probability.

Crowfood is purely pursuing guerilla tactics, and we can suppose he is cooperating with his brother inside the castle. The guerilla tactic can only lead him so far. They have to be part of a larger strategy, which leads us to his possible coconspirator.

The Manderly forces riding out in the snow made no sense if did not intend to join a larger force. Manderly has made no effort to reach Stannis.
"Wyman Manderly." The king's mouth twisted in contempt. "Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. And the Freys... has the Red Wedding been forgotten?"
(Theon, TWoW)

I presume Manderly has allies outside beside Crowfood. Since Manderly is too-fat-to-sit-a-horse, and beside severely wounded, the troops are commanded, I presume, by the knight who took the defense of his liege lord in the Great Hall.
Four White Harbor knights had formed a ring around Lord Wyman, as Maester Medrick labored over him to staunch his bleeding. “First you must needs come through us, ser,” said the eldest of them, a hard-faced greybeard whose bloodstained surcoat showed three silvery mermaids upon a violet field.
(Theon, ADwD)

The only thing of interest that I can say about this knight, is that he is not Marlon Manderly, commander of the garrison at White Harbor, and right hand of Wyman Manderly. So Ser Marlon is somewhere else, commanding the main part of the Manderly forces. Robett Glover might have been with him.

According to Theon, the Bolton forces are split, the smaller part is with Ramsay looking for his bride, and perhaps his Reek. The larger part is inside the castle, with Whoresbane, the Ryswells, the Dustins. Visibly, Roose is unwilling to fight outside the castle. He is prepared for a long siege.
Lord Bolton had laid by enough wood to keep the fires fed for half a year, so the Great Hall was always warm and cozy.
(The Turncloak, ADwD)

It seems Winterfell is short on food to feed the large host. However, after the battle, the number of mouthes is to be dramatically reduced, I presume. Regarding the coming battle, the Boltons have now a big weakness: they counted on the Karstark betrayal, which has been uncovered. Ramsay seems more preoccupied by recovering his bride, and his Reek.
"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."
(Theon, TWoW)

The list of Stannis' weaknesses is long: his own army is so undermined by the cold, the starvation, the decimation of his horses, that it has almost disintegrated. Only the fanaticism of the Queen's men remains. The king has to rely largely on the northmen, who might not care about him, but who appeared to be good fighters, determined, fearless, and well equipped for the conditions. Stannis seems to have a good tactical idea when we last saw him. But he makes the mistake of underestimating Ramsay.
Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"
You must not call him that! A wave of pain washed over Theon Greyjoy. He closed his eyes and grimaced. When he opened them again, he said, "You do not know him."
"No more than he knows me." 
(Theon, TWoW)
Let's start our naïve prediction on this basis.

It would seem that in reason of their number the Freys can not be defeated by Crowfood and Manderly. But I tend to believe that Stannis and his northmen would beat the Freys easily.

Defeating the Freys, and perhaps joining the Manderlys would give Stannis no means to conquer Winterfell, unless he attempted to prevail by guile.

Note that I find unlikely that Roose would be fooled by the trick of false prisoners. Indeed he has used the ploy to conquer Harrenhal with Robett Glover.

In my view, there are several wild cards in the manner the events will play out.
  • We saw how the sacrifice to the red god has provided the arrival of Tycho Nestoris, saviour of Stannis' hopes. Theon is about to be sacrificed to the old gods. What will the outcome be?
  • The two ravens brought by Maester Tybald seem inhabited, probably by Bran and Lord Brynden. Can they change the course of events?
  • Inside the Stannis camp, antagonism is mounting between the northmen and the Queen's men. It's plain that they won't stay allies for long. Stannis might have to choose. Moreover, after the arrest of the Karstarks, mistrust is building up among the northmen.
  • What is Stannis' mysterious tactic? Under all likehood, he will make use of the frozen lakes to trap the Freys' heavy horses.
  • It seems plausible that Manderly has forces outside the castle, since his forces inside are insufficent to face the Boltons and Freys. It is plain that, given what we saw in White Harbor, Manderly has many sworn swords in reserve.
  • The remote possibility exists that Manderly has Harrion Karstark in his sleeve, and might take control of the Karhold men currently held by Stannis through this mean.
  • Less remote is the possibility that Davos has completed his mission and brought back Rickon to the continent. It is then possible that Rickon is in the Winterfell area, rather than safe in White Harbor. Perhaps at Castle Cerwyn.
  • There is so much hate among Roose's "allies" that they might destroy each other before they fight Stannis. Ramsay's interest is to see the Freys defeated. The Freys and Manderlys hate each other more than hate anybody else, except perhaps Ramsay. Many northmen with Roose would rather get rid of the Freys and of Ramsay.
  • The wildest card of all is Ramsay himself. We saw how successful all his initiatives have consistently been. Consider the battle of Winterfell, that he won brilliantly at a clear numerical disadvantage. I see no reason for his good fortune to desert him yet. Stannis should take Theon's advice seriously: "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear." I am not surprised that Ramsay prevailed in the battle.


14. The Letter

We are going to study neither the authorship of the letter, nor its material form, nor the manner of its delivery, nor the circumstances of its writing. All that will be done elsewhere.

If the content of the letter is not truthful, there is no point considering it. Let's suppose it has been written entirely sincerely. Here is what it says about the battle.
Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.
Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.
I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.
I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess.
I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

It was signed,
Ramsay Bolton,
Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.
(Jon XIII, ADwD)

Let's take as literal truth the seven days of battle. The battle started as soon as the Freys left Winterell. Indeed, they were ambushed by Crowfood. Three days are necessary to reach the crofter's village from Winterfell. Indeed Roose said of Stannis, as he ordered the armies to leave for battle.
His host lies not three days’ ride from here, snowbound and starving, and I for one am tired of waiting on his pleasure.
(Theon, ADwD)

So three days were needed to reach Stannis. We can presume that a day of battle happened at the village, and that the victors needed another three days to return to Winterfell. That amounts to seven days. It seems to me to be a simple and logical explanation for the stated duration.

It implies that some further fighting happened on the return to Winterfell. Otherwise we would have only three or four days of battle. Did this fighting involve the additional Manderly troops?

A few things should be noticed: Stannis' head is not above the Walls of Winterfell. Ramsay has convinced himself of his death because he has acquired the sword. So we may think Stannis is alive. There are hints that Stannis might fake his death, as he explained to Justin Massey.
"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."
The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead... "
"... you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt."
Ser Justin put one hand on his sword hilt. "On my honor as a knight, you have my word."
(Theon, TWoW)
But Stannis tells Massey that he won't desert his men.
"Is that your counsel? That I should flee?" The king's face darkened. "That was your counsel on the Blackwater as well, as I recall. When the battle turned against us, I let you and Horpe chivvy me back to Dragonstone like a whipped cur."
"The day was lost, Your Grace."
"Aye, that was what you said. 'The day is lost, sire. Fall back now, that you may fight again.' And now you would have me scamper off across the narrow sea... "
 "... to raise an army, aye. As Bittersteel did after the Battle of the Redgrass Field, where Daemon Blackfyre fell."
 "Do not prate at me of history, ser. Daemon Blackfyre was a rebel and usurper, Bittersteel a bastard. When he fled, he swore he would return to place a son of Daemon's upon the Iron Throne. He never did. Words are wind, and the wind that blows exiles across the narrow sea seldom blows them back. That boy Viserys Targaryen spoke of return as well. He slipped through my fingers at Dragonstone, only to spend his life wheedling after sellswords. 'The Beggar King,' they called him in the Free Cities.  Well, I do not beg, nor will I flee again. I am Robert's heir, the rightful king of Westeros. My place is with my men. Yours is in Braavos. Go with the banker, and do as I have bid."
(Theon, TWoW)
So Stannis wouldn't fake his death and flee the battle barring unforeseen circumstances.

It is not surprising that the bride is missing, since Stannis sent her to Castle Black. The absence of Theon, and the belief that Theon is alive is more surprising.

So Theon and Stannis are not accounted for. Neither is Asha, nor are the six ironmen left to Stannis by Tycho Nestoris. I would venture the guess that all ironmen flew the battle together. They surely tried to bring Theon with them, if he escaped the sacrifice, and perhaps even Stannis. The natural destination for them could be Torrhen's Square, currently held by Dagmer Cleftjaw, unless it has been freed by the Dustins and Ryswells at some point.

It seems that more fighting happened when Ramsay returned to Winterfell. Perhaps the heads on the walls belong to the foes he defeated there.

To whom did the heads above Winterfell belong? They are described as "your false king's friends". Stannis has no genuine friends in the north, or anywhere else, just allies of circumstancess. Manderly? The clansmen? Asha Greyjoy? Crowfood? Whoresbane? Some Ryswells? Barbrey Dustin? Robett Glover?

The clansmen could have been defeated in the battle. But might also have melted in the forest, using their camouflaging capabilities.

The whereabouts of Barbrey Dustin seems an important question. Barbrey had disappeared the night before the escape, since we did not see her on the morning the armies left Winterfell. She did not desert Roose's cause, since the Ryswells were still present, and Roger Ryswell was apparently in a good mood.

If Ramsay came back victorious in Winterfell. It seems plausible that Roose returned to the Dreadfort with Walda and his host and left Winterfell to Ramsay.

The presence of heads above the walls of Winterfell is not quite Ramsay motus operandi. In Moat Cailin, the defeated ironmen were flayed and put on post along the kingsroad. Ramsay brings up the flaying tradition over and over, to the point of carrying a flaying knife assorted to his sword at all times. The heads above the walls of Winterfell seem like Roose Bolton's behaviour. We never saw Roose flay anyone in the story. When Roose conquered Harrenhal, he did display the heads of the people he had executed.
The heads had been dipped in tar to slow the rot. Every morning when Arya went to the well to draw fresh water for Roose Bolton’s basin, she had to pass beneath them. They faced outward, so she never saw their faces, but she liked to pretend that one of them was Joffrey’s. She tried to picture how his pretty face would look dipped in tar. If I was a crow I could fly down and peck off his stupid fat pouty lips.
The heads never lacked for attendants. The carrion crows wheeled about the gatehouse in raucous unkindness and quarreled upon the ramparts over every eye, screaming and cawing at each other and taking to the air whenever a sentry passed along the battlements. Sometimes the maester’s ravens joined the feast as well, flapping down from the rookery on wide black wings. When the ravens came the crows would scatter, only to return the moment the larger birds were gone.
(Arya X, ACoK)
So it would seem Roose presided over the victory at Winterfell.

If seems to me that Ramsay would sign the letter as Lord of the Dreadfort, if he could. Indeed he announced himself as Lord of the Hornwood and heir to the Dreadfort at the wedding. The lordship of the Dreadfort counts more than the lordship of Winterfell since the Iron Throne has made Lord Bolton Warden of the north. So Ramsay is not Lord of the Dreadfort. It means that either Roose is alive, or Walda has managed to secure the Dreadfort for her unborn child. If a succession conflict arose, it seems to me that Walton Steelshanks could be the one who would decide the inheritance. He seems to be the Roose's most trusted man. Roose might have instructed what to do if he were to die. Walton seems to command obedience from his men. My guess is that he would chose Walda over Ramsay. In any case, Ramsay does not have the Dreadfort host in his command, if his signature of the letter is to be trusted.

I find unlikely that Roose has been betrayed and killed, whether by a northman in Winterfell or by Ramsay. Indeed, Roose is extremely cautious and has always been one move ahead of everybody in his political calculations. So his demise can only be the result of unforeseen events. Roose took some precautions in Moat Cailin.
Collared and chained and back in rags again, Reek followed with the other dogs at Lord Ramsay’s heels when his lordship strode forth to greet his father. When the rider in the dark armor removed his helm, however, the face beneath was not one that Reek knew. Ramsay’s smile curdled at the sight, and anger flashed across his face. “What is this, some mockery?”
“Just caution,” whispered Roose Bolton, as he emerged from behind the curtains of the enclosed wagon.

(Reek II, ADwD)

If Roose has left Ramsay in charge of Winterfell, it is unclear how many men would be sworn to Ramsay there. Apparently only as many as Roose would be willing to leave. Considering that Ramsay does not mention his father in the letter, it might be that the relationship between father and son has not warmed after the battle. In principle, Roose should leave several hundred men to run and defend such a large castle.

It seems to me that Ramsay can only count on the Bastard Boys: Luton, Yellow Dick, Grunt, Sour Alyn, Damon-dance-for-me, Skinner and Ben Bones. Luton and Yellow Dick are dead. Grunt and Sour Alyn are responsible for "Arya"'s escape and Theon fears that Ramsay will punish them so severely that we might never see them again. Damon and Skinner are Ramsay's favorites torturers. It's possible they took care of the washerwomen and Mance when Ramsay left to deliver battle. If Ramsay went out to search for "Arya", he probably brought Ben Bones and the bitches.

Beside the Bastard's boys, Big Walder remains as Ramsay's squire. Finally, there is Ramsay's companion: Whoresbane, who has four hundred men with him.

However, if Ramsay thinks he can threaten Castle Black, he must have the military means to do that, unless he is bluffing.

So it seems that Ramsay is in Winterfell with Whoresbane, Big Walder and whatever men from the Dreadfort are still with him. Perhaps Ramsay took in his service some survivors of the battle. The remaining Freys returned to the Riverlands, of went with Walda. Other northmen are without their bodies over the walls of Winterfell, or returned home. It doesn't seem Ramsay rules over the Dreadfort, Roose alive or not.



The Winterfell Huis Clos